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That’s … not where I thought you were going. A ban will drive demand for ICE vehicles in the years before going into effect, even if it ultimately does not.
by mdavidn 3y ago
That’s … not where I thought you were going. A ban will drive demand for ICE vehicles in the years before going into effect, even if it ultimately does not.
- MattPalmer1086 3y agoCould you explain why a ban will drive demand for ICE vehicles?
- osigurdson 3y agoIf EVs are more expensive at this time, of course it will drive demand for ICE vehicles. People will then just drive their ICE cars for longer. In this limit, it becomes like Cuba. Great work, gov.
- MattPalmer1086 3y agoSo, in the world where there isn't a ban, what happens that is better? I assume that EVs remain more expensive in both worlds?
- osigurdson 3y agoAssume the ban happened in 1995 when EVs would not have been price competitive at all with ICE cars. A ban here just means shutting down all vehicle production and people have to find a way to keep their old cars going. CO2 emissions likely do not significantly change. People likely wouldn't be happy and would (rightfully) turf any government that did such a thing. Run the same experiment in 2035. Are EVs still significantly more expensive and lack utility / range? If so, it is some approximation of the 1995 experiment. If EVs are cheap and awesome (which will probably be the case), then no ban is necessary as no one would bother to buy an ICE car anyway. In short, at best a ban makes no difference and at worst makes everyone's lives suck while having no impact toward the stated goal.