3 ms·

Are those two events/teams comparable so that one could expect the same type of odds? I'm not much into betting, but will not the odds change also based on how

Are those two events/teams comparable so that one could expect the same type of odds? I'm not much into betting, but will not the odds change also based on how people are betting. So if many people started to bet on the unexpected result, due to for example that the unexpected Leicester team won last time, wouldn't odds tighten up automatically?

dmurray 3y ago
> Are those two events/teams comparable so that one could expect the same type of odds? Yes IMO. It might be more rigorous to say: before 2016 there were always a handful of teams priced at 5000-1, after 2016 there were not. The league didn't objectively get more competitive. > So if many people started to bet on the unexpected result, due to for example that the unexpected Leicester team won last time, wouldn't odds tighten up automatically Definitely possible, and would explain the effect regardless of whether the punters were smart money Nicholas Taleb types who spotted that black swans were systematically underpriced, or gamblers dreaming of another Leicester payday.