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>>> The bottom line that shall not be stated is nobody wants to deal with Taiwan and everyone is happy dealing with China. What? No one wants to deal with chin

>>> The bottom line that shall not be stated is nobody wants to deal with Taiwan and everyone is happy dealing with China. What? No one wants to deal with china. Everyone is moving their manufacturing OUT as fast as they can. China in its desperate throws to remain relevant in the face of a massive population decline is desperate (the same way Russia is in the face of their population decline)... No one wanted to sell the tech to china to make modern chips before all the wars and saber rattling of belt and road (facing). And china lacks the will, talent and now access to catch up. ASee the Ukraine war and Russia. To see what "no chips" looks like. modern optics on tanks are now outside what they can do, never mind glass cockpits of 4th and 5th gen fighters, never mind gps and smart mentions, never mind drones... >> Chips made literally anywhere else, including China, are fine; China might blow up Taiwan, but Taiwan can't reciprocate and the west will not fight China.[1] China isnt stupid, they keep pouring money into missles in the hopes of being able to do exactly what you're saying. The problem is that without sea lanes then china runs out of oil, steel and food inside 6 months. If you pay attention to recent conflicts you will note that the patriot missile system has been shooting down the best Russia has to offer. You will note that the anti missile ships off the coast of Yemen are using the same system and missles. That the brits and French are in on the game. You will note that all the intel on chinas missile force (farce) has leaked everywhere... China wont invade shit. >>> [1]: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/intel-staves https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/intel-staves... This is a holdover deal on the chip ban selling chips to china cause they cant make a thing. You aren't making a strong point with this.

Dalewyn 3y ago
>What? No one wants to deal with china. And yet everyone keeps dealing with China, because money talks and China has lots of it. Whether it's Intel and Nvidia exporting their latest tech to China, Apple manufacturing iPhones in China, BYD poised to crowd out the car industry (sans America), or having our cheapass blue jeans produced in the finest sweatshops, everyone wants to deal with China. No one wants to deal with the dynamite basket that is Taiwan. Initiatives like CHIPS are so we can eventually leave Taiwan out to dry, not because we want to overcome China. >No one wanted to sell the tech to china to make modern chips before all the wars and saber rattling of belt and road (facing). Except everyone wanted to sell to China because the monies involved was ludicrous and that is still the case today. >And china lacks the will, talent and now access to catch up. China has practical implementations of 7nm process and are shipping product today from what I understand. Pedantically, China is ahead of Intel and thus the US right now. This is something the west should be terrified of, now is not the time for coping or denialism. Let alone the implied sentiments of "Ha ha, Intel's losing big bucks! Losers!" in threads like this which are the epitome of counterproductivity if the goal really is overcoming China instead of just ridding ourselves of Taiwan. >See the Ukraine war and Russia. To see what "no chips" looks like. modern optics on tanks are now outside what they can do, never mind glass cockpits of 4th and 5th gen fighters, never mind gps and smart mentions, never mind drones... And yet Ukraine still hasn't won. With western high tech. Mind you, I want Russia to lose and lose hard because I hate the idea of warmongering validated as a means of diplomacy in the 21st century, but it is what it is. It also goes without saying you don't need high tech to kill people and destroy entire landscapes. >China isnt stupid, they keep pouring money into missles in the hopes of being able to do exactly what you're saying. Yes? I said China might blow up Taiwan and they most likely eventually will. China couldn't care less about TSMC or really anyone and anything that exists on that island, they just want the island and they will invade if or when the geopolitical winds blow appropriately for them. >If you pay attention to recent conflicts you will note that the patriot missile system has been shooting down the best Russia has to offer. You will note that the anti missile ships off the coast of Yemen are using the same system and missles. That the brits and French are in on the game. Congratulations, we've managed to do the same thing as the misguided cavemen but did so behind schedule and over budget. Truly an achievement for the Nobel Peace Prize. Yeah no.
