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Electric Cars Pass the Tipping Point to Mass Adoption in 31 Countries

tomcar288 3y ago
I have no doubt that EVs will be a big part of the future couple of decades but at some point there's not going to be enough lithium and other rare earth minerals around and that's going to drive prices up.
- Rygian 3y ago
  Contrary to fuel, you can reuse/recycle lithium. Rare earths are less of a requirement than they were 5 years ago and the trend should keep that way.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
Arnt 3y ago
https://archive.is/Nfzrv https://archive.is/Nfzrv Key quote: "When we first completed this analysis in 2022, only 19 countries had passed the 5% tipping point. Last year, that number soared as EVs spread across four continents. For the first time, some of the fastest-growing markets were found in Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia. The trajectory laid out by countries that came before them shows how EVs can surge from 5% to 25% of new cars in under four years."
- hulitu 3y ago
  > For the first time, some of the fastest-growing markets were found in Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia. So they are looking at new car sales. A lot of people in Eastern Europe do not afford a new car, let alone an electric one.
sofixa 3y ago
I wonder what the reasoning behind this is: > what’s become a pivotal EV tipping point: when 5% of new car sales are purely electric 5% of new car sales being EVs doesn't mean much. There will be more traction for charging infrastructure and such, but that doesn't mean that more consumers will be interested in EVs, or that economic downturn won't result in people resorting to second-hand cars which are probably going to be ICEs. I'm not convinced by the arguments: > New technologies — from televisions to smartwatches — follow an S-shaped adoption curve > “Once enough sales occur, you kind of have a virtuous cycle,” said Corey Cantor, an EV analyst at BloombergNEF. “More EVs popping up means more people seeing them as mainstream, automakers more willing to invest in the market, and the charging infrastructure expanding on a good trajectory.” Especially with a product that is already seen as political by some, and has clear drawbacks that make it unviable for many types of users.
- audunw 3y ago
  I don’t think the political factor is as big as you’d think. Norway is an oil country and has a really high share of climate skeptics. Yet EVs are selling very well. I think most people will drop their political objections to EVs the moment they find them practical and/or economical. All it takes is a few friends that have them and take you for a ride. Clear drawbacks? Absolutely, but that goes for many technologies that follow an S curve (logistics curve) Cell phones was bulky and expensive to start with and until surprisingly recently the audio quality was awful. I’m not entirely convinced of the “second-hand car” factor if there’s a downturn. There’s only so many second hand cars. Eventually they break down to the point that it’s not worth maintaining to maintain them. Having cars at all means there needs to be a stream of new cars coming into the market. The economic factor could easily go in favour of EVs very soon. A small electric car built from the ground up to be as cheap as possible could soon compete with ICE on purchase price. Like a Tesla Model 2 with 48V architecture and LFP batteries, and similar models from other car makers. The main reason we haven’t seen these models yet is that there isn’t enough battery manufacturing capacity in the world to satisfy the demand such a model would generate. But the shovel is in the ground for these factories right now. If you look at the list of battery factories being built for the automotive sector it’s insane. “Gigafactory” was a mind-blowing concept when Tesla first built their GWh scale battery factory just a few years ago. Now there’s countless GWh-scale factories being planned and built all over the world.

I have no doubt that EVs will be a big part of the future couple of decades but at some point there's not going to be enough lithium and other rare earth minerals around and that's going to drive prices up.

Rygian 3y ago
Contrary to fuel, you can reuse/recycle lithium. Rare earths are less of a requirement than they were 5 years ago and the trend should keep that way.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

Arnt 3y ago

https://archive.is/Nfzrv https://archive.is/Nfzrv Key quote: "When we first completed this analysis in 2022, only 19 countries had passed the 5% tipping point. Last year, that number soared as EVs spread across four continents. For the first time, some of the fastest-growing markets were found in Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia. The trajectory laid out by countries that came before them shows how EVs can surge from 5% to 25% of new cars in under four years."

hulitu 3y ago
> For the first time, some of the fastest-growing markets were found in Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia. So they are looking at new car sales. A lot of people in Eastern Europe do not afford a new car, let alone an electric one.

sofixa 3y ago

I wonder what the reasoning behind this is: > what’s become a pivotal EV tipping point: when 5% of new car sales are purely electric 5% of new car sales being EVs doesn't mean much. There will be more traction for charging infrastructure and such, but that doesn't mean that more consumers will be interested in EVs, or that economic downturn won't result in people resorting to second-hand cars which are probably going to be ICEs. I'm not convinced by the arguments: > New technologies — from televisions to smartwatches — follow an S-shaped adoption curve > “Once enough sales occur, you kind of have a virtuous cycle,” said Corey Cantor, an EV analyst at BloombergNEF. “More EVs popping up means more people seeing them as mainstream, automakers more willing to invest in the market, and the charging infrastructure expanding on a good trajectory.” Especially with a product that is already seen as political by some, and has clear drawbacks that make it unviable for many types of users.

audunw 3y ago
I don’t think the political factor is as big as you’d think. Norway is an oil country and has a really high share of climate skeptics. Yet EVs are selling very well. I think most people will drop their political objections to EVs the moment they find them practical and/or economical. All it takes is a few friends that have them and take you for a ride. Clear drawbacks? Absolutely, but that goes for many technologies that follow an S curve (logistics curve) Cell phones was bulky and expensive to start with and until surprisingly recently the audio quality was awful. I’m not entirely convinced of the “second-hand car” factor if there’s a downturn. There’s only so many second hand cars. Eventually they break down to the point that it’s not worth maintaining to maintain them. Having cars at all means there needs to be a stream of new cars coming into the market. The economic factor could easily go in favour of EVs very soon. A small electric car built from the ground up to be as cheap as possible could soon compete with ICE on purchase price. Like a Tesla Model 2 with 48V architecture and LFP batteries, and similar models from other car makers. The main reason we haven’t seen these models yet is that there isn’t enough battery manufacturing capacity in the world to satisfy the demand such a model would generate. But the shovel is in the ground for these factories right now. If you look at the list of battery factories being built for the automotive sector it’s insane. “Gigafactory” was a mind-blowing concept when Tesla first built their GWh scale battery factory just a few years ago. Now there’s countless GWh-scale factories being planned and built all over the world.