5 ms·

this guy is right again at predicting these earth quakes: https://twitter.com/ssgeos/status/1775146068079960148 https://twitter.com/ssgeos/status/17751460680799

by spxneo 3y ago

this guy is right again at predicting these earth quakes: https://twitter.com/ssgeos/status/1775146068079960148 https://twitter.com/ssgeos/status/1775146068079960148

komali2 3y ago
Would love to see the deleted predictions lol
- spxneo 3y ago
  he's been doing this for years with youtube videos accompanying his tweets i dont think hes here to sell anything
dylan604 3y ago
this is the first time i've ever seen this person. how is he received in non youtube audiences? is this fringe level stuff, or is this accepted science? i have a hard time wrapping my head around a planetary alignment with Neptune affecting Earth. I'm not dismissing it, but my knee jerk is this can't be real, yeah?
- spxneo 3y ago
  his track record indicates this is not a random reinforcement but something worth looking into. I also didn't know what this planetary alignment is but there have been papers around it.
  - doodlebugging 3y ago
    When I was a kid some of my neighbor's trees occasionally had papers around them too. Might even have been the same kind of paper.
  - isthatafact 3y ago
    Without independent statistical analysis, he has no "track record".
- jcranmer 3y ago
  All earthquake prediction is fringe science. (FWIW, predicting a M6+ earthquake isn't that hard--an M6+ earthquake happens on Earth about every 3 days.)
jcranmer 3y ago
Looking at his feed, his big prediction was for a M7 earthquake around 3/30, so his prediction is actually 3 days off. Before that, he was looking at a M8 earthquake around 3/13. And before that, strong tremors around the end of 10/23/2023, seeming later updated to more like 10/25/2023 or 10/28/2023. None of this panned out. In general, I'm seeing a lot of misses and no real hits.
- spxneo 3y ago
  so he's off by a few days? did you go back to his past predictions that also came true last year and the year before? he's better than any predictive processes we had so far
  - jcranmer 3y ago
    His prediction is wrong. He buttonholed it to a few specific days, and missed that window. As for prior predictions, I went back 6 months. None of his predictions panned out. Although, admittedly, it's a bit difficult for me to figure out what actually constitutes a prediction since most of them tend to be the kind of vague generality that's hard to grade: "The Mars-Mercury-Jupiter conjunction on 22 September can result in a strong shake later on 23 or 24 September."--what's a "strong shake"? "Stronger seismic activity is likely to occur in the coming days"? These are the kinds of predictions that are worded vaguely enough to be dismissed if they don't come true, and can be highlighted as a miracle of prediction if something does happen. (I haven't even attempted to grade location because I can't even tell what's supposed to be suggested as possible locations. As noted elsewhere, even guessing that a M6+ earthquake is likely in the next few days isn't a difficult guess, because they'll occur more or less weekly: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/m6-world.php?year=2023 https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/m6-world.php?...).
    - spxneo 3y ago
      you went only back 6 months and he was off by a few days was to conclude your own bias to begin with...
a_random_canuck 3y ago
[flagged]
alliao 3y ago
https://twitter.com/rrichcord https://twitter.com/rrichcord reminds me of this guy
doodlebugging 3y ago
Alright. I'm a bit of a geophysicist (oil industry though, not seismology) so I figured I would take a look at this to see whether it holds up to any serious scrutiny. I'm also a huge sceptic and a cynic, only moderately prone to sarcasm but I'm gonna do my best here. It took a bit of work to dig thru the claims he makes. His claims involve planetary alignments serving as a trigger for earthquake activity so that a careful monitoring of those alignments could potentially be useful as a prediction tool. Venus especially when she falls into alignment with outer planets [0], seems to play a large role according to his work.[1] [0] https://ssgeos.org/articles/planetary-conjunctions-major-earthquakes.htm https://ssgeos.org/articles/planetary-conjunctions-major-ear... [1] https://ssgeos.org/articles/venus-and-major-earthquakes.htm https://ssgeos.org/articles/venus-and-major-earthquakes.htm It's interesting that he doesn't blame it all on an alignment of the masses of the planets (gravitational trigger) as much as he blames it on electromagnetic forces which he says are stronger and affect the atmosphere during the conjunction. Alrightee. The twitter post and the youtube video one shouldn't need to waste their time watching are available in the parent comment and in those videos you can find a general prediction. His predictions tend to be slippery. I understand why. The reason is that you need a lot of wiggle room for an earthquake prediction because you will be wrong a lot more than you will ever be close to being right. The key is to flood the market with plausible predictions that statistically have an elevated likelihood of becoming close enough to gain more eyeballs. The twitter/youtube prediction of note can be found in the nice red box which SnagIt has helped me grab for your edification. [2] It says there will be a series of right angles (conjunctions in his way of looking at the universe) that will set up opportunities for "major seismic activity, potentially peaking mid 7 magnitude around the 30th". [2] https://postimg.cc/hhCgfdFR https://postimg.cc/hhCgfdFR In fact, he updates his predictions as conditions change as you can see in his March 30 update where he gives a 60% likelihood of a 7.0-7.4 quake occurring. [3] Standard procedure is to update when your prediction date passes since by reason and statistics, that means that you're another day closer to it finally coming true. Betting on the inevitable always works if you can spin the calendar far enough ahead without running out of pages. [3] https://postimg.cc/QF3gBL8W https://postimg.cc/QF3gBL8W In earthquake prediction we have to let close be good enough so obviously this is a winner. Just kidding. I decided to take a look at the solar system to see if I could see what he thought he hoped he was seeing. It took me more than one try to find an app that would allow me to unwind the clock back to