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Its probably an indicator of the EV market as a whole reaching a saturation point with current tech. Anybody who wants an EV and can afford 45K+ already have o

Its probably an indicator of the EV market as a whole reaching a saturation point with current tech. Anybody who wants an EV and can afford 45K+ already have one. The rest are either waiting for the next jump in battery tech from the current 250-300 mile max range, a price drop or living in an apartment. Ultimately, EVs will win out due to their simpler architecture and general convenience but its likely 10 years out.

wazoox 3y ago
Also in Europe competition is ramping up. Tesla has been complacent and is now falling behind. For instance BMW, Renault and Mercedes all have much better "self-driving" than Tesla (capacitive steering wheel, efficient automatic overtaking, no phantom braking, 360° cameras, fully automatic parking that actually works, etc), and there are good, much cheaper models such as the Cupra Born or the MG 4.
acdha 3y ago
I think it’s a lot less than 10 years out - EVs being pricey has some connection to the technology but mostly due to the manufacturers choosing to focus on high-end luxury vehicles trying to maintain the much higher SUV/truck-level profit margins they’ve been enjoying rather than dropping down to traditional sedan levels. There is a fair chunk of people who don’t have easy access for charging and a smaller group who really need greater than 200 mile ranges, but there’s still a ton of ICE sales to people who don’t have those problems (especially suburban 2 car households where even 100 mile range is overkill for taking the kids to school on the way to work and overnight garage charging works fine) but they’re looking for a $20-30k car rather than a $40-70k luxury truck. It’s not a coincidence that GM is easily selling every Bolt they made and the Mach-E started moving after lowering the markup - people aren’t willing to overpay so much when interest rates are twice what they’ve been for over a decade: https://www.statista.com/statistics/290673/auto-loan-rates-usa/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/290673/auto-loan-rates-u... The thing which has me bullish on EVs is that the rest of the world isn’t so skewed towards massive vehicles and their corresponding markups. Some of those models are going to be offered here, too, and it looks like BYD is going to be moving in slowly, which will mask pressure on the established companies to offer affordable options.

wazoox 3y ago

Also in Europe competition is ramping up. Tesla has been complacent and is now falling behind. For instance BMW, Renault and Mercedes all have much better "self-driving" than Tesla (capacitive steering wheel, efficient automatic overtaking, no phantom braking, 360° cameras, fully automatic parking that actually works, etc), and there are good, much cheaper models such as the Cupra Born or the MG 4.

acdha 3y ago

I think it’s a lot less than 10 years out - EVs being pricey has some connection to the technology but mostly due to the manufacturers choosing to focus on high-end luxury vehicles trying to maintain the much higher SUV/truck-level profit margins they’ve been enjoying rather than dropping down to traditional sedan levels. There is a fair chunk of people who don’t have easy access for charging and a smaller group who really need greater than 200 mile ranges, but there’s still a ton of ICE sales to people who don’t have those problems (especially suburban 2 car households where even 100 mile range is overkill for taking the kids to school on the way to work and overnight garage charging works fine) but they’re looking for a $20-30k car rather than a $40-70k luxury truck. It’s not a coincidence that GM is easily selling every Bolt they made and the Mach-E started moving after lowering the markup - people aren’t willing to overpay so much when interest rates are twice what they’ve been for over a decade: https://www.statista.com/statistics/290673/auto-loan-rates-usa/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/290673/auto-loan-rates-u... The thing which has me bullish on EVs is that the rest of the world isn’t so skewed towards massive vehicles and their corresponding markups. Some of those models are going to be offered here, too, and it looks like BYD is going to be moving in slowly, which will mask pressure on the established companies to offer affordable options.