8 ms·

Can you give some numbers for some of the "vast" cost difference we're talking about (even if they're ballpark figures)?

ramidarigaz 14y ago
SpaceX lists launch prices on their website. The prices for the Falcon 9 are a little ways down on this page: http://www.spacex.com/falcon9.php http://www.spacex.com/falcon9.php
Arjuna 14y ago
"Can you give some numbers for some of the "vast" cost difference we're talking about (even if they're ballpark figures)?" "Q. How much does it cost to launch a Space Shuttle? A. The average cost to launch a Space Shuttle is about $450 million per mission." [1] [1] http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/about/information/shuttle_faq.html#10 http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/about/information/shuttl... "The average price of a full-up NASA Dragon cargo mission to the International Space Station is $133 million including inflation, or roughly $115m in today's dollars, and we have a firm, fixed price contract with NASA for 12 missions. This price includes the costs of the Falcon 9 launch, the Dragon spacecraft, all operations, maintenance and overhead, and all of the work required to integrate with the Space Station. If there are cost overruns, SpaceX will cover the difference. (This concept may be foreign to some traditional government space contractors that seem to believe that cost overruns should be the responsibility of the taxpayer.) The total company expenditures since being founded in 2002 through the 2010 fiscal year were less than $800 million, which includes all the development costs for the Falcon 1, Falcon 9 and Dragon. Included in this $800 million are the costs of building launch sites at Vandenberg, Cape Canaveral and Kwajalein, as well as the corporate manufacturing facility that can support up to 12 Falcon 9 and Dragon missions per year. This total also includes the cost of five flights of Falcon 1, two flights of Falcon 9, and one up and back flight of Dragon." [2] [2] http://www.spacex.com/usa.php http://www.spacex.com/usa.php
- eupharis 14y ago
  Cost per kilo to Low Earth Orbit (LEO): Space Shuttle: $19, 824 per kg [1] Soyuz-2: $5,333 per kg [2] Falcon 9: $5,167 per kg [3] At the moment, the Falcon 9 is not that much cheaper than the Soyuz. Elon Musk's talk of $1,100 per kg lies in the future. SpaceX is hoping that making all the parts reusable and its new Falcon Heavy (Which will carry five times as much as the Falcon 9) will cause launch costs to plummet like a stone. Which is not to say SpaceX isn't amazing. It has been launching rockets for that past 6 years. Whereas Soyuz has been the 40 year work of a superpower. Achieving parity is a wonder in and of itself. [1] $450 million cost per launch / 22,700 kg payload http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/about/information/shuttle_faq.html#10 http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/about/information/shuttl... [2] $40 million / 7,500 kg payload http://myblog.rsynnott.com/2010/03/rocket-fuel-not-as-expensive-as-youd.html http://myblog.rsynnott.com/2010/03/rocket-fuel-not-as-expens... [3] $54 million / 10,450 kg payload http://www.spacex.com/falcon9.php http://www.spacex.com/falcon9.php Edit: Grammar, formatting
  - tadfisher 14y ago
    Not cost per kilo, price. These numbers aren't comparable as-is, you have to look at the cost structure.
    - eupharis 14y ago
      This is cost in terms of "how much will it cost me to hire SpaceX or the Soyuz to take my tourist self / science experiment / mining robot to LEO." If you want to call that price, go for it. Obviously this is pure theorycraft for the Space Shuttle. But if anyone has a better number please share! $/kg is the crucial number that has to fall to bring about a new era in space exploration. Except for SpaceX, space launch companies don't publish their prices straight up on the website. But about $5,000 per kg ballpark figure for Soyuz seems widely to be accepted by credible sources on the internet and books. See: http://books.google.com/books?id=kN9Szy-fJVIC&pg=PA69&lpg=PA69&#v=onepage&q&f=false http://books.google.com/books?id=kN9Szy-fJVIC&pg=PA69&#3... If someone has harder numbers for the Soyuz, please share!
      - 14y ago
deleted 14y ago
[deleted]
ChuckMcM 14y ago