- zer00eyz 3y ago
  > And yet everyone keeps dealing with China, because money talks and China has lots of it. https://apnews.com/article/china-economy-manufacturing-pmi-8f2bd2c1d2025808f3ee1f2d3c3d0897 https://apnews.com/article/china-economy-manufacturing-pmi-8... Chinese manufacturing has been pummeled in the last 2 years. This is on the heels of their zero covid lockdowns that were screwing things up. Here is port throughput in decline: https://www.fitchratings.com/research/infrastructure-project-finance/chinas-port-throughput-growth-to-slow-amid-weak-demand-18-02-2024 https://www.fitchratings.com/research/infrastructure-project... >> Whether it's Intel and Nvidia exporting their latest tech to China, The Chinese are buying what they cant make and these companies like to sell things >> Apple manufacturing iPhones in China, Apple and foxcon moving to India: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-production-of-apple-iphones-has-been-moving-from-china-to-india https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-production-of-apple-ip... >> BYD poised to crowd out the car industry (sans America), BYD a state backed and funded company is loosing to Tesla. https://www.ft.com/content/4f1a2188-ced0-4018-998d-5148209a5f5e https://www.ft.com/content/4f1a2188-ced0-4018-998d-5148209a5... And BYD has some... uhhh.. quality issues: https://insideevs.com/news/712148/byd-quality-problems-hit-international-markets/ https://insideevs.com/news/712148/byd-quality-problems-hit-i... >> or having our cheapass blue jeans produced in the finest sweatshops, everyone wants to deal with China. Clothing production went to Vietnam over a decade ago ... and china is so bad right now that Vietnam is having a bit of a migrant crisis of its own: https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/workers-10292020111656.html https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/workers-1029202011165... >>> China has practical implementations of 7nm process and are shipping product today from what I understand. Yes china made a 7nm chip. There has been quite an effort to figure out how they got an ASML machine to do that because they dont have the tech to build that locally. They also dont have the tech to build the lenses for it either (Zeiss holds that). So our German(Zeiss) and Dutch(asml) partners have the tech to build the chips on lock (and aren't cutting that loose). It's not like that chip got stellar reviews either... Furthermore china then went and banned most government workers (a large chunk of the population) from using iPhones at work. Even with all this the sales numbers and reviews out of china were ... mixed. It's hard to filter whats propaganda, but there are some legit complaints about the device. ... this doesn't help with cameras (chips) or band filters (5g, where the mate 20 really sucks) but these are less critical techs and easier to catch up on than something like EUV... A good primer on ASML and chip production is asianomitry on YouTube. >> And yet Ukraine still hasn't won. With western high tech. 60 tanks and air defense isnt going to win them the war. The modern jets are coming but far too late. The long range weapons they have needed were also very late and in low quantity. If you haven't been paying attention their home grown drone program has made a mockery of the Russian navy and their long range air drones are now strking deep into Russia. Everyone is afraid of "poking the bear" the French seem to be getting over that now. However you should be alarmed that the French are suggesting putting troops on the ground in Russia. Their nuclear policy is one that allows for them to use those weapons preemptively.... There has also be a fair bit of learning in the Ukraine war.... Drones have made 155 artillery into precision weapons with incredible impact. We also cant give the Ukrainians enough 155 to keep them in the fight, and there is some debate about who should foot the bill for building more factories to make shells. Our lack of "basics" has done as much to harm the war as limiting ranged and high tech weapons. No one would win the fight with what the Ukrainians have been given... and we would not take the fight if that was what we had to work with. >> Yes? I said China might blow up Taiwan and they most likely eventually will. Their moment to do this was after Korea, or Vietnam. The problem is that they dont have the navy, missies or landing power to take the dam island from the Taiwanese. >> China couldn't care less about TSMC or really anyone and anything that exists on that island, China thinks that Taiwan is filled with Chinese. Some of the tawinese see themselves as Chinese. Blowing up the island would be counter to decades of their narrative that Taiwan is part of china.... China blowing up the island is about as likely as the US blowing up purto rico. The idea that this is the goal of china is deeply misinformed. >> Congratulations, we've managed to do the same thing as the misguided cavemen but did so behind schedule and over budget. Truly an achievement for the Nobel Peace Prize. Right. You really need to catch up on news and geopolitics. 1. China/russia/india all spent a lot of money on hypersonic missles with the idea that they would be a game changer in taking out carrier groups and bypassing missile defense. 2. The few patriot batteries that we gave to Ukraine have shot down Russias modern hypersonic missiles. This makes 2 decades of posturing by china and Russia moot. 3. Chinas rocket force have been all over the news. Some intel agency has leaked all sort of internal info about them. Chinas rocket force are their "defense" against a us carrier group, they are the tip of the spear to invade Taiwan. You can read the news yourself but the highlights are, corrupt, and unprepared. 4. Those patriots are now on ships. Our navy has the capacity to protect a carrier group from the biggest non nuclear threat hypersonic. And these folks are getting practical training off the coast of Yemen right now. Our allies are even in on the action, the people who would be blockading china with us in the event of a war. China is saber rattling. We did it right back to them... and showed that our sabers work and showed the world theirs dont. It's a bit of detant but its working for now.
