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Waymo can get there, it’s tightening screws at Waymo. But it’s the exception that proves the rule: no one else ever gets there on today’s model. You’re basicall

Waymo can get there, it’s tightening screws at Waymo. But it’s the exception that proves the rule: no one else ever gets there on today’s model. You’re basically right across the board. Cruise gets written down, Tesla still makes cars but you have to drive them, yeah…I think that covers everyone else.

skywhopper 3y ago
I wouldn't be so sure. Even if it worked 100%, I don't see a way that Waymo could ever be profitable enough to justify the investment. There just isn't enough margin. Alphabet can afford to subsidize it indefinitely but it's not going to become a moneymaker for anyone. In fact, as you point out, their serious competition is basically out of the game now. I expect within the next five years, Google will spin it off and call it a win, and Waymo itself will peter out a few years later.
- benreesman 3y ago
  That's fair, in a game as crazy hard and complicated as self-driving, I shouldn't have implied it's a lock, I don't think anything is a lock when that much cutting-edge technology, complicated institutional incentives, regulators, and a topic guaranteed to interest the public all come together. I meant to say "I've ridden in Waymo vehicles, a number of times, in non-trivial situations, and it was flawless, so while I'm sure there's a long tail of crazy hard scenarios, it can drive you to and from a restaurant in heavy traffic that involves getting on something that sure looked big enough to be a freeway, getting back off it without trouble, and parking better than any human I know". How much they spent to get there, and if they're ever seeing that back? I wouldn't know where to begin estimating that. I'm basically sure from first-hand experience that Waymo can do the vast majority of the driving I've ever needed. Maybe it can't cope with insane weather or something, but most people can't really either. Do the economics ultimately make sense? Dunno.

skywhopper 3y ago

I wouldn't be so sure. Even if it worked 100%, I don't see a way that Waymo could ever be profitable enough to justify the investment. There just isn't enough margin. Alphabet can afford to subsidize it indefinitely but it's not going to become a moneymaker for anyone. In fact, as you point out, their serious competition is basically out of the game now. I expect within the next five years, Google will spin it off and call it a win, and Waymo itself will peter out a few years later.

benreesman 3y ago
That's fair, in a game as crazy hard and complicated as self-driving, I shouldn't have implied it's a lock, I don't think anything is a lock when that much cutting-edge technology, complicated institutional incentives, regulators, and a topic guaranteed to interest the public all come together. I meant to say "I've ridden in Waymo vehicles, a number of times, in non-trivial situations, and it was flawless, so while I'm sure there's a long tail of crazy hard scenarios, it can drive you to and from a restaurant in heavy traffic that involves getting on something that sure looked big enough to be a freeway, getting back off it without trouble, and parking better than any human I know". How much they spent to get there, and if they're ever seeing that back? I wouldn't know where to begin estimating that. I'm basically sure from first-hand experience that Waymo can do the vast majority of the driving I've ever needed. Maybe it can't cope with insane weather or something, but most people can't really either. Do the economics ultimately make sense? Dunno.