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>> Everyone wants to deal with PRC so much that US literally had to impose sanctions Everyone is happy to sell as much as they can to whomever they can. The nu

>> Everyone wants to deal with PRC so much that US literally had to impose sanctions Everyone is happy to sell as much as they can to whomever they can. The number of western companies fleeing the PRC says that every one is excited to keep betting on china? See: https://www.forbes.com/sites/betsyatkins/2023/08/07/manufacturing-moving-out-of-china-for-friendlier-shores/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/betsyatkins/2023/08/07/manufact... >> PRC is minting more STEM/highskilled than OECD combined, and only actor projected to build enough talent to actually have fully indigenous semi supply chain while everyone else is projected to have shortages. What SEMI supply chain? Where are they getting hardware for litho? Lenses? They aren't building that, they have no idea how. SMIC is state backed, they got one run of 7nm chips to huwei for the latest phone and fizzled.... https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/chinas-smic-posts-a-80percent-drop-in-third-quarter-profit.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/chinas-smic-posts-a-80percen... As for skilled labor ... where? China stopped publishing youth employment, all those fresh grads dont have JOBS and most of their tech base is in shambles. Any one with any skill went outside the PRC for work and are kept in restricted roles for fear of them stealing everything in sight (tech wise). >> Except military hardware use older harden nodes that PRC has domestic supply for, they're not running out of chips for military applications. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/07/a-shortage-of-optics-was-holding-back-russian-tank-production-that-shortage-may-have-ended/?sh=160c405c3dff https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/07/a-shortage-... These are semi conductor based devices... MEMS devices make cell phones work (filtering) https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230811PD215/5g-china-huawei.html https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230811PD215/5g-china-huawe... None of this particularly new tech. The problem is that just because you have the machines and undestand how it works doesn't mean you can operationalize it. The restrictions have been impactful across the board and "catching up" is not just "doing it". These are insanely complex processes and getting them to work, and then at scale is a multi year process.... >> If you actually pay attention, you'll note patriot in UKR got penetrated by 6 shit tier kinzhal https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/09/a-russian-drone-spotted-a-ukrainian-patriot-air-defense-crew-convoying-near-the-front-line-soon-a-russian-hypersonic-missile-streaked-down/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/09/a-russian-d... Spotted by a drone, at the front line (to take out Russian jets) and caught with its pants down. This is not the systems failure your portraying this is an intel win for the Russians. As for the Red Sea, Live fire exercises are important, you can train all you want but doing it and proving it are another matter. The patriot tech for this sort of interceptions has had no live tests at sea till now... Lastly Russia has tried on several occasions to take out patriot batteries. They have missles that supposedly have the ability to directly engage them then why have they not used them? https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/air-defence-systems-repelling-attacks-ukraine-early-tuesday-officials-2023-05-16/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/air-defence-systems-rep... > allege US clocked PRC DF27 tests at mach 8+ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_X-43 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_X-43 Every one tests these technologies... putting them into production is another matter... >>> no one's going to blockade PRC without their own energy infra getting blown up. Including US who goes from US to Yemen without a few hundred oil refineries and LNG plants. Or domestic semis, or data centres, or F35 factories. At the point that the PRC striking a US target in response to a blocked ends in a nuclear exchange... Your making the point that the PRC wont try for tawain pretty clear here with this argument as there is no outcome that doesn't end in a global catastrophe. >> anything less than idea since they're letting enough slip through that their performance has essentially validates Quick head count: Ukraine a massive country has enough patriots to basically defend a bit of critical infrastructure (5)... Taiwan a country of microscopic size in comparison has 14 at last count + their own home grown defense system, and the ability to fire retaliatory strikes at china (who has too massive of a cost line to deploy the same level of protection even if they had it). >> PRC's focus on high end rocket force. If it performs like everything else does in the PRC then they would have been better off buying bottle rockets. >> You think this is US showing sabers work, but it's exposing they don't work remotely well enough against threats they were designed for, AKA, what PRC rocketry was specifically designed to defeat. If Russia or china had a missile that could have taken out an active patriot battery it would have been used. Why? Because every country in the world would have bought them. The windfall for a cash strapped Russia or chines defense industry would have been huge. TLDR: Active patriots have yet to meet a target that they cant take out. Chips, and chip manufacturing technology continues to hurt china and Russia. The decline of China has been sharp and painful for them.

