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Broadly speaking, there are two capabilities that are going the way of the dodo bird: 1. Software Development 2. Infrastructure Planning Software Development

Broadly speaking, there are two capabilities that are going the way of the dodo bird: 1. Software Development 2. Infrastructure Planning Software Development is going the way of the dodo because the pipeline is drying up for Junior Developers. Now just about any Senior Developer with Copilot can be that fabled 10x developer. A lot of those Senior Developers still have decades of career remaining. Software Development is therefore a dead career to be going into. Anecdote: I have friends who are hiring, each open position is now receiving thousands of applications. We read here on HN about seemingly competent software developers who've spent months if not over a year now looking for a job. There are two forces causing Infrastructure Planning to go the way of the dodo. One, is Cloud Computing. The other is Infrastructure Planning outsourcers - and the automated tools they're utilizing for infrastructure management. They come in, they setup your data center, and then install tools for you to use to automate the management. What should you be looking into then? Architecture. Whether it's Business Architecture, Enterprise Architecture, Enterprise Solutions Architecture, Software Architecture - we need architects. But your game had better far exceed Visio. If you don't know how to manipulate architecture models in tools like Sparx, and you don't know architectural languages such as BPML, SysML, and ArchiMate - then you're getting left behind. Cyber Security. The laundry list of what you need to know to be competent in this field is too numerous to list here. Added bonus - very few college programs are teaching this stuff so there are very few people in the pipeline and there's a huge demand for their skill. This will likely be a growing field for years to come. Data Architecture. I see this field as separate and distinct from the architecture I mentioned above. At the end of the day, it's called IT - Information Technology, and data is the new oil. Those people who understand how to manage data flows, data provenance, data storage, data analysis and so forth are in high demand. I look for a lot of this to start getting automated, but I would think it has at least another 10 years of legs under it. But software development? We can see its end coming. Let me put it this way, there are still going to be software developers but what they do and how they work is going to be fundamentally different from what we've been doing for the past 40 years.