his setup dates so that I could figure whether any of it made sense. I found an app called Solar System Scope [4] that allowed me to wind the clock back and forth to watch how it all shakes out up there in the sky and so I SnagIted some screenshots to bracket the relevant days for analysis. I used his prediction to set the bounds as March 27th to April 2nd. Since the quake happened 3 days after his target date I used the 27th as the start and his target as the center date. I hope that makes sense. The next SnagIts show the planetary positions for those three dates and I gave it a good country try to set the time of the SnagIt to the time of the earthquake on each date. [4] https://postimg.cc/gallery/W36Gxh4 https://postimg.cc/gallery/W36Gxh4 You can see in the Snags that the inner planets Mercury and Venus are rolling around the Sun getting closer to an actual alignment each day that passes and Mars is headed toward that a similar geometry though it is well out of line during those dates. The nearest outer planets Saturn and Jupiter are well out of alignment while Neptune, way the hell out in center field will almost be aligned though it's relative motion will not matter much over such a short time period. Poor Pluto is out of sight to the right and I found Uranus way out in left field in case you still can't find it. Just trying to help. The most interesting part of this is that all planets except Mercury will be on the far side of the Sun for a few weeks. Mercury, as you can see, will be swinging around the front of the Sun such that by the time we have the total eclipse next week he will be visible to those who have appropriate eye protection in front of the Sun as the Moon eclipses the Sun on the 8th. I SnagIted a shot of that for anyone interested. [5] [5] https://postimg.cc/vDDK0ytF https://postimg.cc/vDDK0ytF Unfortunately I did not get that shot from the exact same perspective as the others since I managed to click somewhere inside that active window and the whole shitteroo shifted on me. I think a reasonable observer can get the idea though that everything is swinging into alignment over the next few weeks and Mercury, like the Moon, will pass directly between the Sun and Earth just like it does regularly, with high predictability. To me, if his ideas have any merit this might be a better time to predict an earthquake since all this is falling into alignment anyway. The Moon will be passing over Texas and then on up the hill to good ol' New Madrid, Misery, site of one of the most destructive quakes to ever hit North America. It will darken their day for a full two minutes as it passes. With the Moon close by and Mercury's phat mass between us and the Sun while Venus swings to the backside, all we need is a nice coronal mass ejection to provide the electromagnetic pulse needed to kick start the shaker. Remember though that this method of earthquake prediction doesn't work any better than a rolling, random guess that gets an update every time the previous time window passes without anything of note happening. No one, in my opinion, will predict earthquakes using planetary alignments and end up being right often enough for it to be attributed to skill as opposed to pure shithouse luck. Even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in a while applies here to this method all year long, every year. Notice that his latest update after the Taiwan quake [6] suggests the possibility of magnitude 6-7 quakes in a few days, but those days don't include eclipse day even though the chart on that same page highlights eclipse day alignments. For some unknowable reason though the chart doesn't mention Mercury in the April 8th alignment group. Probably an oversight or maybe he just lost it in the glare of the Sun. [7] [6] https://postimg.cc/9whCS4DL https://postimg.cc/9whCS4DL [7] https://postimg.cc/zHCKZR0v https://postimg.cc/zHCKZR0v Anyway, while I was here and dinking with it anyway I noticed that we were gonna get a much better mass alignment in a few weeks that might be an even better place to predict something so I thought I would "test" my own skills by winding the clock till I made a nice alignment in the skies. I tried to put all the inner planets as close as possible to a kinda straight line and make the moon be close to centered over the Ring of Fire so that region would feel the strongest tidal forces during this alignment and maybe something would shake loose. This is what I came up with. [8] This date has Earth, Mercury, the Sun, and Venus roughly in a kinda-sorta line while Mars and Saturn line up on the hypotenuse of a really long triangle. Jupiter is still on third base and I know where Uranus is too in case you still haven't found it. [8] https://postimg.cc/hJ80R6vc https://postimg.cc/hJ80R6vc Please don't take anything that I have predicted seriously folks. I am not a seismologist. I am a geophysicist and believe it or not, that doesn't automatically mean I am qualified or competent enough to make predictions about anything. Personally, this is all bullshit of the finest quality. I wonder why I have wasted so much of my life assembling this tonight. I should've been sleeping. Since one of his most prominent hedges is the electromagnetic hedge (according to his report it isn't alignments that trigger these quakes, it is electromagnetic energy). He states that we can't measure that electromagnetic energy and this is why it is so hard to predict even knowing all about these alignments. Of course he is ignoring that we have had satellites measuring coronal activity for decades and there are numerous sites on land where we track solar emissions and monitor auroras. Just visit Spaceweather.com or Spaceweatherlive.com and you can get your fill of useful data about solar activity that could trigger the atmospheric events that he needs for his predictions to work. Looking back over the period of his prediction there was a geomagnetic storm anticipated in the days following a March 30 sunspot eruption but that storm watch was cancelled. The current watch suggests a disturbance around April 4 which likely will only affect the polar latitudes if it happens. [9] [9] https://postimg.cc/gallery/mP2hcHD https://postimg.cc/gallery/mP2hcHD Anyway. I can't help but conclude that anyone making predictions, myself included, using the methods that this guy claims to employ probably is the blind squirrel finding the nut when one of those predictions gets close to a real event.

