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We're just beginning to experience a shuffling of the top companies. Remember FAANG? Just look at how bad the products are these companies churn out. Google sea

by j_m_b 3y ago

We're just beginning to experience a shuffling of the top companies. Remember FAANG? Just look at how bad the products are these companies churn out. Google search is a degraded experience, Apple released vision pro, and the N for Netflix should probably be N for Nvidia. It makes sense that the larger and mid-sized players are indecisive and taking things slow, the status quo is working out great for them. Why change it up? You're not innovating anymore, that was long ago extinguished by the bureaucracy that inevitably comes with a large organization. The easiest way to increase profits is to reduce payroll. However, there is going to be a lot of smaller companies that will quickly start eating the lunch of the larger companies in terms of hiring. They're going to be able to move fast and hire quick while the labor pool is oversaturated. This is a growing pain that happens during these times of reshuffling. We'll see amazing new companies that will make FAANG orgs look like Sears Holdings. This cycle has happened since before you entered the labor market and will continue long after you retire.

a_vanderbilt 3y ago
The market ebbs and flows and your assessment of the innovation happening at Netflix vs. Nvidia is evidence of that. Google used to be a cornerstone of what defined a FAANG, but now it's become the new Microsoft, while Microsoft has been busy re-inventing itself. Amazon is flattening out, FaceBook (ahem, Meta) is searching for their next moonshot, and Apple is about to incur the wrath of regulatory bodies that their curated experience may or may not survive. I think COVID was the pivotal moment for these companies for the reasons you allude to: bureaucracy. The Goog grew way to fast to try and capitalize on cloud going up during the pandemic, but they hired too many middling people. Most companies did, but they cannot afford to do so then or now. Nvidia is a wonderful case study in management doing leaps and bounds without being "busy", because like Valve, their winning move was to let everyone else make unforced blunders. CUDA isn't exceptional. It's OK, it's alright, - but it's certainly better than the broken mess ROCm is. Intel said "meh" and left the entire market open, despite tailored compilers being their strong suit. Now Intel is getting pounded by AMD and ARM, and AMD GPUs are a laughing stock in the fastest growing market space at the moment: AI and Machine Learning. The companies that capitalize effectively on AI/ML now will be winners in tomorrow's market. I've worked in startups long enough to know what the end of ZIRP will do to a company.

by j_m_b 3y ago

a_vanderbilt 3y ago

The market ebbs and flows and your assessment of the innovation happening at Netflix vs. Nvidia is evidence of that. Google used to be a cornerstone of what defined a FAANG, but now it's become the new Microsoft, while Microsoft has been busy re-inventing itself. Amazon is flattening out, FaceBook (ahem, Meta) is searching for their next moonshot, and Apple is about to incur the wrath of regulatory bodies that their curated experience may or may not survive. I think COVID was the pivotal moment for these companies for the reasons you allude to: bureaucracy. The Goog grew way to fast to try and capitalize on cloud going up during the pandemic, but they hired too many middling people. Most companies did, but they cannot afford to do so then or now. Nvidia is a wonderful case study in management doing leaps and bounds without being "busy", because like Valve, their winning move was to let everyone else make unforced blunders. CUDA isn't exceptional. It's OK, it's alright, - but it's certainly better than the broken mess ROCm is. Intel said "meh" and left the entire market open, despite tailored compilers being their strong suit. Now Intel is getting pounded by AMD and ARM, and AMD GPUs are a laughing stock in the fastest growing market space at the moment: AI and Machine Learning. The companies that capitalize effectively on AI/ML now will be winners in tomorrow's market. I've worked in startups long enough to know what the end of ZIRP will do to a company.