maxglute 3y ago
>western companies fleeing Western FDI constituted negligible part of PRC domestic investment as % of GDP for years. Like low single digit percentage of total investment. It largely doesn't matter. Of course western companies they're not excited after US made it geopolitically difficult to invest in PRC, because without literally making it legally difficult to do business in PRC, companies wouldn't have China+1ed/fled. That's not PRC not being attractive, that's US forcing their companies to take the L for geopolitics, which is fair. But questionable if it hurts PRC more or US. >SEMI supply chain They're chaining together entirely indigenous semi industry. 12/24nm under validation from SMEE. Every component has domestic ventures to replicate. A few years out, expensive/wasteful, might run late, but will eventually get there as with all PRC industiral policy that gets the manhattan project fast track. Pretty much the only country with entire semi supply chain development on horizon and talent base to man it. Huawei increased orders for 7nm phones, eating away at Apple shares. Opposite of fizzle. >skilled labor/youth unemployment PRC hard tech sectors have exploded in employment and compensation. Broad unemployhment 5% which means new graduates get jobs eventually. There's new youth unemployment stats to discount students in tertiary like west, it's fine at ~20%. Even at 50% that includes youth in fulltime school, that's multiple times new talent than US. Meanwhile you have sea turtles / skilled talent from abroad going back to PRC and they're retaining more high end talent than ever due to domestic opportunities. Youth unemployment breakdown also biased towards low skilled. High skill are generally fine. >operationalize it. PRC's has operationalized domestic MIC for 10+ years now. This is old boring news talked endlessly by US thinktanks for years. You're imagining they're learning to crawl when they're near sprint. That's why they're recognized as the pacing peer threat. No one credible thinks PRC isn't operationalizing modern capabilities at scale. > Spotted by a drone This this was reference to attack last year that damaged active patriot batteries. RU haven't used them more because they don't have good ISR/fast kill chains for how mobile patriots are, can't build high end missiles fast enough unlike west/PRC. So not worth commitiment. They have hardware, but limited, theres like 100 Kinzhals total and they used 20?. TLDR is they lack capability to coordinate strikes. PRC tests more high end missiles a year than RU can produce. This looks extra bad for patriots because even RU, as incompetent as they are at ISR still managed to penetrate patriot when they dedicated some highend (really medium end) hardware to the task. > Live tests USS Mason shot down shit tier Yemen cruise missiles (like old PRC 80s tech) in 2016, shooting down similar missiles and drones doesn't bring new learning except from PLA sigint in region gathering data on US weapon systems since they weren't in Djibouti at the time. Really shotting down primitive single digit clusters of cruise missiles is not even a useful live stress test. >NASA_X-43 Many reports on PLA rocketforce expansion, they're making them at scale, hitting moving targets at sea. Leaks verify speed/performance. Putting up 100s of ISR for kill chain. What hasn't been verfied is US building capabilites to defend mach 5+ threats, especially at scale. >US target in response to a blocked ends in a nuclear exchange At the point US tries to blockade PRC ends in a nuclear exchange. See how that works. Point is PRC already deters US from even attempting blockade by making CONUS as vunerable as PRC is to SLOC blockades. SLOC blockade math works on rationale that US can enforce unilateral/existential damage to PRC without damage to herself. Now US can't without basically being in same energy deprived state as PRC. Hence US likely won't. Only real deterrence catchup is nuclear parity. >Quick head Quick headcount, PRC has magnitude more missile inventory and missile defense relative to RU:UKR, focused on island 16x smaller with even less perimeter to preposition defenses. The geography and math here isn't difficult, PRC can trivially overwhelm launchers TW has, assuming they even work when sensors are gone in first strike - PRC can hit anywhere in TW in 7 minutes. > like everything else does I mean they can land on mars first go, so I think it'll land on a carrier fine. >windfall PRC doesn't export high end, and RU not in position to export in middle of war with their limited industrial base. TLDR patriots and SM2 working as intended, with expected limitations. Which is to say overwhelmable by power that can coordinate more than a handful of high performance missiles at a time. Which is actually pretty high ask but certainly includes PRC. PRC semi doing fine, catching up faster than anticipated, remember how they were suppose to be capped at 28nm. Meanwhile, they're still climbing up on the supply chain ladder, displacing more and more high tech from west, growing in S&T/innovation indexes. They crippled their R/E with 3RL and soft tech on purpose and still chugging along. Eitherway this is departing from the Original topic, so I'm going to hang hat here.

