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Agree domestic semi is crucial national security. For disagreements: >No one wants to deal with china Everyone wants to deal with PRC so much that US literall

Agree domestic semi is crucial national security. For disagreements: >No one wants to deal with china Everyone wants to deal with PRC so much that US literally had to impose sanctions and export controls to make it illegal. And then extra territorialize bans/frictions on partners who didn't want to by leaning on American origin tech %s until they had no choice. > will, talent PRC is minting more STEM/highskilled than OECD combined, and only actor projected to build enough talent to actually have fully indigenous semi supply chain while everyone else is projected to have shortages. > what "no chips" looks like Except military hardware use older harden nodes that PRC has domestic supply for, they're not running out of chips for military applications. > patriot missile system If you actually pay attention, you'll note patriot in UKR got penetrated by 6 shit tier kinzhals @mach3 and now multiple launchers are getting wiped from 80s hardware right after RU unfucked their primitive killchain, tier1 flight IIA/III DDGs in redsea are letting slip through enough uncoordinated old gen AShMs attacks that US can't guarantee redsea shipping. Old ghetto hardware that travels at a few maches or even subsonic, launched not in coordinated fashion, with even shittier kill chain than RU. Yet state of the art US missile defense interception isn't performant enough against these ordnances not used at scale and likely wholely inadequate for modern AShMs that travel much faster. You'll note last round of PRC rocket force leaks are retarded, rocket fuel for hotpot? Conveniently leaked around TW election to send msg that PRC won't "invade shit". It's called motivated propaganda. Meanwhile actual Teixeira leak - the stuff US prosecutes because it's actually credibly damaging - allege US clocked PRC DF27 tests at mach 8+, and many signs point to PRC pursing global prompt strike with rocketry = no one's going to blockade PRC without their own energy infra getting blown up. Including US who goes from US to Yemen without a few hundred oil refineries and LNG plants. Or domestic semis, or data centres, or F35 factories. TLDR western ABM performed about expected relative to threats (engaging slow targets up mach3), if anything less than idea since they're letting enough slip through that their performance has essentially validates PRC's focus on high end rocket force. You think this is US showing sabers work, but it's exposing they don't work remotely well enough against threats they were designed for, AKA, what PRC rocketry was specifically designed to defeat. Now they're thinking instead of sending salvo of 100 mach 6+ AShMs against a carrier group maybe only need to send 50. Or 300 cheaper AShMs/TLAMs. What recent conflicts has taught us is scale>wunderwaffe, lesson learned from previous wars.

zer00eyz 3y ago
>> Everyone wants to deal with PRC so much that US literally had to impose sanctions Everyone is happy to sell as much as they can to whomever they can. The number of western companies fleeing the PRC says that every one is excited to keep betting on china? See: https://www.forbes.com/sites/betsyatkins/2023/08/07/manufacturing-moving-out-of-china-for-friendlier-shores/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/betsyatkins/2023/08/07/manufact... >> PRC is minting more STEM/highskilled than OECD combined, and only actor projected to build enough talent to actually have fully indigenous semi supply chain while everyone else is projected to have shortages. What SEMI supply chain? Where are they getting hardware for litho? Lenses? They aren't building that, they have no idea how. SMIC is state backed, they got one run of 7nm chips to huwei for the latest phone and fizzled.... https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/chinas-smic-posts-a-80percent-drop-in-third-quarter-profit.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/chinas-smic-posts-a-80percen... As for skilled labor ... where? China stopped publishing youth employment, all those fresh grads dont have JOBS and most of their tech base is in shambles. Any one with any skill went outside the PRC for work and are kept in restricted roles for fear of them stealing everything in sight (tech wise). >> Except military hardware use older harden nodes that PRC has domestic supply for, they're not running out of chips for military applications. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/07/a-shortage-of-optics-was-holding-back-russian-tank-production-that-shortage-may-have-ended/?sh=160c405c3dff https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/07/a-shortage-... These are semi conductor based devices... MEMS devices make cell phones work (filtering) https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230811PD215/5g-china-huawei.html https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230811PD215/5g-china-huawe... None of this particularly new tech. The problem is that just because you have the machines and undestand how it works doesn't mean you can operationalize it. The restrictions have been impactful across the board and "catching up" is not just "doing it". These are insanely complex processes and getting them to work, and then at scale is a multi year process.... >> If you actually pay attention, you'll note patriot in UKR got penetrated by 6 shit tier kinzhal https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/09/a-russian-drone-spotted-a-ukrainian-patriot-air-defense-crew-convoying-near-the-front-line-soon-a-russian-hypersonic-missile-streaked-down/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/09/a-russian-d... Spotted by a drone, at the front line (to take out Russian jets) and caught with its pants down. This is not the systems failure your portraying this is an intel win for the Russians. As for the Red Sea, Live fire exercises are important, you can train all you want but doing it and proving it are another matter. The patriot tech for this sort of interceptions has had no live tests at sea till now... Lastly Russia has tried on several occasions to take out patriot batteries. They have missles that supposedly have the ability to directly engage them then why have they not used them? https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/air-defence-systems-repelling-attacks-ukraine-early-tuesday-officials-2023-05-16/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/air-defence-systems-rep... > allege US clocked PRC DF27 tests at mach 8+ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_X-43 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_X-43 Every one tests these technologies... putting them into production is another matter... >>> no one's going to blockade PRC without their own energy infra getting blown up. Including US who goes from US to Yemen without a few hundred oil refineries and LNG plants. Or domestic semis, or data centres, or F35 factories. At the point that the PRC striking a US target in response to a blocked ends in a nuclear exchange... Your making the point that the PRC wont try for tawain pretty clear here with this argument as there is no outcome that doesn't end in a global catastrophe. >> anything less than idea since they're letting enough slip through that their performance has essentially validates Quick head count: Ukraine a massive country has enough patriots to basically defend a bit of critical infrastructure (5)... Taiwan a country of microscopic size in comparison has 14 at last count + their own home grown defense system, and the ability to fire retaliatory strikes at china (who has too massive of a cost line to deploy the same level of protection even if they had it). >> PRC's focus on high end rocket force. If it performs like everything else does in the PRC then they would have been better off buying bottle rockets. >> You think this is US showing sabers work, but it's exposing they don't work remotely well enough against threats they were designed for, AKA, what PRC rocketry was specifically designed to defeat. If Russia or china had a missile that could have taken out an active patriot battery it would have been used. Why? Because every country in the world would have bought them. The windfall for a cash strapped Russia or chines defense industry would have been huge. TLDR: Active patriots have yet to meet a target that they cant take out. Chips, and chip manufacturing technology continues to hurt china and Russia. The decline of China has been sharp and painful for them.

