4 ms·

In real terms I'd expect Chinese middle class to be converging up to European standards right now. The Chinese have quite a lot of infrastructure; by the number

by roenxi 3y ago

In real terms I'd expect Chinese middle class to be converging up to European standards right now. The Chinese have quite a lot of infrastructure; by the numbers [0] they're capable of sustaining a really comfortable existence. It hasn't stabilised but China isn't a byword for poverty any more. That being said, it does seem likely that the US living standards will drop. It isn't obvious what is supposed to be driving living standards given that the US has been undermining its own energy and manufacturing sectors. Their political situation also seems to be deteriorating. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-energy-use?tab=chart&country=CHN~GBR https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-energy-use?tab...

georgeplusplus 3y ago
The difference is population, there are A LOT of Chinese that are in the rural areas still making very little. European wealth is generational. Land and homes that have been in the family from infrastructure that has stood the test of time. Chinese wealth is rather New money and it’s all paper thin based on construction that isn’t built to last. Look at Guangzhou they are already relocating their downtown. Before it was Baiyun then it became tianhe, now they’re focusing on making New Baiyun already in just 20 years.
alephnerd 3y ago
> Chinese middle class to be converging up to European standards Depends where in Europe and where in China. Beijing, Shanghai, and Greater Bay Area have definitely converged with Central Europe (eg. Praha, Warsaw, Budapest, maybe even Wien) The rest of urban China has converged with Eastern Europe (Russia, Poland, Türkiye, Serbia) and Thailand+Malaysia. Rural and some of the poorer provinces are still stuck around India levels. There's a reason why household incomes per capita are still around $450/mo [0] - significantly lower than Thailand [1] or Serbia [2]. Per Capita Urban Household Income is around $7k/yr but for Rural Households it is around $2.5k/yr I know some Chinese will find this a hot take, but this urban-rural divide is very similar to Brazil and Mexico, both countries that share similar developmental indicators to China. [0] - https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202402/t20240201_1947120.html https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202402/t202402... [1] - https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/storage/survey_detail/2023/20231018103954_32528.pdf https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/storage/survey_detail/2023/2023... [2] - https://www.stat.gov.rs/en-us/vesti/statisticalrelease/?p=15069&a=24&s=2403?s=2403 https://www.stat.gov.rs/en-us/vesti/statisticalrelease/?p=15...
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- voytec 3y ago
  > Central Europe (eg. Praha, Warsaw, Budapest, maybe even Wien) > Eastern Europe (Russia, Poland, Türkiye, Serbia) Warsaw is the capital of Poland.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    Yes I know. I meant Warsaw is significantly different from the rest of Poland developmentally.
    - voytec 3y ago
      Warsaw as most of the eastern part Poland is still heavily influenced by the post-Soviet mentality. Warsaw is even less diverse than ~380k-headcount Lublin (also eastern part) due to Lublin's universities welcoming international students with relatively cheap living costs for years now. I live in Poland for 40 years, I'm biased, but I'd say that if you're looking for "western" cities - it's not Warsaw but Gdańsk or Poznań. Warsaw will keep its post-soviet mentality at least until the generation remembering WW2 is alive. Of course younger people may lack exposure to it, but I'm generalising on city/region-level.
      - alephnerd 3y ago
        I'm just solely going by developmental metrics and median household income. Eastern Poland might have a fairly conservative society (as is reflected by Sejm and Presidential election results), but because Warsaw is the political, financial, and social capital of Poland, social and economic infrastructure is much stronger there than in other parts of Poland - west or east. It's the same way that Beijing is luxurious but very socially conservative compared to Shanghai.

by roenxi 3y ago

georgeplusplus 3y ago

The difference is population, there are A LOT of Chinese that are in the rural areas still making very little. European wealth is generational. Land and homes that have been in the family from infrastructure that has stood the test of time. Chinese wealth is rather New money and it’s all paper thin based on construction that isn’t built to last. Look at Guangzhou they are already relocating their downtown. Before it was Baiyun then it became tianhe, now they’re focusing on making New Baiyun already in just 20 years.

alephnerd 3y ago

> Chinese middle class to be converging up to European standards Depends where in Europe and where in China. Beijing, Shanghai, and Greater Bay Area have definitely converged with Central Europe (eg. Praha, Warsaw, Budapest, maybe even Wien) The rest of urban China has converged with Eastern Europe (Russia, Poland, Türkiye, Serbia) and Thailand+Malaysia. Rural and some of the poorer provinces are still stuck around India levels. There's a reason why household incomes per capita are still around $450/mo [0] - significantly lower than Thailand [1] or Serbia [2]. Per Capita Urban Household Income is around $7k/yr but for Rural Households it is around $2.5k/yr I know some Chinese will find this a hot take, but this urban-rural divide is very similar to Brazil and Mexico, both countries that share similar developmental indicators to China. [0] - https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202402/t20240201_1947120.html https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202402/t202402... [1] - https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/storage/survey_detail/2023/20231018103954_32528.pdf https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/storage/survey_detail/2023/2023... [2] - https://www.stat.gov.rs/en-us/vesti/statisticalrelease/?p=15069&a=24&s=2403?s=2403 https://www.stat.gov.rs/en-us/vesti/statisticalrelease/?p=15...

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
voytec 3y ago
> Central Europe (eg. Praha, Warsaw, Budapest, maybe even Wien) > Eastern Europe (Russia, Poland, Türkiye, Serbia) Warsaw is the capital of Poland.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  Yes I know. I meant Warsaw is significantly different from the rest of Poland developmentally.
  - voytec 3y ago
    Warsaw as most of the eastern part Poland is still heavily influenced by the post-Soviet mentality. Warsaw is even less diverse than ~380k-headcount Lublin (also eastern part) due to Lublin's universities welcoming international students with relatively cheap living costs for years now. I live in Poland for 40 years, I'm biased, but I'd say that if you're looking for "western" cities - it's not Warsaw but Gdańsk or Poznań. Warsaw will keep its post-soviet mentality at least until the generation remembering WW2 is alive. Of course younger people may lack exposure to it, but I'm generalising on city/region-level.
    - alephnerd 3y ago
      I'm just solely going by developmental metrics and median household income. Eastern Poland might have a fairly conservative society (as is reflected by Sejm and Presidential election results), but because Warsaw is the political, financial, and social capital of Poland, social and economic infrastructure is much stronger there than in other parts of Poland - west or east. It's the same way that Beijing is luxurious but very socially conservative compared to Shanghai.