maxglute 3y ago

>western companies fleeing Western FDI constituted negligible part of PRC domestic investment as % of GDP for years. Like low single digit percentage of total investment. It largely doesn't matter. Of course western companies they're not excited after US made it geopolitically difficult to invest in PRC, because without literally making it legally difficult to do business in PRC, companies wouldn't have China+1ed/fled. That's not PRC not being attractive, that's US forcing their companies to take the L for geopolitics, which is fair. But questionable if it hurts PRC more or US. >SEMI supply chain They're chaining together entirely indigenous semi industry. 12/24nm under validation from SMEE. Every component has domestic ventures to replicate. A few years out, expensive/wasteful, might run late, but will eventually get there as with all PRC industiral policy that gets the manhattan project fast track. Pretty much the only country with entire semi supply chain development on horizon and talent base to man it. Huawei increased orders for 7nm phones, eating away at Apple shares. Opposite of fizzle. >skilled labor/youth unemployment PRC hard tech sectors have exploded in employment and compensation. Broad unemployhment 5% which means new graduates get jobs eventually. There's new youth unemployment stats to discount students in tertiary like west, it's fine at ~20%. Even at 50% that includes youth in fulltime school, that's multiple times new talent than US. Meanwhile you have sea turtles / skilled talent from abroad going back to PRC and they're retaining more high end talent than ever due to domestic opportunities. Youth unemployment breakdown also biased towards low skilled. High skill are generally fine. >operationalize it. PRC's has operationalized domestic MIC for 10+ years now. This is old boring news talked endlessly by US thinktanks for years. You're imagining they're learning to crawl when they're near sprint. That's why they're recognized as the pacing peer threat. No one credible thinks PRC isn't operationalizing modern capabilities at scale. > Spotted by a drone This this was reference to attack last year that damaged active patriot batteries. RU haven't used them more because they don't have good ISR/fast kill chains for how mobile patriots are, can't build high end missiles fast enough unlike west/PRC. So not worth commitiment. They have hardware, but limited, theres like 100 Kinzhals total and they used 20?. TLDR is they lack capability to coordinate strikes. PRC tests more high end missiles a year than RU can produce. This looks extra bad for patriots because even RU, as incompetent as they are at ISR still managed to penetrate patriot when they dedicated some highend (really medium end) hardware to the task. > Live tests USS Mason shot down shit tier Yemen cruise missiles (like old PRC 80s tech) in 2016, shooting down similar missiles and drones doesn't bring new learning except from PLA sigint in region gathering data on US weapon systems since they weren't in Djibouti at the time. Really shotting down primitive single digit clusters of cruise missiles is not even a useful live stress test. >NASA_X-43 Many reports on PLA rocketforce expansion, they're making them at scale, hitting moving targets at sea. Leaks verify speed/performance. Putting up 100s of ISR for kill chain. What hasn't been verfied is US building capabilites to defend mach 5+ threats, especially at scale. >US target in response to a blocked ends in a nuclear exchange At the point US tries to blockade PRC ends in a nuclear exchange. See how that works. Point is PRC already deters US from even attempting blockade by making CONUS as vunerable as PRC is to SLOC blockades. SLOC blockade math works on rationale that US can enforce unilateral/existential damage to PRC without damage to herself. Now US can't without basically being in same energy deprived state as PRC. Hence US likely won't. Only real deterrence catchup is nuclear parity. >Quick head Quick headcount, PRC has magnitude more missile inventory and missile defense relative to RU:UKR, focused on island 16x smaller with even less perimeter to preposition defenses. The geography and math here isn't difficult, PRC can trivially overwhelm launchers TW has, assuming they even work when sensors are gone in first strike - PRC can hit anywhere in TW in 7 minutes. > like everything else does I mean they can land on mars first go, so I think it'll land on a carrier fine. >windfall PRC doesn't export high end, and RU not in position to export in middle of war with their limited industrial base. TLDR patriots and SM2 working as intended, with expected limitations. Which is to say overwhelmable by power that can coordinate more than a handful of high performance missiles at a time. Which is actually pretty high ask but certainly includes PRC. PRC semi doing fine, catching up faster than anticipated, remember how they were suppose to be capped at 28nm. Meanwhile, they're still climbing up on the supply chain ladder, displacing more and more high tech from west, growing in S&T/innovation indexes. They crippled their R/E with 3RL and soft tech on purpose and still chugging along. Eitherway this is departing from the Original topic, so I'm going to hang hat here.