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In the lede "Rising Unemployment". But in fact broader federal numbers show unemployment near historic lows, surely CA can't be that far off, right? Let's goo

by ajross 3y ago

In the lede "Rising Unemployment". But in fact broader federal numbers show unemployment near historic lows, surely CA can't be that far off, right? Let's google for some data: https://ycharts.com/indicators/california_unemployment_rate#:~:text=Basic%20Info,long%20term%20average%20of%207.15%25 https://ycharts.com/indicators/california_unemployment_rate#.... Yeah, article is making signal out of noise. Unemployment was ~4.1% before the pandemic, spiked, recovered, and indeed has inched up to near 5% since. The graph shape indeed looks basically identical to federal data at FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE So... are we supposed to trust the rest of the article? Not sure I'd bet on it. People love articles that confirm priors, and those are the most dangerous kind.

leereeves 3y ago
Of course the spike during the pandemic and the decrease afterwards are similar, as they would be anywhere. But the pattern during the last year is different. The 1 year federal unemployment rate looks like noise: a mix of up and down. Down, down, up, down, down, up, flat, flat, down, flat, flat, up. And the total change over the last year was only 0.3%. There are no months in the last year when the UE rate fell in California. That would be very unusual for noise over a flat trend. Also, it's now 1.4% higher than the federal rate, and the total increase over the past year was 0.8%.
- ajross 3y ago
  Yeah, but it's not "rising" in the sense of a worrisome trend. It's low, and bouncing around its low value. Sure, the last years trend is mildly upwards where the federal trend is flat, but... so what? There are 50 states. Pull numbers form all of them and realistically half of them will show whatever nonsense trend you want to see. It's just a silly argument. Employment in California is simply not a problem. There are plenty of jobs, both historically and in comparison with the rest of the country.
  - leereeves 3y ago
    Are there plenty of jobs? The article says no: > In California there are roughly 0.8 job openings per unemployed person—the lowest in the country—whereas in America’s other 49 states the overall ratio is 1.6. And that checks out. It's the inverse of (1 divided by) this: https://www.bls.gov/charts/state-job-openings-and-labor-turnover/unemployed-persons-per-job-opening-by-state.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/state-job-openings-and-labor-turn...
    - ajross 3y ago
      Yeah, but, just look at that chart! California isn't shaped any differently than anyone else. It's always been somewhat higher on this metric, it was before the pandemic and it is now. But you'd absolutely not look at that chart with fresh eyes and flag it as an outlier. At all. It's doing what the rest of the labor market is doing. Really no state is particularly weird, which is about what you'd expect for a very fluid intra-national labor force.

by ajross 3y ago

leereeves 3y ago

Of course the spike during the pandemic and the decrease afterwards are similar, as they would be anywhere. But the pattern during the last year is different. The 1 year federal unemployment rate looks like noise: a mix of up and down. Down, down, up, down, down, up, flat, flat, down, flat, flat, up. And the total change over the last year was only 0.3%. There are no months in the last year when the UE rate fell in California. That would be very unusual for noise over a flat trend. Also, it's now 1.4% higher than the federal rate, and the total increase over the past year was 0.8%.

ajross 3y ago
Yeah, but it's not "rising" in the sense of a worrisome trend. It's low, and bouncing around its low value. Sure, the last years trend is mildly upwards where the federal trend is flat, but... so what? There are 50 states. Pull numbers form all of them and realistically half of them will show whatever nonsense trend you want to see. It's just a silly argument. Employment in California is simply not a problem. There are plenty of jobs, both historically and in comparison with the rest of the country.
- leereeves 3y ago
  Are there plenty of jobs? The article says no: > In California there are roughly 0.8 job openings per unemployed person—the lowest in the country—whereas in America’s other 49 states the overall ratio is 1.6. And that checks out. It's the inverse of (1 divided by) this: https://www.bls.gov/charts/state-job-openings-and-labor-turnover/unemployed-persons-per-job-opening-by-state.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/state-job-openings-and-labor-turn...
  - ajross 3y ago
    Yeah, but, just look at that chart! California isn't shaped any differently than anyone else. It's always been somewhat higher on this metric, it was before the pandemic and it is now. But you'd absolutely not look at that chart with fresh eyes and flag it as an outlier. At all. It's doing what the rest of the labor market is doing. Really no state is particularly weird, which is about what you'd expect for a very fluid intra-national labor force.