14 ms·

>western companies fleeing Western FDI constituted negligible part of PRC domestic investment as % of GDP for years. Like low single digit percentage of total

>western companies fleeing Western FDI constituted negligible part of PRC domestic investment as % of GDP for years. Like low single digit percentage of total investment. It largely doesn't matter. Of course western companies they're not excited after US made it geopolitically difficult to invest in PRC, because without literally making it legally difficult to do business in PRC, companies wouldn't have China+1ed/fled. That's not PRC not being attractive, that's US forcing their companies to take the L for geopolitics, which is fair. But questionable if it hurts PRC more or US. >SEMI supply chain They're chaining together entirely indigenous semi industry. 12/24nm under validation from SMEE. Every component has domestic ventures to replicate. A few years out, expensive/wasteful, might run late, but will eventually get there as with all PRC industiral policy that gets the manhattan project fast track. Pretty much the only country with entire semi supply chain development on horizon and talent base to man it. Huawei increased orders for 7nm phones, eating away at Apple shares. Opposite of fizzle. >skilled labor/youth unemployment PRC hard tech sectors have exploded in employment and compensation. Broad unemployhment 5% which means new graduates get jobs eventually. There's new youth unemployment stats to discount students in tertiary like west, it's fine at ~20%. Even at 50% that includes youth in fulltime school, that's multiple times new talent than US. Meanwhile you have sea turtles / skilled talent from abroad going back to PRC and they're retaining more high end talent than ever due to domestic opportunities. Youth unemployment breakdown also biased towards low skilled. High skill are generally fine. >operationalize it. PRC's has operationalized domestic MIC for 10+ years now. This is old boring news talked endlessly by US thinktanks for years. You're imagining they're learning to crawl when they're near sprint. That's why they're recognized as the pacing peer threat. No one credible thinks PRC isn't operationalizing modern capabilities at scale. > Spotted by a drone This this was reference to attack last year that damaged active patriot batteries. RU haven't used them more because they don't have good ISR/fast kill chains for how mobile patriots are, can't build high end missiles fast enough unlike west/PRC. So not worth commitiment. They have hardware, but limited, theres like 100 Kinzhals total and they used 20?. TLDR is they lack capability to coordinate strikes. PRC tests more high end missiles a year than RU can produce. This looks extra bad for patriots because even RU, as incompetent as they are at ISR still managed to penetrate patriot when they dedicated some highend (really medium end) hardware to the task. > Live tests USS Mason shot down shit tier Yemen cruise missiles (like old PRC 80s tech) in 2016, shooting down similar missiles and drones doesn't bring new learning except from PLA sigint in region gathering data on US weapon systems since they weren't in Djibouti at the time. Really shotting down primitive single digit clusters of cruise missiles is not even a useful live stress test. >NASA_X-43 Many reports on PLA rocketforce expansion, they're making them at scale, hitting moving targets at sea. Leaks verify speed/performance. Putting up 100s of ISR for kill chain. What hasn't been verfied is US building capabilites to defend mach 5+ threats, especially at scale. >US target in response to a blocked ends in a nuclear exchange At the point US tries to blockade PRC ends in a nuclear exchange. See how that works. Point is PRC already deters US from even attempting blockade by making CONUS as vunerable as PRC is to SLOC blockades. SLOC blockade math works on rationale that US can enforce unilateral/existential damage to PRC without damage to herself. Now US can't without basically being in same energy deprived state as PRC. Hence US likely won't. Only real deterrence catchup is nuclear parity. >Quick head Quick headcount, PRC has magnitude more missile inventory and missile defense relative to RU:UKR, focused on island 16x smaller with even less perimeter to preposition defenses. The geography and math here isn't difficult, PRC can trivially overwhelm launchers TW has, assuming they even work when sensors are gone in first strike - PRC can hit anywhere in TW in 7 minutes. > like everything else does I mean they can land on mars first go, so I think it'll land on a carrier fine. >windfall PRC doesn't export high end, and RU not in position to export in middle of war with their limited industrial base. TLDR patriots and SM2 working as intended, with expected limitations. Which is to say overwhelmable by power that can coordinate more than a handful of high performance missiles at a time. Which is actually pretty high ask but certainly includes PRC. PRC semi doing fine, catching up faster than anticipated, remember how they were suppose to be capped at 28nm. Meanwhile, they're still climbing up on the supply chain ladder, displacing more and more high tech from west, growing in S&T/innovation indexes. They crippled their R/E with 3RL and soft tech on purpose and still chugging along. Eitherway this is departing from the Original topic, so I'm going to hang hat here.

