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Are Tesla sales levelling off? I'm not convinced that electric cars are going to be mainstream, apart at the high end, for a few decades.

dragontamer 3y ago
> Are Tesla sales levelling off? No. Tesla sales are dropping. This is worse than "leveling off". EDIT: Tesla hasn't had sales this low in a quarter since 2022.
sp332 3y ago
It's already around 20% of all cars sold globally last year. And prices are still dropping. https://thedriven.io/2024/01/25/worlds-largest-ev-battery-maker-set-to-cut-costs-in-half-by-mid-2024/ https://thedriven.io/2024/01/25/worlds-largest-ev-battery-ma...
- JKCalhoun 3y ago
  Dropping prices are what are going to move EVs IMHO. On paper they are so much simpler than ICE vehicles they should be a fraction of the cost. My understanding is that the battery is the expensive component — and I understand the prices of those keep coming down.
  - dragontamer 3y ago
    > On paper they are so much simpler than ICE vehicles they should be a fraction of the cost. Except for the $20,000 battery in each of these Tesla vehicles. That battery pack is basically the cost of a Chevy TRAX. And the battery is that expensive because its a complicated mess of chemicals: Lithium, Nickle, Cobalt... with complex battery-management systems (op-amps, transistors, MOSFETs) that can handle 800V and 250+ Amps of current, in a load-balanced way in both power and charging directions... designed for longetivity and safety. Come on, its not actually that simple. The 15-gears that make up the Toyota Prius Power Split Device (serving as Transmission, Generator, and Starter) is obviously simpler in both chemical composition, sourcing (only uses Steel), and assembly. ----------- And building a 13kW-hr battery pack at 200lbs with a fraction of the power, and smaller electric motors at 110 hp out of cheap magnets (instead of Tesla's rare-earth magnets pushing 600+ horsepower or whatever) is also more environmentally friendly. A lot of the problems with Tesla vehicles are self-imposed. They aim at absurdly high horsepower for not really much benefit to the typical everyday driver.
asadotzler 3y ago
In one decade it will be illegal to sell an ICE car in California (and about 20 other states) and Canada. Your prediction is silly.
- matthewfelgate 3y ago
  In my opinion governments are likely to change those deadlines as they approach.

dragontamer 3y ago

> Are Tesla sales levelling off? No. Tesla sales are dropping. This is worse than "leveling off". EDIT: Tesla hasn't had sales this low in a quarter since 2022.

sp332 3y ago

It's already around 20% of all cars sold globally last year. And prices are still dropping. https://thedriven.io/2024/01/25/worlds-largest-ev-battery-maker-set-to-cut-costs-in-half-by-mid-2024/ https://thedriven.io/2024/01/25/worlds-largest-ev-battery-ma...

JKCalhoun 3y ago
Dropping prices are what are going to move EVs IMHO. On paper they are so much simpler than ICE vehicles they should be a fraction of the cost. My understanding is that the battery is the expensive component — and I understand the prices of those keep coming down.
- dragontamer 3y ago
  > On paper they are so much simpler than ICE vehicles they should be a fraction of the cost. Except for the $20,000 battery in each of these Tesla vehicles. That battery pack is basically the cost of a Chevy TRAX. And the battery is that expensive because its a complicated mess of chemicals: Lithium, Nickle, Cobalt... with complex battery-management systems (op-amps, transistors, MOSFETs) that can handle 800V and 250+ Amps of current, in a load-balanced way in both power and charging directions... designed for longetivity and safety. Come on, its not actually that simple. The 15-gears that make up the Toyota Prius Power Split Device (serving as Transmission, Generator, and Starter) is obviously simpler in both chemical composition, sourcing (only uses Steel), and assembly. ----------- And building a 13kW-hr battery pack at 200lbs with a fraction of the power, and smaller electric motors at 110 hp out of cheap magnets (instead of Tesla's rare-earth magnets pushing 600+ horsepower or whatever) is also more environmentally friendly. A lot of the problems with Tesla vehicles are self-imposed. They aim at absurdly high horsepower for not really much benefit to the typical everyday driver.

asadotzler 3y ago

In one decade it will be illegal to sell an ICE car in California (and about 20 other states) and Canada. Your prediction is silly.

matthewfelgate 3y ago
In my opinion governments are likely to change those deadlines as they approach.