by spxneo 3y ago

this guy is right again at predicting these earth quakes: https://twitter.com/ssgeos/status/1775146068079960148 https://twitter.com/ssgeos/status/1775146068079960148

komali2 3y ago

Would love to see the deleted predictions lol

spxneo 3y ago
he's been doing this for years with youtube videos accompanying his tweets i dont think hes here to sell anything

dylan604 3y ago

this is the first time i've ever seen this person. how is he received in non youtube audiences? is this fringe level stuff, or is this accepted science? i have a hard time wrapping my head around a planetary alignment with Neptune affecting Earth. I'm not dismissing it, but my knee jerk is this can't be real, yeah?

spxneo 3y ago
his track record indicates this is not a random reinforcement but something worth looking into. I also didn't know what this planetary alignment is but there have been papers around it.
- doodlebugging 3y ago
  When I was a kid some of my neighbor's trees occasionally had papers around them too. Might even have been the same kind of paper.
- isthatafact 3y ago
  Without independent statistical analysis, he has no "track record".
jcranmer 3y ago
All earthquake prediction is fringe science. (FWIW, predicting a M6+ earthquake isn't that hard--an M6+ earthquake happens on Earth about every 3 days.)

jcranmer 3y ago

Looking at his feed, his big prediction was for a M7 earthquake around 3/30, so his prediction is actually 3 days off. Before that, he was looking at a M8 earthquake around 3/13. And before that, strong tremors around the end of 10/23/2023, seeming later updated to more like 10/25/2023 or 10/28/2023. None of this panned out. In general, I'm seeing a lot of misses and no real hits.

