4 ms·

Something being in a bubble and being useful is not mutually exclusive. Remember the dot-com bubble?

by starbugs 3y ago

janalsncm 3y ago
There’s also an argument that ChatGPT kind of transcends the bubble. The bubble is everything that calls their API and now suddenly gets a huge valuation because it’s “AI”, but the feature the AI enables is of dubious value.
- starbugs 3y ago
  We'll see. I don't think that would help them if and when it pops. The survivors/big players tend to suffer disproportionally with regard to the actual fundamentals (look at dot-com again for comparison). I think it's quite clear that we are both in a bubble and GenAI has a lot of potential for productivity gains and maybe even further utility beyond that.
  - janalsncm 3y ago
    That seems about right. There are definitely some “Long Blockchain Iced Tea” aspects to the AI hype cycle. Crypto was an embarrassing bubble given that it created almost zero value. But there’s real AI products with real use cases, and a lot of other things that have no business calling themselves AI. And people who say it’s “all hype” are just as wrong as those who say it’s “all legit”.
- ben_w 3y ago
  Being the cause of the bubble doesn't make you immune to the bubble: I think Stable Diffusion is also equally important to the GenAI topic, but I wouldn't want to be one of their investors; and much as anyone saying "moat" in this context my eyes roll[0], just like every other business in the history of forever there can be no certainty that competitors won't undercut OpenAI on pricing and/or quality. And until the dust has settled on intellectual property issues (and I don't just mean lawsuits: regardless of the results of those, governments may change the rules), all of the current models and labs are at risk. [0] it's a thought-terminating cliché spoken by organic stochastic parrots.

4 ms·

Something being in a bubble and being useful is not mutually exclusive. Remember the dot-com bubble?

by starbugs 3y ago

Something being in a bubble and being useful is not mutually exclusive. Remember the dot-com bubble?

janalsncm 3y ago
There’s also an argument that ChatGPT kind of transcends the bubble. The bubble is everything that calls their API and now suddenly gets a huge valuation because it’s “AI”, but the feature the AI enables is of dubious value.
- starbugs 3y ago
  We'll see. I don't think that would help them if and when it pops. The survivors/big players tend to suffer disproportionally with regard to the actual fundamentals (look at dot-com again for comparison). I think it's quite clear that we are both in a bubble and GenAI has a lot of potential for productivity gains and maybe even further utility beyond that.
  - janalsncm 3y ago
    That seems about right. There are definitely some “Long Blockchain Iced Tea” aspects to the AI hype cycle. Crypto was an embarrassing bubble given that it created almost zero value. But there’s real AI products with real use cases, and a lot of other things that have no business calling themselves AI. And people who say it’s “all hype” are just as wrong as those who say it’s “all legit”.
- ben_w 3y ago
  Being the cause of the bubble doesn't make you immune to the bubble: I think Stable Diffusion is also equally important to the GenAI topic, but I wouldn't want to be one of their investors; and much as anyone saying "moat" in this context my eyes roll[0], just like every other business in the history of forever there can be no certainty that competitors won't undercut OpenAI on pricing and/or quality. And until the dust has settled on intellectual property issues (and I don't just mean lawsuits: regardless of the results of those, governments may change the rules), all of the current models and labs are at risk. [0] it's a thought-terminating cliché spoken by organic stochastic parrots.