It it difficult to 'cost out' the current Soyuz infrastructure because so much of it can be accounted to zero with basic accounting. (The cost of design and development was paid off over 15 years of launches according to an old press release but that was also at a time when the then Soviets had even less of an independent press than they do today) For me however, this in itself is a pretty amazing thing, because SpaceX is a 'company' rather than a 'nation-state' the cost accounting is actually grounded in an independent currency and without hidden funding sources (like much of both the US and Soviet space programs benefited hugely from the investment in inter-continental ballistic missile technology which was 'defense' spending rather than 'space' spending. Such games are not possible at SpaceX. So it would be accurate to say that the Falcon9 launch system is the first system for which we know the true cost of the system. And that is pretty amazing to my way of thinking. When you combine that with a fixed price to get various tonnage in LEO or a into a Geo/Lunar transfer orbit, you can make statements like "Getting this into orbit costs $X" with overruns/delays/randomness priced out. With some newer work being developed for on orbit vehicles, things like Lunar exploitation and Lagrange point stations become an exercise in money rather than politics and money. And that is also a huge shift.
ANH 14y ago
In the press conference about an hour ago, I think I heard Gwynne Shotwell (President, SpaceX) say Russia offers a seat for $63M, whereas SpaceX will be offering NASA Dragon launches in the $30M range. A Dragon holds seven astronauts.
- tsotha 14y ago
  The Russians were offering seats in the $30M range as well until the shuttle was retired. There was a lot of anger over the adjustment.
InclinedPlane 14y ago
First, let's take the Shuttle off the table, which is no longer in service and was by far the most expensive launch vehicle in extensive service in history. Right now, the price of a Falcon 9 launch is around $50mil, this translates to $4.8/g to LEO or $16.7/g to GTO (which is where most satellites go). This compares very favorably to the price of other western launchers (Atlas V: $18/g, Ariane 5: $21/g, Delta IV: $19.5/g to GTO and around $11-$14/g to LEO) and is very competitive compared to Russian launchers (Soyuz 2: $16.7/g, Proton M: $18.2/g to GTO or $6.4/g and $4.8/g to LEO respectively). However, keep in mind that these are prices, which include a healthy profit margin for SpaceX, and it's no coincidence that they have priced themselves right at the level of the otherwise cheapest launch vehicles in the world (since that maximizes their profit margin). Also keep in mind that as SpaceX's operations and manufacturing become more streamlined, as they amortize the fixed development costs for the Falcon 9 (which won't take long since the costs are a small multiple of the per flight revenue), as flight rate increases, and as competitive pressure to lower their profit margin increases they will be able to offer launches for considerably less than they are today, at lower prices than the Soyuz or Proton, for example. However, this is just the beginning, as SpaceX has several development efforts in progress. The Falcon Heavy, for example, represents an incremental evolution of the Falcon 9 design, using 3 1st stage cores (instead of just one) and using a new cross-feed system to improve performance. The thing about the Falcon Heavy is that it uses slightly less than 3x as much hardware at about 2x the cost of a Falcon 9 launch but it will be able to deliver 5x the payload. This will translate into prices around $6.6/g to GTO and $2.4/g to LEO, at the high end ($4.2/g and $1.5/g at the low end). Nobody else in the world can come close to those numbers. Also, they are working on a fully reusable version of the Falcon 9 which will reduce costs by at least a factor of 5 conservatively and perhaps as much as a factor of 100. The maiden flight for the Falcon Heavy is slated to be next year. And they have already begun development on the core systems for the reusable Falcon (here's the 1st stage landing gear they've built for one of the test vehicles: http://s3.amazonaws.com/imgly_production/4311966/large.jpg http://s3.amazonaws.com/imgly_production/4311966/large.jpg).
- ebiester 14y ago
  Are we sure about this healthy profit? Is it possible they're just using this to try and beta their vehicle at lower cost?