maxglute 3y ago
Agree domestic semi is crucial national security. For disagreements: >No one wants to deal with china Everyone wants to deal with PRC so much that US literally had to impose sanctions and export controls to make it illegal. And then extra territorialize bans/frictions on partners who didn't want to by leaning on American origin tech %s until they had no choice. > will, talent PRC is minting more STEM/highskilled than OECD combined, and only actor projected to build enough talent to actually have fully indigenous semi supply chain while everyone else is projected to have shortages. > what "no chips" looks like Except military hardware use older harden nodes that PRC has domestic supply for, they're not running out of chips for military applications. > patriot missile system If you actually pay attention, you'll note patriot in UKR got penetrated by 6 shit tier kinzhals @mach3 and now multiple launchers are getting wiped from 80s hardware right after RU unfucked their primitive killchain, tier1 flight IIA/III DDGs in redsea are letting slip through enough uncoordinated old gen AShMs attacks that US can't guarantee redsea shipping. Old ghetto hardware that travels at a few maches or even subsonic, launched not in coordinated fashion, with even shittier kill chain than RU. Yet state of the art US missile defense interception isn't performant enough against these ordnances not used at scale and likely wholely inadequate for modern AShMs that travel much faster. You'll note last round of PRC rocket force leaks are retarded, rocket fuel for hotpot? Conveniently leaked around TW election to send msg that PRC won't "invade shit". It's called motivated propaganda. Meanwhile actual Teixeira leak - the stuff US prosecutes because it's actually credibly damaging - allege US clocked PRC DF27 tests at mach 8+, and many signs point to PRC pursing global prompt strike with rocketry = no one's going to blockade PRC without their own energy infra getting blown up. Including US who goes from US to Yemen without a few hundred oil refineries and LNG plants. Or domestic semis, or data centres, or F35 factories. TLDR western ABM performed about expected relative to threats (engaging slow targets up mach3), if anything less than idea since they're letting enough slip through that their performance has essentially validates PRC's focus on high end rocket force. You think this is US showing sabers work, but it's exposing they don't work remotely well enough against threats they were designed for, AKA, what PRC rocketry was specifically designed to defeat. Now they're thinking instead of sending salvo of 100 mach 6+ AShMs against a carrier group maybe only need to send 50. Or 300 cheaper AShMs/TLAMs. What recent conflicts has taught us is scale>wunderwaffe, lesson learned from previous wars.

Dalewyn 3y ago

>What? No one wants to deal with china. And yet everyone keeps dealing with China, because money talks and China has lots of it. Whether it's Intel and Nvidia exporting their latest tech to China, Apple manufacturing iPhones in China, BYD poised to crowd out the car industry (sans America), or having our cheapass blue jeans produced in the finest sweatshops, everyone wants to deal with China. No one wants to deal with the dynamite basket that is Taiwan. Initiatives like CHIPS are so we can eventually leave Taiwan out to dry, not because we want to overcome China. >No one wanted to sell the tech to china to make modern chips before all the wars and saber rattling of belt and road (facing). Except everyone wanted to sell to China because the monies involved was ludicrous and that is still the case today. >And china lacks the will, talent and now access to catch up. China has practical implementations of 7nm process and are shipping product today from what I understand. Pedantically, China is ahead of Intel and thus the US right now. This is something the west should be terrified of, now is not the time for coping or denialism. Let alone the implied sentiments of "Ha ha, Intel's losing big bucks! Losers!" in threads like this which are the epitome of counterproductivity if the goal really is overcoming China instead of just ridding ourselves of Taiwan. >See the Ukraine war and Russia. To see what "no chips" looks like. modern optics on tanks are now outside what they can do, never mind glass cockpits of 4th and 5th gen fighters, never mind gps and smart mentions, never mind drones... And yet Ukraine still hasn't won. With western high tech. Mind you, I want Russia to lose and lose hard because I hate the idea of warmongering validated as a means of diplomacy in the 21st century, but it is what it is. It also goes without saying you don't need high tech to kill people and destroy entire landscapes. >China isnt stupid, they keep pouring money into missles in the hopes of being able to do exactly what you're saying. Yes? I said China might blow up Taiwan and they most likely eventually will. China couldn't care less about TSMC or really anyone and anything that exists on that island, they just want the island and they will invade if or when the geopolitical winds blow appropriately for them. >If you pay attention to recent conflicts you will note that the patriot missile system has been shooting down the best Russia has to offer. You will note that the anti missile ships off the coast of Yemen are using the same system and missles. That the brits and French are in on the game. Congratulations, we've managed to do the same thing as the misguided cavemen but did so behind schedule and over budget. Truly an achievement for the Nobel Peace Prize. Yeah no.

