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If you look at total software spend in the US a year it’s 500B, total spend on payroll is 5T. If companies become 10% more efficient because of GenAI you’re eff
by serjester 3y ago
If you look at total software spend in the US a year it’s 500B, total spend on payroll is 5T. If companies become 10% more efficient because of GenAI you’re effectively doubling the size of current software market.
Actual value capture would obviously be lower, but 10% efficiency gains is a low estimate based on the studies coming out.
There’s a ton of terrible startups right now, but some of them will become whales. You can’t predict which ones ahead of time, so you invest in everything.
- amou234 3y agoI'd love to see the studies mentioning 10% efficiency gains if you have a chance. also, do these studies balance against cost of running the models? remember, that's why stability.ai has collapsed.
- sanxiyn 3y agoI am aware of this paper from National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/papers/w31161 https://www.nber.org/papers/w31161
- jjtheblunt 3y ago> There’s a ton of terrible startups right now, but some of them will become whales. You can’t predict which ones ahead of time, so you invest in everything. For what value of “you”?
- lancesells 3y agoI think people will lose their jobs with all types of cost-cutting but the people left will be left doing more of the work. I think like Web 2.0 a lot of AI software will be created to manage other AI software. Buster - Software that links databases and large language models Vectorview - Custom LLM evaluation Nuanced - Helps detect deep fakes and misinformation
- reaperman 3y agoWould be curious how “software spend” is defined here. When people subscribe to Netflix does that go under “software spend” or “entertainment spend”? Markets are just so tricky to define. The labor pool includes Netflix, even if they’re not competing for B2B SaaS spending.
- mvdtnz 3y agoI haven't seen LLMs do anything more useful than generating a wedding speech in the style of H.P. Lovecraft and there are people out there earnestly predicting this technology will increase efficiency 10% across entire economies. I genuinely feel like I'm living in a different world to you all.
- rockemsockem 3y agoHave you used GPT4 as a drop in replacement for Google, especially while coding?
- manicennui 3y agoI don't have to constantly Google things while coding.
- rockemsockem 3y agoI didn't imply constant Googling. IDK about you but I frequently work with frameworks and tools I have not encountered before and I find GPT-4 to do a far better job of giving me quick and straightforward answers about how these tools work than Google. Not just one-off "how do I do X", or "explain this syntax", but also things like "how does framework X handle Y", etc. I even use it to figure out how to find settings that are buried in cluttered UIs.
- JMiao 3y agoEven nicer
- JMiao 3y agoNice
- objektif 3y agoIt can write code. I can assure you that. Still need a developer but it can make a developer incredibly more efficient much much more than 10%.
- fakedang 3y agoTo be fair, a lot of software spending in Enterprise is what I would like to call Bullshit SaaS, a la David Graeber's analogy. Stuff that was subscribed to by some PM once upon a time, but then later sat unused, even as the company gets billed on it annually or monthly. Not to mention a lot of SaaS simply buying and using each other's products, fully funded by VC capital (which is the YC model). Take for instance any of the Talk to your PDF products out there. They were popular when ChatGPT came out, but nothing close to the billions of dollars claimed to be in that market. Chatbase made a few millions in revenue, before selling, but now that OpenAI has native functionality, I'm certain that product has been zombified. Of course, this is different from the large enterprise-level products being built by, say, companies like Harvey AI, but the utility of those products within an org over steady state (after all the hype has died down) remains to be seen.