4 ms·

World Population to fall for first time since the Black Death

15 points by walterbell 3y ago

defrost 3y ago
. . . in * 2100 * There's a bit of fuzz in the numbers but the peak is still 70+ years away, then a decline and a stabilisation. World population projected to reach 9.8 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion in 2100 https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-projected-reach-98-billion-2050-and-112-billion-2100 https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-projected-reach-... The UN Population Division has calculated the future population of the world's countries, based on current demographic trends. In 2022, world population reached 8 billion. The UN's 2022 report projects world population to be 9.7 billion people in 2050, and about 10.3 billion by 2100. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow...
- dustedcodes 3y ago
  > World population projected to reach 9.8 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion in 2100 This to me always stands out as the main reason why house prices in desirable areas across the world (eg. London, Australia, Singapore, etc.) won’t drop any time soon. Quite the opposite, they will continue to go up steeply for another few decades. Today we’re 8 billion people, add another 50% of today’s population on top of what we already have, in less than the next 80 years, whilst habitable areas decrease due to climate change, and we’re in a perfect scenario where sharp population growth will simply outpace any building efforts we could achieve with the current workforce we have.
  - 082349872349872 3y ago
    > any building efforts we could achieve Maybe not any building efforts we want to achieve, but there are certainly approaches within the possible envelope, eg something like arrays of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khrushchevka https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khrushchevka with mod-cons. (I am continually amazed that the Eichler developments in the Bay Area, which were once considered the epitome of "ticky tacky", are now cool, just because they're no longer the cheap & cheery affordable thing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Eichler#Santa_Clara_County https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Eichler#Santa_Clara_Cou... )
  - defrost 3y ago
    > simply outpace any building efforts we could achieve with the current workforce we have. Trades are learnable skills, my father built two of his houses (one after the other), I've built a house of my own, worked on a sheep shearing robot and contributed to brick laying robots: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBhcm-kRA68 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBhcm-kRA68 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s17IAj-XpU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s17IAj-XpU Modern building efforts include lots of prefab and the ability to push up structures fast - pressures in the west that depress housing construction go far deeper than an inability to build; there are financial and zoning factors at play. Talk to residents of many SE Asian countries, eg: Tokyo and elsewhere and work out how they can build enough to house higher and denser populations whereas "the West" struggles.
    - dustedcodes 3y ago
      > Talk to residents of many SE Asian countries, eg: Tokyo and elsewhere and work out how they can build enough to house higher and denser populations whereas "the West" struggles Last time I checked was before the pandemic, but from what I remember in Tokyo most flats and housing is way out of the league of normal people and if you are wealthy enough to get on the housing ladder then it’s a tiny flat literally the size of a shipping container where you have to fold your bed away to turn it into a dining table because you’re squeezed into a tiny space like a chicken in a battery and for that “luxury” you’ll have to pay off debt for the best part of your life. Kind of proves my point, no?
      - defrost 3y ago
        When you have that many people in cities you need either nigh on unlimited surburbia and magical public transport OR a willingness to live in a compact space. Western housing crisis results from an unwillingness to mostly have dense cities and sensible suburbs with dense multi family blocks interspersed with common parklands. We can't all have a McMansion with indoor shooting range and swimming pool.
        dustedcodes 3y ago
  - scotty79 3y ago
    House prices have very little to do with how many people need housing. Their price is almost entirely defined by the apetites of the rich for the investment vessel. China currently could house 3 times larger population than they actually have.
  - mikhailfranco 3y ago
    You contradict yourself. If you believe in climate change raising sea levels, then property in (half of) London and (most of) Singapore will be literally and financially underwater.
- 082349872349872 3y ago
  Sigmoids are notoriously difficult to predict, so I think it safe to leave the factoid that that date coincidentally correlates nicely with the next precession of the equinoxes, into the Age of Aquarius ;)
  - defrost 3y ago
    Hmm, you say that but I'm repeated assured by a vocal faction here on HN that human population numbers are about to plummet in an abyss of no return unless we immediately breed more and faster than ever.
    - 082349872349872 3y ago
      Körner, The Pleasures of Counting (1996) > † Social Darwinism applies the Darwinian doctrine of the survival of the fittest to human society. Rich social Darwinists take wealth as the best indication of fitness to survive, academic social Darwinists take intellectual achievements as the best indication and so on. They are often haunted by the fear that the unfit do not understand this and may outbreed the fit. (aside: sheep shearing robots? you wouldn't be kiwi by any chance?)
      - defrost 3y ago
        Kiwi? They're not the only only country with sheep, cliff edges and Wellington boots you know . . . See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZAh2zv7TMM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZAh2zv7TMM James T, Peter K, Robyn O. et al design and proto build early 1980s, second and mid gen versions mid 80s to early 1990s. Funding suspended as computer vision was being added. Tangentially, (years later, next university across in same city): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39902710 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39902710 > the Darwinian doctrine of the survival of the fittest That was Spencer; regrettably both Darwin and Wallace jumped on that proto Nazi dog whistle band wagon.
        082349872349872 3y ago
        Sorry for the inadvertent slur, mate! Funding suspended after the geneticists bred cattle (Australian Miniline) with small enough hind legs?
gndk 3y ago
Good, earth is full.