zer00eyz 3y ago
>> Western FDI constituted negligible part of PRC domestic investment as % of GDP... US made it geopolitically difficult to invest in PRC Foxconn leaving at apples behest (and the Foxconn owner getting vocal with the prc in a rare move). The banking exoudus from Hong Kong (now deep into its 2nd year). And the impact to the GDP... its a literal house of cards with the failure of ever grand with country garden hot on its heels... Meanwhile the retail apocalypse has hit china. High end luxury brands. Out. Grocery chains, shutting down. Finally the iron bowl, the local government workers are getting pay cut. (because land sales are a shitty source of funding)... Post pandemic there was going to be a realignment of global supply chains to be multi source and closer to home. Chinas covid zero policy just accelerated a decisions already made. >> Every component has domestic ventures to replicate. These have been facing up for decades. Without EUV they have no path forward. There is no EUV without Zeiss and ASML. Meanwhile unless your TSMC with their knowledge your going to have dismal yeilds. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQGnwKBxAKk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQGnwKBxAKk Probably one of the best high level insights into tech mfg in Asia. >>PRC hard tech sectors have exploded in employment and compensation. Broad unemployhment 5% which means new graduates get jobs eventually. There's new youth unemployment stats to discount students in tertiary like west, it's fine at ~20%. Youth? https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-stop-releasing-youth-jobless-rate-data-aug-says-stats-bureau-2023-08-15/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-stop-releasing-you... Tech sector: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58381538 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58381538 https://www.thinkchina.sg/big-tech-changing-china-and-so-are-its-hiring-plans https://www.thinkchina.sg/big-tech-changing-china-and-so-are... The decline of Chinese tech from stem to stern has been in process since 2000. Again the pandemic was a blast of orders for them but it was the last one. > Meanwhile you have sea turtles / skilled talent from abroad going back to PRC This has always been the case, they go home with any trade secrets that aren't bolted to the floor. https://www.smics.com/en/site/news_read/4334 https://www.smics.com/en/site/news_read/4334 << there's SMIC stealing its "progress" from TSMC. > PRC's has operationalized domestic MIC for 10+ years now. https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230811PD215/5g-china-huawei.html https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230811PD215/5g-china-huawe... This is tech that was hardly new and sexy when the first iPhone came out, china JUST joined this party. This isnt pzrticlulary hard silicon issue but it is process intensive... Again, based on how they did it likely stolen IP. >> This this was reference to attack last year that damaged active patriot batteries. RU haven't used them more because they don't have good ISR/fast kill chains for how mobile patriots are https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/17/patriot-missile-system-in-ukraine-likely-damaged-sources-says https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/17/patriot-missile-sys... The damage was minor enough to be repaired locally, the battery was not rendered inactive by this attack (read they did not destroy it). Per later reports the damage was not from one of the missles fired at it rather it was from an Iranian drone shot down in a separate intercept (oops). The reason that Russia does not have good intel on the patriots is NOT their mobility, it's their reliance on human intel (never change Russia). Do not that even AlJazer wont call the Russian attacks "effective" and hints at US shoot downs (that no one is gonna confirm publicly, because its bad politics). PS: This guy, locked up cause his missles dont work as promised, not because of china sale of info. https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-hypersonic-scientist-accused-betraying-secrets-china-sources-2023-05-24/ https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-hypersonic-scientist-a... >>> Really shotting down primitive single digit clusters of cruise missiles is not even a useful live stress test. No one has seen the new block of Patriot missiles, ship board, be effective... https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/10/25/u-s-deploys-additional-air-and-missile-defenses-to-middle-east/ https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/10/25/u-s-deploys-addition... SO yes seeing them work in this context regardless of target size is saying 'look we did and we can'. >>> Many reports on PLA rocketforce expansion... https://www.iiss.org/en/online-analysis/online-analysis/2023/05/intelligence-leak-reveals-chinas-successful-test-of-a-new-hypersonic-missile/ https://www.iiss.org/en/online-analysis/online-analysis/2023... This is the only credible source for their expansion into this territory... And again most of the leadership is gone, and did they or didn't they have to buy missile tech from the Russians. Meanwhile the bigger threat is in theater ICBM's with MREV's ... https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a34702702/navy-destroyer-shoots-down-icbm-watch-historic-test/ https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a34702702/... We have a lot of carriers, and have managed to keep pouring money into tech that will keep them safe (as they are large, slow, expensive targets). > ends in a nuclear exchange China invades tawian, china gets the blockade. People starve or china does something dumb that ends in nukes. It's a zero sum game for them and they know it. Same bluster from them since Nixon... >> PRC has magnitude more missile inventory and missile defense To be clear: the US navy (just the navy) has more Tomahawk's than all of the theater (medium and larger) missiles of the rocket force. Chinas combine anti missile systems (unproven) are enough to stop an attack from Taiwan (who has about half the missles of chinas rocket force). At a 50% shoot down rate, the rocket force would have to commit a significant amount of its inventory to overwhelm that defense. Thats a very precarious position to put yourself in if you expect the US to respond.... >> PRC semi doing fine, catching up faster than anticipated, remember how they were suppose to be capped at 28nm. Nothing of the sort, see above, see the current state of china semi... They have had DUV for a long time (5 ish years from asml). They used it for 14nm, to get 7nm and can get down to 5nm.... Can isnt volume, can isnt yeild. >> Meanwhile, they're still climbing up on the supply chain ladder, displacing more and more high tech from west, growing in S&T/innovation indexes. The only people making this claim are china state propaganda. This is right out of the little pinks hand book. There is over a decade of court cases (both civil and criminal) for theft of intellectual property... Copying by theft isnt innovation. Meanwhile they can barely make the filters for 5g (see above, mems, 20 year old tech at this point, brand new in china). That isnt catching up, that's isnt even keeping pace... it's throwing money and espionage at a problem. China cant make camera lenses, they cant clone DU, how are they going to get to EUV (all for litho for chips).

zer00eyz 3y ago

>> Western FDI constituted negligible part of PRC domestic investment as % of GDP... US made it geopolitically difficult to invest in PRC Foxconn leaving at apples behest (and the Foxconn owner getting vocal with the prc in a rare move). The banking exoudus from Hong Kong (now deep into its 2nd year). And the impact to the GDP... its a literal house of cards with the failure of ever grand with country garden hot on its heels... Meanwhile the retail apocalypse has hit china. High end luxury brands. Out. Grocery chains, shutting down. Finally the iron bowl, the local government workers are getting pay cut. (because land sales are a shitty source of funding)... Post pandemic there was going to be a realignment of global supply chains to be multi source and closer to home. Chinas covid zero policy just accelerated a decisions already made. >> Every component has domestic ventures to replicate. These have been facing up for decades. Without EUV they have no path forward. There is no EUV without Zeiss and ASML. Meanwhile unless your TSMC with their knowledge your going to have dismal yeilds. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQGnwKBxAKk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQGnwKBxAKk Probably one of the best high level insights into tech mfg in Asia. >>PRC hard tech sectors have exploded in employment and compensation. Broad unemployhment 5% which means new graduates get jobs eventually. There's new youth unemployment stats to discount students in tertiary like west, it's fine at ~20%. Youth? https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-stop-releasing-youth-jobless-rate-data-aug-says-stats-bureau-2023-08-15/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-stop-releasing-you... Tech sector: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58381538 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58381538 https://www.thinkchina.sg/big-tech-changing-china-and-so-are-its-hiring-plans https://www.thinkchina.sg/big-tech-changing-china-and-so-are... The decline of Chinese tech from stem to stern has been in process since 2000. Again the pandemic was a blast of orders for them but it was the last one. > Meanwhile you have sea turtles / skilled talent from abroad going back to PRC This has always been the case, they go home with any trade secrets that aren't bolted to the floor. https://www.smics.com/en/site/news_read/4334 https://www.smics.com/en/site/news_read/4334 << there's SMIC stealing its "progress" from TSMC. > PRC's has operationalized domestic MIC for 10+ years now. https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230811PD215/5g-china-huawei.html https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230811PD215/5g-china-huawe... This is tech that was hardly new and sexy when the first iPhone came out, china JUST joined this party. This isnt pzrticlulary hard silicon issue but it is process intensive... Again, based on how they did it likely stolen IP. >> This this was reference to attack last year that damaged active patriot batteries. RU haven't used them more because they don't have good ISR/fast kill chains for how mobile patriots are https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/17/patriot-missile-system-in-ukraine-likely-damaged-sources-says https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/17/patriot-missile-sys... The damage was minor enough to be repaired locally, the battery was not rendered inactive by this attack (read they did not destroy it). Per later reports the damage was not from one of the missles fired at it rather it was from an Iranian drone shot down in a separate intercept (oops). The reason that Russia does not have good intel on the patriots is NOT their mobility, it's their reliance on human intel (never change Russia). Do not that even AlJazer wont call the Russian attacks "effective" and hints at US shoot downs (that no one is gonna confirm publicly, because its bad politics). PS: This guy, locked up cause his missles dont work as promised, not because of china sale of info. https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-hypersonic-scientist-accused-betraying-secrets-china-sources-2023-05-24/ https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-hypersonic-scientist-a... >>> Really shotting down primitive single digit clusters of cruise missiles is not even a useful live stress test. No one has seen the new block of Patriot missiles, ship board, be effective... https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/10/25/u-s-deploys-additional-air-and-missile-defenses-to-middle-east/ https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/10/25/u-s-deploys-addition... SO yes seeing them work in this context regardless of target size is saying 'look we did and we can'. >>> Many reports on PLA rocketforce expansion... https://www.iiss.org/en/online-analysis/online-analysis/2023/05/intelligence-leak-reveals-chinas-successful-test-of-a-new-hypersonic-missile/ https://www.iiss.org/en/online-analysis/online-analysis/2023... This is the only credible source for their expansion into this territory... And again most of the leadership is gone, and did they or didn't they have to buy missile tech from the Russians. Meanwhile the bigger threat is in theater ICBM's with MREV's ... https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a34702702/navy-destroyer-shoots-down-icbm-watch-historic-test/ https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a34702702/... We have a lot of carriers, and have managed to keep pouring money into tech that will keep them safe (as they are large, slow, expensive targets). > ends in a nuclear exchange China invades tawian, china gets the blockade. People starve or china does something dumb that ends in nukes. It's a zero sum game for them and they know it. Same bluster from them since Nixon... >> PRC has magnitude more missile inventory and missile defense To be clear: the US navy (just the navy) has more Tomahawk's than all of the theater (medium and larger) missiles of the rocket force. Chinas combine anti missile systems (unproven) are enough to stop an attack from Taiwan (who has about half the missles of chinas rocket force). At a 50% shoot down rate, the rocket force would have to commit a significant amount of its inventory to overwhelm that defense. Thats a very precarious position to put yourself in if you expect the US to respond.... >> PRC semi doing fine, catching up faster than anticipated, remember how they were suppose to be capped at 28nm. Nothing of the sort, see above, see the current state of china semi... They have had DUV for a long time (5 ish years from asml). They used it for 14nm, to get 7nm and can get down to 5nm.... Can isnt volume, can isnt yeild. >> Meanwhile, they're still climbing up on the supply chain ladder, displacing more and more high tech from west, growing in S&T/innovation indexes. The only people making this claim are china state propaganda. This is right out of the little pinks hand book. There is over a decade of court cases (both civil and criminal) for theft of intellectual property... Copying by theft isnt innovation. Meanwhile they can barely make the filters for 5g (see above, mems, 20 year old tech at this point, brand new in china). That isnt catching up, that's isnt even keeping pace... it's throwing money and espionage at a problem. China cant make camera lenses, they cant clone DU, how are they going to get to EUV (all for litho for chips).