>Manufacturing costs go down, generally. No they don't, you're just falling for survivorship bias - technology that's successful goes down in cost. Technology

>Manufacturing costs go down, generally. No they don't, you're just falling for survivorship bias - technology that's successful goes down in cost. Technology that starts off prohibitively expensive and remains prohibitively expensive is technology that tends to stay niche or nonexistent and not thought about. Successful technology is almost definitionally technology whose manufacturing costs go down over time, but to use that as a basis for claiming that Technology X will go down in cost over time and therefore Technology X will be successful - well, that's circular logic. BTW, solar when it first came out was solar thermal. Solar thermal, as an electricity source, is dead.