5 ms·

What I don't understand with these policies is, how the states and countries (I live in EU, which passed the same kind of laws) intend to support the massive el

by prerok 3y ago

What I don't understand with these policies is, how the states and countries (I live in EU, which passed the same kind of laws) intend to support the massive electrical demands that will put on the grid. I live in a city, small by global standards, and I am certain all these vehicles charging over night will create heavy tolls on the grid, not even to mention the last mile delivery, where apartment blocks will have to upgrade cabling as well as local transformer stations. And this will have to be done within the entire country, which already imports 40% of its electricity needs. So, does the left hand know what the right hand is doing?

thecopy 3y ago
I think there is an investment aspect to this. Without a certainty that demand will increase in a significant way the power grid wont see investment. By forcing EVs, power companies know that demand will go up in the future enabling easier investment decisions
- spxneo 3y ago
  how does this help most americans who cant afford ev? this is like "let them eat cake"
  - appplication 3y ago
    The demand for cheap electric vehicles will exist. They will be worse, and have less features, poorer construction, etc. but that’s the nature of budget stuff. Not everybody needs 300 mile range. Most folks can get most of their trips done with just a couple dozen miles of range. It sucks, but we don’t have a choice to not act against climate change. Some people are going to get fucked in some ways, but those same people will be fucked in different ways if we don’t do anything or move too slowly.
    - FpUser 3y ago
      >"Some people are going to get fucked in some ways, but those same people will be fucked in different ways if we don’t do anything or move too slowly." If fucking up people starts with those at the top I am all for it. Otherwise GFY
      - spxneo 3y ago
        its that e/acc cargo cult bs
        appplication 3y ago
        Not e/acc, just old fashioned environmental advocacy.
    - prerok 3y ago
      I agree that we have to reduce the carbon emissions. I am wondering, though, if we started at the right place. More electrical demands will further cause building new power plants, but none of them come without another, different impact. Sacrificing fields for solar power, flooding valleys for hydro, cutting trees for better wind, etc. I have seen it done and it makes little sense. Maybe these "local" changes will have other impacts we do not know about. On the other hand, decreasing meat consumption might also help significantly but there have only been half-hearted attempts at it. Farmers and people will hear none of it.
  - presentation 3y ago
    Chinese companies make cheap EVs, hopefully other countries can figure out how to make it happen.
    - porkbeer 3y ago
      They are cheap because they have no standards. Note they are not selling them in most of usa and europe that require safety testing.
      - presentation 3y ago
        I thought they’re not telling them in the USA because the USA effectively are blocking them from being sold via trade barriers and tariffs [1], meanwhile EU is buying a ton of EVs from China [2] and planning to block them with tariffs as the US did [3]. So it doesn’t sound like it’s a quality issue, sounds like that’s just your outdated opinion of Chinese manufacturing. If the western world wants to make the argument that they can do it better, then they need to do it better. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-18/chinese-ev-affordability-frightens-ford-gm-us-automakers https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-18/chinese-e... [2] https://www.transportenvironment.org/discover/one-in-four-evs-sold-in-europe-this-year-will-be-made-in-china-analysis/ https://www.transportenvironment.org/discover/one-in-four-ev... [3] https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2024/03/08/if-europe-penalizes-chinas-ev-imports-unintended-consequences-loom/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2024/03/08/if-europe...
  - sgc 3y ago
    Many EVs are already cheaper than many ICE cars. They will only get cheaper and ICE cars will be more expensive to produce in 3 years. No surprise since ICE cars are quite complex. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/evs-will-be-cheaper-produce-than-gas-powered-vehicles-by-2027-gartner-says-2024-03-07/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/evs-wi...
    - spxneo 3y ago
      how will a 2023 tesla become cheaper than a 1991 honda civic?
      - amanaplanacanal 3y ago
        A 1991 Honda civic isn’t going to be outlawed.
      - thecopy 3y ago
        It wont. I dont understand your point. Then buy a 1991 honda civic.
    - jjav 3y ago