spxneo 3y ago
so he's off by a few days? did you go back to his past predictions that also came true last year and the year before? he's better than any predictive processes we had so far
- jcranmer 3y ago
  His prediction is wrong. He buttonholed it to a few specific days, and missed that window. As for prior predictions, I went back 6 months. None of his predictions panned out. Although, admittedly, it's a bit difficult for me to figure out what actually constitutes a prediction since most of them tend to be the kind of vague generality that's hard to grade: "The Mars-Mercury-Jupiter conjunction on 22 September can result in a strong shake later on 23 or 24 September."--what's a "strong shake"? "Stronger seismic activity is likely to occur in the coming days"? These are the kinds of predictions that are worded vaguely enough to be dismissed if they don't come true, and can be highlighted as a miracle of prediction if something does happen. (I haven't even attempted to grade location because I can't even tell what's supposed to be suggested as possible locations. As noted elsewhere, even guessing that a M6+ earthquake is likely in the next few days isn't a difficult guess, because they'll occur more or less weekly: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/m6-world.php?year=2023 https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/m6-world.php?...).
  - spxneo 3y ago
    you went only back 6 months and he was off by a few days was to conclude your own bias to begin with...

a_random_canuck 3y ago

[flagged]

alliao 3y ago

https://twitter.com/rrichcord https://twitter.com/rrichcord reminds me of this guy

