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Brexit isn't really a part of the story, regardless of what the punditry may wish. Look at GBP/USD long term to see: https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/GBPUSD%3DX
by mike_hearn 3y ago
Brexit isn't really a part of the story, regardless of what the punditry may wish. Look at GBP/USD long term to see:
https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/GBPUSD%3DX?showOptin=1#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 https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/GBPUSD%3DX?showOptin=1#eyJpb...
The big shock was 2008. Then things were stable for a few years but starting in 2014 the value of the currency went into a long period of decline. Brexit in 2016 spooked a bunch of traders who were terrified of the readily apparent insanity visible in the (Remainer) government - talks of massive emergency tax rises and so on clearly had an impact - but then once Cameron/Osborne were booted out and the massive recession the "experts" had promised failed to materialize, the currency regained its value vs the USD until by 2018 it was back at the same level it had been at the start of 2016. Then the currency got weaker with time until a recovery around COVID, then the decline set in again.
So as you can see Brexit had a temporary effect due to the, uh, "broken promises" about the costs of leaving made by the Remain campaign. But within 18 months that had been unwound.
The real story here is a macroeconomic one: the UK economy was permanently damaged by the (American triggered!) financial crisis and never really recovered in the same way the USA itself did. Growth stopped around that time, and it was then dragged down even further by Eurozone weakness starting around 2012-2014 era.
The 2010s were a lost decade for the UK economically. The 2020s will be no better given the way things are going politically. Brexit has little to do with it though, except in the sense that it would enable a hypothetical capitalist/libertarian party that doesn't currently exist to liberalize the economy to US standards and restart growth. There's no appetite to do that in the UK political mainstream at the moment.
- hakfoo 3y agoOf course there's no appetite for that. Can't really imagine people looking at what's going on in Argentina and saying "Where do we sign up?" The big story in first-world politics in the next 50 years is finding a way to stop the slippage in quality of life for the bottom 90%. No amount of 12% paper GDP growth, cheaper tech products, or dousing the economy in credit will paper over this problem forever. It might not even be about "liberalize the economy to restart growth"-- it could come from massive tax-and-spend projects (the UK has plenty of crumbling infrastructure to deal with) that actually get real salaries rising.
- mike_hearn 3y agoThe UK has tried that. Infrastructure mostly means transport when it comes to government, but can occasionally mean airports or sewers. Anything that involves forcing people off land in order to dig it up, basically. Crossrail, Thames Tideway and HS2 are all attempts at creating wealth through infrastructure spending. The link between these things and wealth is very weak. There's been no noticeable uplift from Crossrail, HS2 is semi-stalled and Heathrow Runway 3 has been stalled for decades, because the incredible costs can't really be justified even with very optimistic modeling. The other issue is these are invariably funded by borrowing. Even the current levels of taxation aren't sufficient to pay day to day costs, so capital projects definitely can't be. So it just leads to a vicious cycle in which the infrastructure crumbles today thanks to the borrowing of yesterday consuming all the taxes.