      > Many EVs are already cheaper than many ICE cars. Can you please post a list of these many EVs that are cheaper than ICE cars? According to this article the cheapest EV is the Chevy Bolt at 26.5K. So if that is true, the list of EVs cheaper than ICE is null. https://www.edmunds.com/electric-car/articles/cheapest-electric-cars/ https://www.edmunds.com/electric-car/articles/cheapest-elect...
      - sgc 3y ago
        You misread. Many EVs are cheaper than many ICE cars means there is already a fair amount of overlap in price points, and more expensive ICE cars are already more expensive than base EVs. And then I posted a source indicating that the rapidly dropping prices of EVs means they will cost less to produce than ICE cars in a couple years, meaning that it is reasonable to think they will push out ever more of the lower end of the ICE market.
  - rgbrenner 3y ago
    Have you checked prices recently? EVs are $30k brand new. You can find 2 year old Model 3s for $17k. EVs like the Leaf from 2015/2016 are below $10k. The 8 year old equivalent in 2035 hasn't even been released yet. Battery costs are continuing to decrease even today. And the deadline isn't for another 11 years.
    - antonkochubey 3y ago
      > EVs like the Leaf from 2015/2016 are below $10k How soon will it need a $7000 battery replacement? It's a non-thermal managed battery, over here (mild climate with winters usually around 0C and summers around 20-25C) they're failing left and right after 5-7 years of active usage.
    - spxneo 3y ago
      37.9 million Americans live below the poverty line...you think they are buying a 30k car when most ppl are living paycheck to paycheck? like the lack of awareness of your own citizens in the comments is appalling. its no wonder trump is so popular with this crowd as much as I despise him.
      - amanaplanacanal 3y ago
        The older used vehicles they buy aren’t going to be banned.
        nec4b 3y ago
        No. But demand for them will be much higher and the prices will adjust.
  - dgoldstein0 3y ago
    I have a similar, though not quite the same, concern. I wonder if it would be better, instead of outright banning gas powered cars, to tax the emissions. If by some magic we could get 150mpg cars, that could be competitive with a relatively green grid. Or alternatively if mileage can't go up but it's possible to recapture some of the carbon before it leaves the tailpipe - that could also cut down the emissions, achieving the same climate goal. That said challenges with any such regime: - it's probably easier to tax the gas directly than the released emissions - it's definitely a problem to be raising the cost of living for lower-income Americans, who already don't have wiggle room in their budgets It's pretty likely that EVs will get cheaper over time, as production of them reaches better economies of scale which get optimized more with each new generation. How much cheaper of course is the big open question that remains to be seen, but some European countries have already seen mass adoption as the EVs get cheaper than ICE vehicles (Norway in particular, via a subsidy: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23939076/norway-electric-vehicle-cars-evs-tesla-oslo https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23939076/norway-electric-...). That said it's not yet the case that EVs can be made cheaper without policies shifting some of the cost. One partial answer may be extending cheap credit for buying EVs, as EVs should have cheaper maintenance in the long run and can have cheaper operating costs (though... that depends on the local price of energy, which we don't seem to be great about keeping under control) so it appears the bigger problem with EVs is upfront cost rather than total cost of ownership - a problem better credit could smooth over. Of course this then gets tied up with the problems of interest rates. <nervously glances at the Fed>
racked 3y ago
I'm inclined to feel that it's an anti-citizen policy, intended to limit people's mobility, but taking off the tinfoil hat, my conclusion would be: it's wishful thinking policy; lawmakers are hoping that all the practical concerns (power grid limitations, impractical charge times, limited range, rare earth metal depletion, etc.) will be caught by technology.
Aurornis 3y ago
Yes, grid capacity planning is a very active topic. Many larger municipalities are incentivizing more solar installs with battery capacity. Having solar generation and battery storage distributed throughout the city will reduce the need to have the grid import all of the energy demand from far away sources. Modern solar, battery, and charger combos can easily be configured to store energy produced by solar panels on the house and operate the charger in a way that primarily pulls from the solar generation and the house's battery capacity (by telling the battery to discharge while the car is charging, essentially). Power companies are also moving heavily toward "virtual power plants", which would be a good search term if you want to learn more.
- drewnick 3y ago
