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Something interesting to think about: The Amish not only heavily restrict their member's Internet access, but commonly eschew the Internet altogether. Accordi
by lupatus 14y ago
Something interesting to think about:
The Amish not only heavily restrict their member's Internet access, but commonly eschew the Internet altogether.
According to the 2010 census, there were 249000 Amish in the USA [1] and their population is doubling at the rate of about every 14 years. If you suppose that they will maintain that birth rate (which it seems likely to me that they will because they maintained about that birth throughout the past 100+ years of societal and technological development), and you simply extrapolate that out (which has its own merits and demerits, I know), you get about 1.6 billion Amish by the end of the century [2]. Regardless of whether or not the Amish grow to be just that large of a group, it seems to me that they will substantial demographic in the USA during the latter half of the 21st Century.
What will a voting block that big in the USA do with things like Internet regulation? How soon until Google Translate supports Pennsylvania Deutsch as a language option? When will we see HN discussing startups targeting the Amish market?
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amish http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amish
[2]Year Amish Population
2010 249000
2024 498000
2038 996000
2052 1992000
2066 3984000
2080 7968000
2094 15936000
Edit: Updated for formatting
- scott_s 14y agoI find it extraordinarily unlikely because of the Amish's lifestyle. The Amish do not eschew technology because they think it is evil. They have, actually, adopted some modern technology in their communities with restricted access. They eschew technology because they rationally recognize that adopting it will significantly change their lifestyle. The kind of population increases you're talking about would require them to have cities - they would need communities with greater density. Individuals would also have to start specializing in much the same way modern cities do. That's the sort of thing they do not want. Something would have to give. If such an expansion of their population happened, they would not be recognizably "Amish" anymore.
- lupatus 14y agoAt first glance, my reaction was also, "No way, not happening." But, I know some Amish and former-Amish personally and can attest that they think it is part of their Christian duty to "be fruitful and multiply." I also know that they are busy establishing new colonies in unconventional locations like Alaska. Additionally, they are branching into non-agrarian businesses like construction and furniture in order to support their large families. With the population of the USA mostly moving to urban areas, the prices of farmland and rural real estate has been dropping. In some regions, the Amish are already scooping that up. What I wonder is if the Amish will continue to let us "English" develop whatever technologies that we want or if they will impose restrictive regulations. It could be very strange if Kurzweil's Singularity comes in 2050, but a large chunk of the population is living as if it were 1850 and just ignores the Singularity.
- scott_s 14y agoVery interesting, and I admit I had not considered it. But I still feel that once their communities grow that large, they will become less "Amish" in nature. But, we shall see.
- lupatus 14y agoHa! So, I can't count apparently. That was 15 million as the final number in the table. The Amish don't get to 1.5 billion until 2186.