ramidarigaz 14y ago

SpaceX lists launch prices on their website. The prices for the Falcon 9 are a little ways down on this page: http://www.spacex.com/falcon9.php http://www.spacex.com/falcon9.php

Arjuna 14y ago

"Can you give some numbers for some of the "vast" cost difference we're talking about (even if they're ballpark figures)?" "Q. How much does it cost to launch a Space Shuttle? A. The average cost to launch a Space Shuttle is about $450 million per mission." [1] [1] http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/about/information/shuttle_faq.html#10 http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/about/information/shuttl... "The average price of a full-up NASA Dragon cargo mission to the International Space Station is $133 million including inflation, or roughly $115m in today's dollars, and we have a firm, fixed price contract with NASA for 12 missions. This price includes the costs of the Falcon 9 launch, the Dragon spacecraft, all operations, maintenance and overhead, and all of the work required to integrate with the Space Station. If there are cost overruns, SpaceX will cover the difference. (This concept may be foreign to some traditional government space contractors that seem to believe that cost overruns should be the responsibility of the taxpayer.) The total company expenditures since being founded in 2002 through the 2010 fiscal year were less than $800 million, which includes all the development costs for the Falcon 1, Falcon 9 and Dragon. Included in this $800 million are the costs of building launch sites at Vandenberg, Cape Canaveral and Kwajalein, as well as the corporate manufacturing facility that can support up to 12 Falcon 9 and Dragon missions per year. This total also includes the cost of five flights of Falcon 1, two flights of Falcon 9, and one up and back flight of Dragon." [2] [2] http://www.spacex.com/usa.php http://www.spacex.com/usa.php

eupharis 14y ago
Cost per kilo to Low Earth Orbit (LEO): Space Shuttle: $19, 824 per kg [1] Soyuz-2: $5,333 per kg [2] Falcon 9: $5,167 per kg [3] At the moment, the Falcon 9 is not that much cheaper than the Soyuz. Elon Musk's talk of $1,100 per kg lies in the future. SpaceX is hoping that making all the parts reusable and its new Falcon Heavy (Which will carry five times as much as the Falcon 9) will cause launch costs to plummet like a stone. Which is not to say SpaceX isn't amazing. It has been launching rockets for that past 6 years. Whereas Soyuz has been the 40 year work of a superpower. Achieving parity is a wonder in and of itself. [1] $450 million cost per launch / 22,700 kg payload http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/about/information/shuttle_faq.html#10 http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/about/information/shuttl... [2] $40 million / 7,500 kg payload http://myblog.rsynnott.com/2010/03/rocket-fuel-not-as-expensive-as-youd.html http://myblog.rsynnott.com/2010/03/rocket-fuel-not-as-expens... [3] $54 million / 10,450 kg payload http://www.spacex.com/falcon9.php http://www.spacex.com/falcon9.php Edit: Grammar, formatting
- tadfisher 14y ago
  Not cost per kilo, price. These numbers aren't comparable as-is, you have to look at the cost structure.
  - eupharis 14y ago
    This is cost in terms of "how much will it cost me to hire SpaceX or the Soyuz to take my tourist self / science experiment / mining robot to LEO." If you want to call that price, go for it. Obviously this is pure theorycraft for the Space Shuttle. But if anyone has a better number please share! $/kg is the crucial number that has to fall to bring about a new era in space exploration. Except for SpaceX, space launch companies don't publish their prices straight up on the website. But about $5,000 per kg ballpark figure for Soyuz seems widely to be accepted by credible sources on the internet and books. See: http://books.google.com/books?id=kN9Szy-fJVIC&pg=PA69&lpg=PA69&#v=onepage&q&f=false http://books.google.com/books?id=kN9Szy-fJVIC&pg=PA69&#3... If someone has harder numbers for the Soyuz, please share!
    - 14y ago

deleted 14y ago

[deleted]