  I just put 14.4 kW of solar up, one of the largest installs in my community. I put 25 or so kWh of battery capacity, also respectable. Problem is, there are plenty of days where my system only generates 10-20 kWh of energy. Which is not even enough to run my house, much less my cars. And this is sunny California. Obviously I like the tech which is why I invested but I'm not sure it is going to help alleviate this issue completely (enough generation that's centralized).
- chris222 3y ago
  The grid capacity isn’t really a monolithic topic either. Here in the Northeast we have easily enough generating capacity with already planned additions. Coal generation is also virtually extinct.
- prerok 3y ago
  Don't know about virtual power plants, will look it up. Wrt. solar, that is why I specifically mentioned appartment blocks. We have many such blocks, which usually have one to two levels of garages underneath. I do not think solar power can provide enough power to charge the same area of cars (in cases of one level underground garage), much less twice such area. Furthermore, solar power is fickle: it relies heavily on nice weather and we have plenty of cloudy or rainy days.
  - 3y ago
TeeMassive 3y ago
With smart disjunctors placed before every EV chargers. Source: I work on that kind of device.
billfor 3y ago
They may just put restrictions on when you can charge and drive.
- prerok 3y ago
  Well, I lived in a country where we had oil shortages, so we had alternating days on when you can drive your car: license plate with even number can drive today, tomorrow with odd number, day after that even again. Was not pretty and drove people to do all sorts of workarounds. Then the country fell apart.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
audunw 3y ago
You might overestimate the demands on the grid. For Norway in particular it’s been calculated that everyone can drive EVs without any upgrades to the grid, if smart charging is implemented. That means having a smart meter that charges you the exact cost of electricity the minute it’s used, and having a charger or car that cuts charging when electricity is expensive. This is trivial in Norway. Everyone has smart meters and the electricity provider can interface directly with many common EV models to stop and start charging through public APIs. There’s plenty of spare capacity on the grid if EVs just use the capacity when it’s available, and avoids the peaks. Since EVs are batteries on wheels thats nearly trivial to achieve with the right incentives. Norway has a pretty strong grid to start with since electricity has been used for heating in winter for a long time. And it had already rolled out smart meters for everyone years ago. Other countries/states may need some upgrades. But it’s not as much as you’d think and with modern technology it can be done at a reasonable price. You can often push more electricity over the same pylons with newer wires. Does your country produce its own oil? If not EVs is a path to higher energy independence since EVs are more flexible with their energy demand and easier to pair with new renewables. With the right policies you might not need to import any more electricity, while getting to import less oil or fuels.
- prerok 3y ago
  I understand the benefits and I agree it's the right direction. What I miss, though, are efforts to upgrade the grid and increase electrical supply. I also understand that it is possible to do in Norway. I commend the Norwegian leaders who invested the income from selling oil into a robust and extensive infrastructure. Most of the other countries, however, do not have that luxury, foresight, or funds. Most of the other countries are also more densely populated and without the ability to deploy wind or water power plants. So, while I am happy for Norway and how it's working out for them, the reality in other countries is a bit different. Would be happy to be proven wrong :)
high_5 3y ago
> how the states and countries (I live in EU, which passed the same kind of laws) intend to support the massive electrical demands that will put on the grid. I think this question is easily explained away by politicians that this new demand would reinvigoriate innovation and the Western economies.
- prerok 3y ago
  Sure, but said politicians should make sure such investments start happening today. We won't be able to do it in a couple of years' time. So, what I am missing from these laws are explanations how they intend to tackle it.
wakawaka28 3y ago
My theory (not an original thought) is that the objective of all of this is to deprive ordinary people of their freedom to travel. Engineers must be telling someone about the seemingly insurmountable problems, yet various governments are plodding along into ruinous directions.
bryanlarsen 3y ago
> I am certain all these vehicles charging over night will create heavy tolls on the grid Electric car charging uses less power than air conditioning, and happens overnight when air conditioning generally doesn't run. Your grid is fine.