doodlebugging 3y ago

Alright. I'm a bit of a geophysicist (oil industry though, not seismology) so I figured I would take a look at this to see whether it holds up to any serious scrutiny. I'm also a huge sceptic and a cynic, only moderately prone to sarcasm but I'm gonna do my best here. It took a bit of work to dig thru the claims he makes. His claims involve planetary alignments serving as a trigger for earthquake activity so that a careful monitoring of those alignments could potentially be useful as a prediction tool. Venus especially when she falls into alignment with outer planets [0], seems to play a large role according to his work.[1] [0] https://ssgeos.org/articles/planetary-conjunctions-major-earthquakes.htm https://ssgeos.org/articles/planetary-conjunctions-major-ear... [1] https://ssgeos.org/articles/venus-and-major-earthquakes.htm https://ssgeos.org/articles/venus-and-major-earthquakes.htm It's interesting that he doesn't blame it all on an alignment of the masses of the planets (gravitational trigger) as much as he blames it on electromagnetic forces which he says are stronger and affect the atmosphere during the conjunction. Alrightee. The twitter post and the youtube video one shouldn't need to waste their time watching are available in the parent comment and in those videos you can find a general prediction. His predictions tend to be slippery. I understand why. The reason is that you need a lot of wiggle room for an earthquake prediction because you will be wrong a lot more than you will ever be close to being right. The key is to flood the market with plausible predictions that statistically have an elevated likelihood of becoming close enough to gain more eyeballs. The twitter/youtube prediction of note can be found in the nice red box which SnagIt has helped me grab for your edification. [2] It says there will be a series of right angles (conjunctions in his way of looking at the universe) that will set up opportunities for "major seismic activity, potentially peaking mid 7 magnitude around the 30th". [2] https://postimg.cc/hhCgfdFR https://postimg.cc/hhCgfdFR In fact, he updates his predictions as conditions change as you can see in his March 30 update where he gives a 60% likelihood of a 7.0-7.4 quake occurring. [3] Standard procedure is to update when your prediction date passes since by reason and statistics, that means that you're another day closer to it finally coming true. Betting on the inevitable always works if you can spin the calendar far enough ahead without running out of pages. [3] https://postimg.cc/QF3gBL8W https://postimg.cc/QF3gBL8W In earthquake prediction we have to let close be good enough so obviously this is a winner. Just kidding. I decided to take a look at the solar system to see if I could see what he thought he hoped he was seeing. It took me more than one try to find an app that would allow me to unwind the clock back to his setup dates so that I could figure whether any of it made sense. I found an app called Solar System Scope [4] that allowed me to wind the clock back and forth to watch how it all shakes out up there in the sky and so I SnagIted some screenshots to bracket the relevant days for analysis. I used his prediction to set the bounds as March 27th to April 2nd. Since the quake happened 3 days after his target date I used the 27th as the start and his target as the center date. I hope that makes sense. The next SnagIts show the planetary positions for those three dates and I gave it a good country try to set the time of the SnagIt to the time of the earthquake on each date. [4] https://postimg.cc/gallery/W36Gxh4 https://postimg.cc/gallery/W36Gxh4 You can see in the Snags that the inner planets Mercury and Venus are rolling around the Sun getting closer to an actual alignment each day that passes and Mars is headed toward that a similar geometry though it is well out of line during those dates. The nearest outer planets Saturn and Jupiter are well out of alignment while Neptune, way the hell out in center field will almost be aligned though it's relative motion will not matter much over such a short time period. Poor Pluto is out of sight to the right and I found Uranus way out in left field in case you still can't find it. Just trying to help. The most interesting part of this is that all planets except Mercury will be on the far side of the Sun for a few weeks. Mercury, as you can see, will be swinging around the front of the Sun such that by the time we have the total eclipse next week he will be visible to those who have appropriate eye protection in front of the Sun as the Moon eclipses the Sun on the 8th. I SnagIted a shot of that for anyone interested. [5] [5] https://postimg.cc/vDDK0ytF https://postimg.cc/vDDK0ytF Unfortunately I did not get that shot from the exact same perspective as the others since I managed to click somewhere inside that active window and the whole shitteroo shifted on me. I think a reasonable observer can get the idea though that everything is swinging into alignment over the next few weeks and Mercury, like the Moon, will pass directly between the Sun and Earth just like it does regularly, with high predictability. To me, if his ideas have any merit this might be a better time to predict an earthquake since all this is falling into alignment anyway. The Moon will be passing over Texas and then on up the hill to good ol' New Madrid, Misery, site of one of the most destructive quakes to ever hit North America. It will darken their day for a full two minutes as it passes. With the Moon close by and Mercury's phat mass between us and the Sun while Venus swings to the backside, all we need is a nice coronal mass ejection to provide the electromagnetic pulse needed to kick start the shaker. Remember though that this method of earthquake prediction doesn't work any better than a rolling, random guess that gets an update every time the previous time window passes without anything of note happening. No one, in my opinion, will predict earthquakes using planetary alignments and end up being right often enough for it to be attributed to skill as opposed to pure shithouse luck. Even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in a while applies here to this method all year long, every year. Notice that his latest update after the Taiwan quake [6] suggests the possibility of magnitude 6-7 quakes in a few days, but those days don't include eclipse day even though the chart on that same page highlights eclipse day alignments. For some unknowable reason though the chart doesn't mention Mercury in the April 8th alignment group. Probably an oversight or maybe he just lost it in the glare of the Sun. [7] [6] https://postimg.cc/9whCS4DL https://postimg.cc/9whCS4DL [7] https://postimg.cc/zHCKZR0v https://postimg.cc/zHCKZR0v Anyway, while I was here and dinking with it anyway I noticed that we were gonna get a much better mass alignment in a few weeks that might be an even better place to predict something so I thought I would "test" my own skills by winding the clock till I made a nice alignment in the skies. I tried to put all the inner planets as close as possible to a kinda straight line and make the moon be close to centered over the Ring of Fire so that region would feel the strongest tidal forces during this alignment and maybe something would shake loose. This is what I came up with. [8] This date has Earth, Mercury, the Sun, and Venus roughly in a kinda-sorta line while Mars and Saturn line up on the hypotenuse of a really long triangle. Jupiter is still on third base and I know where Uranus is too in case you still haven't found it. [8] https://postimg.cc/hJ80R6vc https://postimg.cc/hJ80R6vc Please don't take anything that I have predicted seriously folks. I am not a seismologist. I am a geophysicist and believe it or not, that doesn't automatically mean I am qualified or competent enough to make predictions about anything. Personally, this is all bullshit of the finest quality. I wonder why I have wasted so much of my life assembling this tonight. I should've been sleeping. Since one of his most prominent hedges is the electromagnetic hedge (according to his report it isn't alignments that trigger these quakes, it is electromagnetic energy). He states that we can't measure that electromagnetic energy and this is why it is so hard to predict even knowing all about these alignments. Of course he is ignoring that we have had satellites measuring coronal activity for decades and there are numerous sites on land where we track solar emissions and monitor auroras. Just visit Spaceweather.com or Spaceweatherlive.com and you can get your fill of useful data about solar activity that could trigger the atmospheric events that he needs for his predictions to work. Looking back over the period of his prediction there was a geomagnetic storm anticipated in the days following a March 30 sunspot eruption but that storm watch was cancelled. The current watch suggests a disturbance around April 4 which likely will only affect the polar latitudes if it happens. [9] [9] https://postimg.cc/gallery/mP2hcHD https://postimg.cc/gallery/mP2hcHD Anyway. I can't help but conclude that anyone making predictions, myself included, using the methods that this guy claims to employ probably is the blind squirrel finding the nut when one of those predictions gets close to a real event.