zer00eyz 3y ago
> And yet everyone keeps dealing with China, because money talks and China has lots of it. https://apnews.com/article/china-economy-manufacturing-pmi-8f2bd2c1d2025808f3ee1f2d3c3d0897 https://apnews.com/article/china-economy-manufacturing-pmi-8... Chinese manufacturing has been pummeled in the last 2 years. This is on the heels of their zero covid lockdowns that were screwing things up. Here is port throughput in decline: https://www.fitchratings.com/research/infrastructure-project-finance/chinas-port-throughput-growth-to-slow-amid-weak-demand-18-02-2024 https://www.fitchratings.com/research/infrastructure-project... >> Whether it's Intel and Nvidia exporting their latest tech to China, The Chinese are buying what they cant make and these companies like to sell things >> Apple manufacturing iPhones in China, Apple and foxcon moving to India: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-production-of-apple-iphones-has-been-moving-from-china-to-india https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-production-of-apple-ip... >> BYD poised to crowd out the car industry (sans America), BYD a state backed and funded company is loosing to Tesla. https://www.ft.com/content/4f1a2188-ced0-4018-998d-5148209a5f5e https://www.ft.com/content/4f1a2188-ced0-4018-998d-5148209a5... And BYD has some... uhhh.. quality issues: https://insideevs.com/news/712148/byd-quality-problems-hit-international-markets/ https://insideevs.com/news/712148/byd-quality-problems-hit-i... >> or having our cheapass blue jeans produced in the finest sweatshops, everyone wants to deal with China. Clothing production went to Vietnam over a decade ago ... and china is so bad right now that Vietnam is having a bit of a migrant crisis of its own: https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/workers-10292020111656.html https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/workers-1029202011165... >>> China has practical implementations of 7nm process and are shipping product today from what I understand. Yes china made a 7nm chip. There has been quite an effort to figure out how they got an ASML machine to do that because they dont have the tech to build that locally. They also dont have the tech to build the lenses for it either (Zeiss holds that). So our German(Zeiss) and Dutch(asml) partners have the tech to build the chips on lock (and aren't cutting that loose). It's not like that chip got stellar reviews either... Furthermore china then went and banned most government workers (a large chunk of the population) from using iPhones at work. Even with all this the sales numbers and reviews out of china were ... mixed. It's hard to filter whats propaganda, but there are some legit complaints about the device. ... this doesn't help with cameras (chips) or band filters (5g, where the mate 20 really sucks) but these are less critical techs and easier to catch up on than something like EUV... A good primer on ASML and chip production is asianomitry on YouTube. >> And yet Ukraine still hasn't won. With western high tech. 60 tanks and air defense isnt going to win them the war. The modern jets are coming but far too late. The long range weapons they have needed were also very late and in low quantity. If you haven't been paying attention their home grown drone program has made a mockery of the Russian navy and their long range air drones are now strking deep into Russia. Everyone is afraid of "poking the bear" the French seem to be getting over that now. However you should be alarmed that the French are suggesting putting troops on the ground in Russia. Their nuclear policy is one that allows for them to use those weapons preemptively.... There has also be a fair bit of learning in the Ukraine war.... Drones have made 155 artillery into precision weapons with incredible impact. We also cant give the Ukrainians enough 155 to keep them in the fight, and there is some debate about who should foot the bill for building more factories to make shells. Our lack of "basics" has done as much to harm the war as limiting ranged and high tech weapons. No one would win the fight with what the Ukrainians have been given... and we would not take the fight if that was what we had to work with. >> Yes? I said China might blow up Taiwan and they most likely eventually will. Their moment to do this was after Korea, or Vietnam. The problem is that they dont have the navy, missies or landing power to take the dam island from the Taiwanese. >> China couldn't care less about TSMC or really anyone and anything that exists on that island, China thinks that Taiwan is filled with Chinese. Some of the tawinese see themselves as Chinese. Blowing up the island would be counter to decades of their narrative that Taiwan is part of china.... China blowing up the island is about as likely as the US blowing up purto rico. The idea that this is the goal of china is deeply misinformed. >> Congratulations, we've managed to do the same thing as the misguided cavemen but did so behind schedule and over budget. Truly an achievement for the Nobel Peace Prize. Right. You really need to catch up on news and geopolitics. 