by prerok 3y ago

thecopy 3y ago

I think there is an investment aspect to this. Without a certainty that demand will increase in a significant way the power grid wont see investment. By forcing EVs, power companies know that demand will go up in the future enabling easier investment decisions

spxneo 3y ago
how does this help most americans who cant afford ev? this is like "let them eat cake"
- appplication 3y ago
  The demand for cheap electric vehicles will exist. They will be worse, and have less features, poorer construction, etc. but that’s the nature of budget stuff. Not everybody needs 300 mile range. Most folks can get most of their trips done with just a couple dozen miles of range. It sucks, but we don’t have a choice to not act against climate change. Some people are going to get fucked in some ways, but those same people will be fucked in different ways if we don’t do anything or move too slowly.
  - FpUser 3y ago
    >"Some people are going to get fucked in some ways, but those same people will be fucked in different ways if we don’t do anything or move too slowly." If fucking up people starts with those at the top I am all for it. Otherwise GFY
    - spxneo 3y ago
      its that e/acc cargo cult bs
      - appplication 3y ago
        Not e/acc, just old fashioned environmental advocacy.
  - prerok 3y ago
    I agree that we have to reduce the carbon emissions. I am wondering, though, if we started at the right place. More electrical demands will further cause building new power plants, but none of them come without another, different impact. Sacrificing fields for solar power, flooding valleys for hydro, cutting trees for better wind, etc. I have seen it done and it makes little sense. Maybe these "local" changes will have other impacts we do not know about. On the other hand, decreasing meat consumption might also help significantly but there have only been half-hearted attempts at it. Farmers and people will hear none of it.
- presentation 3y ago
  Chinese companies make cheap EVs, hopefully other countries can figure out how to make it happen.
  - porkbeer 3y ago
    They are cheap because they have no standards. Note they are not selling them in most of usa and europe that require safety testing.
    - presentation 3y ago
      I thought they’re not telling them in the USA because the USA effectively are blocking them from being sold via trade barriers and tariffs [1], meanwhile EU is buying a ton of EVs from China [2] and planning to block them with tariffs as the US did [3]. So it doesn’t sound like it’s a quality issue, sounds like that’s just your outdated opinion of Chinese manufacturing. If the western world wants to make the argument that they can do it better, then they need to do it better. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-18/chinese-ev-affordability-frightens-ford-gm-us-automakers https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-18/chinese-e... [2] https://www.transportenvironment.org/discover/one-in-four-evs-sold-in-europe-this-year-will-be-made-in-china-analysis/ https://www.transportenvironment.org/discover/one-in-four-ev... [3] https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2024/03/08/if-europe-penalizes-chinas-ev-imports-unintended-consequences-loom/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2024/03/08/if-europe...
- sgc 3y ago
  Many EVs are already cheaper than many ICE cars. They will only get cheaper and ICE cars will be more expensive to produce in 3 years. No surprise since ICE cars are quite complex. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/evs-will-be-cheaper-produce-than-gas-powered-vehicles-by-2027-gartner-says-2024-03-07/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/evs-wi...
  - spxneo 3y ago
    how will a 2023 tesla become cheaper than a 1991 honda civic?
    - amanaplanacanal 3y ago
      A 1991 Honda civic isn’t going to be outlawed.
    - thecopy 3y ago
      It wont. I dont understand your point. Then buy a 1991 honda civic.