zer00eyz 3y ago

>> Everyone wants to deal with PRC so much that US literally had to impose sanctions Everyone is happy to sell as much as they can to whomever they can. The number of western companies fleeing the PRC says that every one is excited to keep betting on china? See: https://www.forbes.com/sites/betsyatkins/2023/08/07/manufacturing-moving-out-of-china-for-friendlier-shores/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/betsyatkins/2023/08/07/manufact... >> PRC is minting more STEM/highskilled than OECD combined, and only actor projected to build enough talent to actually have fully indigenous semi supply chain while everyone else is projected to have shortages. What SEMI supply chain? Where are they getting hardware for litho? Lenses? They aren't building that, they have no idea how. SMIC is state backed, they got one run of 7nm chips to huwei for the latest phone and fizzled.... https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/chinas-smic-posts-a-80percent-drop-in-third-quarter-profit.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/chinas-smic-posts-a-80percen... As for skilled labor ... where? China stopped publishing youth employment, all those fresh grads dont have JOBS and most of their tech base is in shambles. Any one with any skill went outside the PRC for work and are kept in restricted roles for fear of them stealing everything in sight (tech wise). >> Except military hardware use older harden nodes that PRC has domestic supply for, they're not running out of chips for military applications. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/07/a-shortage-of-optics-was-holding-back-russian-tank-production-that-shortage-may-have-ended/?sh=160c405c3dff https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/07/a-shortage-... These are semi conductor based devices... MEMS devices make cell phones work (filtering) https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230811PD215/5g-china-huawei.html https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230811PD215/5g-china-huawe... None of this particularly new tech. The problem is that just because you have the machines and undestand how it works doesn't mean you can operationalize it. The restrictions have been impactful across the board and "catching up" is not just "doing it". These are insanely complex processes and getting them to work, and then at scale is a multi year process.... >> If you actually pay attention, you'll note patriot in UKR got penetrated by 6 shit tier kinzhal https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/09/a-russian-drone-spotted-a-ukrainian-patriot-air-defense-crew-convoying-near-the-front-line-soon-a-russian-hypersonic-missile-streaked-down/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/09/a-russian-d... Spotted by a drone, at the front line (to take out Russian jets) and caught with its pants down. This is not the systems failure your portraying this is an intel win for the Russians. As for the Red Sea, Live fire exercises are important, you can train all you want but doing it and proving it are another matter. The patriot tech for this sort of interceptions has had no live tests at sea till now... Lastly Russia has tried on several occasions to take out patriot batteries. They have missles that supposedly have the ability to directly engage them then why have they not used them? https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/air-defence-systems-repelling-attacks-ukraine-early-tuesday-officials-2023-05-16/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/air-defence-systems-rep... > allege US clocked PRC DF27 tests at mach 8+ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_X-43 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_X-43 Every one tests these technologies... putting them into production is another matter... >>> no one's going to blockade PRC without their own energy infra getting blown up. Including US who goes from US to Yemen without a few hundred oil refineries and LNG plants. Or domestic semis, or data centres, or F35 factories. At the point that the PRC striking a US target in response to a blocked ends in a nuclear exchange... Your making the point that the PRC wont try for tawain pretty clear here with this argument as there is no outcome that doesn't end in a global catastrophe. >> anything less than idea since they're letting enough slip through that their performance has essentially validates Quick head count: Ukraine a massive country has enough patriots to basically defend a bit of critical infrastructure (5)... Taiwan a country of microscopic size in comparison has 14 at last count + their own home grown defense system, and the ability to fire retaliatory strikes at china (who has too massive of a cost line to deploy the same level of protection even if they had it). >> PRC's focus on high end rocket force. If it performs like everything else does in the PRC then they would have been better off buying bottle rockets. >> You think this is US showing sabers work, but it's exposing they don't work remotely well enough against threats they were designed for, AKA, what PRC rocketry was specifically designed to defeat. If Russia or china had a missile that could have taken out an active patriot battery it would have been used. Why? Because every country in the world would have bought them. The windfall for a cash strapped Russia or chines defense industry would have been huge. TLDR: Active patriots have yet to meet a target that they cant take out. Chips, and chip manufacturing technology continues to hurt china and Russia. The decline of China has been sharp and painful for them.