1. China/russia/india all spent a lot of money on hypersonic missles with the idea that they would be a game changer in taking out carrier groups and bypassing missile defense. 2. The few patriot batteries that we gave to Ukraine have shot down Russias modern hypersonic missiles. This makes 2 decades of posturing by china and Russia moot. 3. Chinas rocket force have been all over the news. Some intel agency has leaked all sort of internal info about them. Chinas rocket force are their "defense" against a us carrier group, they are the tip of the spear to invade Taiwan. You can read the news yourself but the highlights are, corrupt, and unprepared. 4. Those patriots are now on ships. Our navy has the capacity to protect a carrier group from the biggest non nuclear threat hypersonic. And these folks are getting practical training off the coast of Yemen right now. Our allies are even in on the action, the people who would be blockading china with us in the event of a war. China is saber rattling. We did it right back to them... and showed that our sabers work and showed the world theirs dont. It's a bit of detant but its working for now.

maxglute 3y ago

Agree domestic semi is crucial national security. For disagreements: >No one wants to deal with china Everyone wants to deal with PRC so much that US literally had to impose sanctions and export controls to make it illegal. And then extra territorialize bans/frictions on partners who didn't want to by leaning on American origin tech %s until they had no choice. > will, talent PRC is minting more STEM/highskilled than OECD combined, and only actor projected to build enough talent to actually have fully indigenous semi supply chain while everyone else is projected to have shortages. > what "no chips" looks like Except military hardware use older harden nodes that PRC has domestic supply for, they're not running out of chips for military applications. > patriot missile system If you actually pay attention, you'll note patriot in UKR got penetrated by 6 shit tier kinzhals @mach3 and now multiple launchers are getting wiped from 80s hardware right after RU unfucked their primitive killchain, tier1 flight IIA/III DDGs in redsea are letting slip through enough uncoordinated old gen AShMs attacks that US can't guarantee redsea shipping. Old ghetto hardware that travels at a few maches or even subsonic, launched not in coordinated fashion, with even shittier kill chain than RU. Yet state of the art US missile defense interception isn't performant enough against these ordnances not used at scale and likely wholely inadequate for modern AShMs that travel much faster. You'll note last round of PRC rocket force leaks are retarded, rocket fuel for hotpot? Conveniently leaked around TW election to send msg that PRC won't "invade shit". It's called motivated propaganda. Meanwhile actual Teixeira leak - the stuff US prosecutes because it's actually credibly damaging - allege US clocked PRC DF27 tests at mach 8+, and many signs point to PRC pursing global prompt strike with rocketry = no one's going to blockade PRC without their own energy infra getting blown up. Including US who goes from US to Yemen without a few hundred oil refineries and LNG plants. Or domestic semis, or data centres, or F35 factories. TLDR western ABM performed about expected relative to threats (engaging slow targets up mach3), if anything less than idea since they're letting enough slip through that their performance has essentially validates PRC's focus on high end rocket force. You think this is US showing sabers work, but it's exposing they don't work remotely well enough against threats they were designed for, AKA, what PRC rocketry was specifically designed to defeat. Now they're thinking instead of sending salvo of 100 mach 6+ AShMs against a carrier group maybe only need to send 50. Or 300 cheaper AShMs/TLAMs. What recent conflicts has taught us is scale>wunderwaffe, lesson learned from previous wars.