  - jjav 3y ago
    > Many EVs are already cheaper than many ICE cars. Can you please post a list of these many EVs that are cheaper than ICE cars? According to this article the cheapest EV is the Chevy Bolt at 26.5K. So if that is true, the list of EVs cheaper than ICE is null. https://www.edmunds.com/electric-car/articles/cheapest-electric-cars/ https://www.edmunds.com/electric-car/articles/cheapest-elect...
    - sgc 3y ago
      You misread. Many EVs are cheaper than many ICE cars means there is already a fair amount of overlap in price points, and more expensive ICE cars are already more expensive than base EVs. And then I posted a source indicating that the rapidly dropping prices of EVs means they will cost less to produce than ICE cars in a couple years, meaning that it is reasonable to think they will push out ever more of the lower end of the ICE market.
- rgbrenner 3y ago
  Have you checked prices recently? EVs are $30k brand new. You can find 2 year old Model 3s for $17k. EVs like the Leaf from 2015/2016 are below $10k. The 8 year old equivalent in 2035 hasn't even been released yet. Battery costs are continuing to decrease even today. And the deadline isn't for another 11 years.
  - antonkochubey 3y ago
    > EVs like the Leaf from 2015/2016 are below $10k How soon will it need a $7000 battery replacement? It's a non-thermal managed battery, over here (mild climate with winters usually around 0C and summers around 20-25C) they're failing left and right after 5-7 years of active usage.
  - spxneo 3y ago
    37.9 million Americans live below the poverty line...you think they are buying a 30k car when most ppl are living paycheck to paycheck? like the lack of awareness of your own citizens in the comments is appalling. its no wonder trump is so popular with this crowd as much as I despise him.
    - amanaplanacanal 3y ago
      The older used vehicles they buy aren’t going to be banned.
      - nec4b 3y ago
        No. But demand for them will be much higher and the prices will adjust.
- dgoldstein0 3y ago
  I have a similar, though not quite the same, concern. I wonder if it would be better, instead of outright banning gas powered cars, to tax the emissions. If by some magic we could get 150mpg cars, that could be competitive with a relatively green grid. Or alternatively if mileage can't go up but it's possible to recapture some of the carbon before it leaves the tailpipe - that could also cut down the emissions, achieving the same climate goal. That said challenges with any such regime: - it's probably easier to tax the gas directly than the released emissions - it's definitely a problem to be raising the cost of living for lower-income Americans, who already don't have wiggle room in their budgets It's pretty likely that EVs will get cheaper over time, as production of them reaches better economies of scale which get optimized more with each new generation. How much cheaper of course is the big open question that remains to be seen, but some European countries have already seen mass adoption as the EVs get cheaper than ICE vehicles (Norway in particular, via a subsidy: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23939076/norway-electric-vehicle-cars-evs-tesla-oslo https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23939076/norway-electric-...). That said it's not yet the case that EVs can be made cheaper without policies shifting some of the cost. One partial answer may be extending cheap credit for buying EVs, as EVs should have cheaper maintenance in the long run and can have cheaper operating costs (though... that depends on the local price of energy, which we don't seem to be great about keeping under control) so it appears the bigger problem with EVs is upfront cost rather than total cost of ownership - a problem better credit could smooth over. Of course this then gets tied up with the problems of interest rates. <nervously glances at the Fed>