15 points by walterbell 3y ago

. . . in * 2100 * There's a bit of fuzz in the numbers but the peak is still 70+ years away, then a decline and a stabilisation. World population projected to reach 9.8 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion in 2100 https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-projected-reach-98-billion-2050-and-112-billion-2100 https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-projected-reach-... The UN Population Division has calculated the future population of the world's countries, based on current demographic trends. In 2022, world population reached 8 billion. The UN's 2022 report projects world population to be 9.7 billion people in 2050, and about 10.3 billion by 2100. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow...

dustedcodes 3y ago
> World population projected to reach 9.8 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion in 2100 This to me always stands out as the main reason why house prices in desirable areas across the world (eg. London, Australia, Singapore, etc.) won’t drop any time soon. Quite the opposite, they will continue to go up steeply for another few decades. Today we’re 8 billion people, add another 50% of today’s population on top of what we already have, in less than the next 80 years, whilst habitable areas decrease due to climate change, and we’re in a perfect scenario where sharp population growth will simply outpace any building efforts we could achieve with the current workforce we have.
- 082349872349872 3y ago
  > any building efforts we could achieve Maybe not any building efforts we want to achieve, but there are certainly approaches within the possible envelope, eg something like arrays of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khrushchevka https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khrushchevka with mod-cons. (I am continually amazed that the Eichler developments in the Bay Area, which were once considered the epitome of "ticky tacky", are now cool, just because they're no longer the cheap & cheery affordable thing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Eichler#Santa_Clara_County https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Eichler#Santa_Clara_Cou... )
- defrost 3y ago
  > simply outpace any building efforts we could achieve with the current workforce we have. Trades are learnable skills, my father built two of his houses (one after the other), I've built a house of my own, worked on a sheep shearing robot and contributed to brick laying robots: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBhcm-kRA68 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBhcm-kRA68 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s17IAj-XpU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s17IAj-XpU Modern building efforts include lots of prefab and the ability to push up structures fast - pressures in the west that depress housing construction go far deeper than an inability to build; there are financial and zoning factors at play. Talk to residents of many SE Asian countries, eg: Tokyo and elsewhere and work out how they can build enough to house higher and denser populations whereas "the West" struggles.
  - dustedcodes 3y ago
    > Talk to residents of many SE Asian countries, eg: Tokyo and elsewhere and work out how they can build enough to house higher and denser populations whereas "the West" struggles Last time I checked was before the pandemic, but from what I remember in Tokyo most flats and housing is way out of the league of normal people and if you are wealthy enough to get on the housing ladder then it’s a tiny flat literally the size of a shipping container where you have to fold your bed away to turn it into a dining table because you’re squeezed into a tiny space like a chicken in a battery and for that “luxury” you’ll have to pay off debt for the best part of your life. Kind of proves my point, no?
    - defrost 3y ago
      When you have that many people in cities you need either nigh on unlimited surburbia and magical public transport OR a willingness to live in a compact space. Western housing crisis results from an unwillingness to mostly have dense cities and sensible suburbs with dense multi family blocks interspersed with common parklands. We can't all have a McMansion with indoor shooting range and swimming pool.
      - dustedcodes 3y ago
- scotty79 3y ago
  House prices have very little to do with how many people need housing. Their price is almost entirely defined by the apetites of the rich for the investment vessel. China currently could house 3 times larger population than they actually have.
- mikhailfranco 3y ago
  You contradict yourself. If you believe in climate change raising sea levels, then property in (half of) London and (most of) Singapore will be literally and financially underwater.
082349872349872 3y ago
Sigmoids are notoriously difficult to predict, so I think it safe to leave the factoid that that date coincidentally correlates nicely with the next precession of the equinoxes, into the Age of Aquarius ;)
- defrost 3y ago
  Hmm, you say that but I'm repeated assured by a vocal faction here on HN that human population numbers are about to plummet in an abyss of no return unless we immediately breed more and faster than ever.
  - 082349872349872 3y ago
    Körner, The Pleasures of Counting (1996) > † Social Darwinism applies the Darwinian doctrine of the survival of the fittest to human society. Rich social Darwinists take wealth as the best indication of fitness to survive, academic social Darwinists take intellectual achievements as the best indication and so on. They are often haunted by the fear that the unfit do not understand this and may outbreed the fit. (aside: sheep shearing robots? you wouldn't be kiwi by any chance?)
    - defrost 3y ago
      Kiwi? They're not the only only country with sheep, cliff edges and Wellington boots you know . . . See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZAh2zv7TMM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZAh2zv7TMM James T, Peter K, Robyn O. et al design and proto build early 1980s, second and mid gen versions mid 80s to early 1990s. Funding suspended as computer vision was being added. Tangentially, (years later, next university across in same city): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39902710 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39902710 > the Darwinian doctrine of the survival of the fittest That was Spencer; regrettably both Darwin and Wallace jumped on that proto Nazi dog whistle band wagon.
      - 082349872349872 3y ago
        Sorry for the inadvertent slur, mate! Funding suspended after the geneticists bred cattle (Australian Miniline) with small enough hind legs?

gndk 3y ago

Good, earth is full.