ChuckMcM 14y ago

It it difficult to 'cost out' the current Soyuz infrastructure because so much of it can be accounted to zero with basic accounting. (The cost of design and development was paid off over 15 years of launches according to an old press release but that was also at a time when the then Soviets had even less of an independent press than they do today) For me however, this in itself is a pretty amazing thing, because SpaceX is a 'company' rather than a 'nation-state' the cost accounting is actually grounded in an independent currency and without hidden funding sources (like much of both the US and Soviet space programs benefited hugely from the investment in inter-continental ballistic missile technology which was 'defense' spending rather than 'space' spending. Such games are not possible at SpaceX. So it would be accurate to say that the Falcon9 launch system is the first system for which we know the true cost of the system. And that is pretty amazing to my way of thinking. When you combine that with a fixed price to get various tonnage in LEO or a into a Geo/Lunar transfer orbit, you can make statements like "Getting this into orbit costs $X" with overruns/delays/randomness priced out. With some newer work being developed for on orbit vehicles, things like Lunar exploitation and Lagrange point stations become an exercise in money rather than politics and money. And that is also a huge shift.

ANH 14y ago

In the press conference about an hour ago, I think I heard Gwynne Shotwell (President, SpaceX) say Russia offers a seat for $63M, whereas SpaceX will be offering NASA Dragon launches in the $30M range. A Dragon holds seven astronauts.

tsotha 14y ago
The Russians were offering seats in the $30M range as well until the shuttle was retired. There was a lot of anger over the adjustment.

InclinedPlane 14y ago

First, let's take the Shuttle off the table, which is no longer in service and was by far the most expensive launch vehicle in extensive service in history. Right now, the price of a Falcon 9 launch is around $50mil, this translates to $4.8/g to LEO or $16.7/g to GTO (which is where most satellites go). This compares very favorably to the price of other western launchers (Atlas V: $18/g, Ariane 5: $21/g, Delta IV: $19.5/g to GTO and around $11-$14/g to LEO) and is very competitive compared to Russian launchers (Soyuz 2: $16.7/g, Proton M: $18.2/g to GTO or $6.4/g and $4.8/g to LEO respectively). However, keep in mind that these are prices, which include a healthy profit margin for SpaceX, and it's no coincidence that they have priced themselves right at the level of the otherwise cheapest launch vehicles in the world (since that maximizes their profit margin). Also keep in mind that as SpaceX's operations and manufacturing become more streamlined, as they amortize the fixed development costs for the Falcon 9 (which won't take long since the costs are a small multiple of the per flight revenue), as flight rate increases, and as competitive pressure to lower their profit margin increases they will be able to offer launches for considerably less than they are today, at lower prices than the Soyuz or Proton, for example. However, this is just the beginning, as SpaceX has several development efforts in progress. The Falcon Heavy, for example, represents an incremental evolution of the Falcon 9 design, using 3 1st stage cores (instead of just one) and using a new cross-feed system to improve performance. The thing about the Falcon Heavy is that it uses slightly less than 3x as much hardware at about 2x the cost of a Falcon 9 launch but it will be able to deliver 5x the payload. This will translate into prices around $6.6/g to GTO and $2.4/g to LEO, at the high end ($4.2/g and $1.5/g at the low end). Nobody else in the world can come close to those numbers. Also, they are working on a fully reusable version of the Falcon 9 which will reduce costs by at least a factor of 5 conservatively and perhaps as much as a factor of 100. The maiden flight for the Falcon Heavy is slated to be next year. And they have already begun development on the core systems for the reusable Falcon (here's the 1st stage landing gear they've built for one of the test vehicles: http://s3.amazonaws.com/imgly_production/4311966/large.jpg http://s3.amazonaws.com/imgly_production/4311966/large.jpg).

ebiester 14y ago
Are we sure about this healthy profit? Is it possible they're just using this to try and beta their vehicle at lower cost?