racked 3y ago

I'm inclined to feel that it's an anti-citizen policy, intended to limit people's mobility, but taking off the tinfoil hat, my conclusion would be: it's wishful thinking policy; lawmakers are hoping that all the practical concerns (power grid limitations, impractical charge times, limited range, rare earth metal depletion, etc.) will be caught by technology.

Aurornis 3y ago

Yes, grid capacity planning is a very active topic. Many larger municipalities are incentivizing more solar installs with battery capacity. Having solar generation and battery storage distributed throughout the city will reduce the need to have the grid import all of the energy demand from far away sources. Modern solar, battery, and charger combos can easily be configured to store energy produced by solar panels on the house and operate the charger in a way that primarily pulls from the solar generation and the house's battery capacity (by telling the battery to discharge while the car is charging, essentially). Power companies are also moving heavily toward "virtual power plants", which would be a good search term if you want to learn more.

drewnick 3y ago
I just put 14.4 kW of solar up, one of the largest installs in my community. I put 25 or so kWh of battery capacity, also respectable. Problem is, there are plenty of days where my system only generates 10-20 kWh of energy. Which is not even enough to run my house, much less my cars. And this is sunny California. Obviously I like the tech which is why I invested but I'm not sure it is going to help alleviate this issue completely (enough generation that's centralized).
chris222 3y ago
The grid capacity isn’t really a monolithic topic either. Here in the Northeast we have easily enough generating capacity with already planned additions. Coal generation is also virtually extinct.
prerok 3y ago
Don't know about virtual power plants, will look it up. Wrt. solar, that is why I specifically mentioned appartment blocks. We have many such blocks, which usually have one to two levels of garages underneath. I do not think solar power can provide enough power to charge the same area of cars (in cases of one level underground garage), much less twice such area. Furthermore, solar power is fickle: it relies heavily on nice weather and we have plenty of cloudy or rainy days.
- 3y ago

TeeMassive 3y ago

With smart disjunctors placed before every EV chargers. Source: I work on that kind of device.

billfor 3y ago

They may just put restrictions on when you can charge and drive.

prerok 3y ago
Well, I lived in a country where we had oil shortages, so we had alternating days on when you can drive your car: license plate with even number can drive today, tomorrow with odd number, day after that even again. Was not pretty and drove people to do all sorts of workarounds. Then the country fell apart.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

audunw 3y ago

You might overestimate the demands on the grid. For Norway in particular it’s been calculated that everyone can drive EVs without any upgrades to the grid, if smart charging is implemented. That means having a smart meter that charges you the exact cost of electricity the minute it’s used, and having a charger or car that cuts charging when electricity is expensive. This is trivial in Norway. Everyone has smart meters and the electricity provider can interface directly with many common EV models to stop and start charging through public APIs. There’s plenty of spare capacity on the grid if EVs just use the capacity when it’s available, and avoids the peaks. Since EVs are batteries on wheels thats nearly trivial to achieve with the right incentives. Norway has a pretty strong grid to start with since electricity has been used for heating in winter for a long time. And it had already rolled out smart meters for everyone years ago. Other countries/states may need some upgrades. But it’s not as much as you’d think and with modern technology it can be done at a reasonable price. You can often push more electricity over the same pylons with newer wires. Does your country produce its own oil? If not EVs is a path to higher energy independence since EVs are more flexible with their energy demand and easier to pair with new renewables. With the right policies you might not need to import any more electricity, while getting to import less oil or fuels.

prerok 3y ago
I understand the benefits and I agree it's the right direction. What I miss, though, are efforts to upgrade the grid and increase electrical supply. I also understand that it is possible to do in Norway. I commend the Norwegian leaders who invested the income from selling oil into a robust and extensive infrastructure. Most of the other countries, however, do not have that luxury, foresight, or funds. Most of the other countries are also more densely populated and without the ability to deploy wind or water power plants. So, while I am happy for Norway and how it's working out for them, the reality in other countries is a bit different. Would be happy to be proven wrong :)

high_5 3y ago

> how the states and countries (I live in EU, which passed the same kind of laws) intend to support the massive electrical demands that will put on the grid. I think this question is easily explained away by politicians that this new demand would reinvigoriate innovation and the Western economies.

prerok 3y ago
Sure, but said politicians should make sure such investments start happening today. We won't be able to do it in a couple of years' time. So, what I am missing from these laws are explanations how they intend to tackle it.

wakawaka28 3y ago

My theory (not an original thought) is that the objective of all of this is to deprive ordinary people of their freedom to travel. Engineers must be telling someone about the seemingly insurmountable problems, yet various governments are plodding along into ruinous directions.

bryanlarsen 3y ago

> I am certain all these vehicles charging over night will create heavy tolls on the grid Electric car charging uses less power than air conditioning, and happens overnight when air conditioning generally doesn't run. Your grid is fine.