comprev 3y ago
Your comment about Co-Pilot really resonates with me as last week I easily squashed 5 days of "busy work" into 1. Much of my work involves infrastructure development (Terraform/Terragrunt, Python, Gitlab, Jenkins, Azure, etc) and Co-Pilot (in VS Code) really gave a flywheel effect. After figuring out a few hacks like adding a comment on the same like as an attribute/variable, the AI assistant helped with declaring said variables: name, data type, description, even validation syntax (Terraform). Truly mind blowing for me!
- taylodl 3y ago
  Co-Pilot takes out the drudge work of coding, lessens the need to look at documentation, and reduces your trips to Stack Overflow. Any way you measure it, that's a boost in productivity. In this case it's potentially the largest boost in productivity we've ever seen. Ever. Think about this - I didn't even mention all the low-code/no-code tools that have been continually getting better over the past decade. I know a lot of small businesses that are using those tools to get the software they need. That, in turn, is forcing software developers to work for larger and larger companies. Companies that are going to want to turn that increased productivity into value for their shareholders. I wouldn't be at all surprise if in 10 years there are 50% fewer software developers than there are now. The software developers who remain will have a fundamentally different workflow than they have today.
- collyw 3y ago
  How does Co-Pilot compare top Chat-GPT? I paid for the professional version and it's worth it, but it's basically like a faster better Stack Overflow.
throwaway_indie 3y ago
I haven't really considered architecture, since from my decades of software dev, I have seen the term 'Architect' as more of a label for detached past engineers who want to justify their existence by setting out rules and strategies etc and who want to avoid hands-on work. I have a passion to solve interesting things, not write documents etc. Maybe I've been missing something. I'll check those acronyms you mentioned earlier though. But I would really prefer to stick to Android development or as much application development as possible. Or maybe product management, tech lead, code reviewing... I somehow hope that this AI phase is just a bubble that will burst and increase demand for senior specialized application developers again. I actually don't mind less influx of junior developers or fortune seeking non-technical management. When my interest in software began decades ago, tech was cool and skill was highly valued. Today it feels like a race to the bottom with more low-code and hopefully temporarily less demand for problem solving and intelligent development. I think people really need to stop putting too high hopes on AI and start realizing AI is more of a tool than a complete replacement of a (senior) developer. Eventually reality will catch up... Still, I haven't found what I have to do to get my freelance business up and running and architecture doesn't feel interesting enough. Cyber security seems like a lot to get into and I will not give up software development just yet. I don't want to get back to employment...
- taylodl 3y ago
  You are missing something - a bona fide architectural practice. Architects who can't code are worse than worthless. But - putting AI tools in the hands of good architects is an absolute force multiplier that companies are starting to realize.
fgjbginobbn 3y ago
> because the pipeline is drying up for Junior Developers How do you know this is due to AI and not poor economic conditions? > Now just about any Senior Developer with Copilot can be that fabled 10x developer While 10x can mean a lot of different things, I think it’s safe to say it’s not related to how fast you literally write code. I don’t see how Copilot is 10x’ing senior devs, unless they’re copying yaml all day (those tasks would be automated eventually, anyways). > Anecdote: I have friends who are hiring, each open position is now receiving thousands of applications Additional anecdote: 90% of those applications are worthless - as in you’re not even sure they’re real people worthless. To the OP: maybe your software skills will be replaced by AI, though if that happens most other white collar jobs are done as well.
- taylodl 3y ago
  > How do you know this is due to AI and not poor economic conditions? What poor economic conditions? The economy is doing just fine. The markets are doing fine. Profits are at record highs. This isn't like 1991, 2001, and 2008 - all of which I was present for. We're seeing software developers being let go by the hundreds of thousands across the industry in a comparatively strong economy. There's your sign.
  - cpcat 3y ago
    AI solutions haven't taken anyone's job yet. Current AI solutions do make copy-pasta a lot faster though. I believe the reason all these engineers lost their jobs is because of companies greedily re-budgeting to hire AI talent and acquire AI startups. AI still hasn't replaced any developers yet, although that might still happen one day.
    - taylodl 3y ago
      Have any evidence for that or are you just trying to console yourself? Because hundreds of thousands of developers have been laid off in a strong economy. Your arguing that happening at the same time as the general availability of AI is just a coincidence seems a bit disingenuous. Today's AI is a force multiplier, one of the largest productivity boosts in history. Of course companies are going to cash-out on that opportunity - and they are.
poulsbohemian 3y ago
>But software development? We can see its end coming. Let me put it this way, there are still going to be software developers but what they do and how they work is going to be fundamentally different from what we've been doing for the past 40 years. Do you really believe this? Not the evolution part, but the idea that software development will be dead in 40 years? Of course things will change, but I can't help but feel like everything revolves around software. It's in every device we touch, it's embedded in every industry, and I just don't believe that generative AI is going to magically replace all of that overnight.
- taylodl 3y ago
  Software development, as we understand it today, is going away. Absolutely. Note, I didn't say software is going away, but the methodologies currently used to create software are. Look at every engineering and manufacturing discipline over the past 100 years - they are significantly different today than they were back then, so much so that yesteryear's practitioners would not recognize today's methodologies and processes. We're at a major inflection point, and those currently in the pipeline learning the old ways are going to be ill-served.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]

comprev 3y ago

Your comment about Co-Pilot really resonates with me as last week I easily squashed 5 days of "busy work" into 1. Much of my work involves infrastructure development (Terraform/Terragrunt, Python, Gitlab, Jenkins, Azure, etc) and Co-Pilot (in VS Code) really gave a flywheel effect. After figuring out a few hacks like adding a comment on the same like as an attribute/variable, the AI assistant helped with declaring said variables: name, data type, description, even validation syntax (Terraform). Truly mind blowing for me!

taylodl 3y ago
Co-Pilot takes out the drudge work of coding, lessens the need to look at documentation, and reduces your trips to Stack Overflow. Any way you measure it, that's a boost in productivity. In this case it's potentially the largest boost in productivity we've ever seen. Ever. Think about this - I didn't even mention all the low-code/no-code tools that have been continually getting better over the past decade. I know a lot of small businesses that are using those tools to get the software they need. That, in turn, is forcing software developers to work for larger and larger companies. Companies that are going to want to turn that increased productivity into value for their shareholders. I wouldn't be at all surprise if in 10 years there are 50% fewer software developers than there are now. The software developers who remain will have a fundamentally different workflow than they have today.
collyw 3y ago
How does Co-Pilot compare top Chat-GPT? I paid for the professional version and it's worth it, but it's basically like a faster better Stack Overflow.

throwaway_indie 3y ago

I haven't really considered architecture, since from my decades of software dev, I have seen the term 'Architect' as more of a label for detached past engineers who want to justify their existence by setting out rules and strategies etc and who want to avoid hands-on work. I have a passion to solve interesting things, not write documents etc. Maybe I've been missing something. I'll check those acronyms you mentioned earlier though. But I would really prefer to stick to Android development or as much application development as possible. Or maybe product management, tech lead, code reviewing... I somehow hope that this AI phase is just a bubble that will burst and increase demand for senior specialized application developers again. I actually don't mind less influx of junior developers or fortune seeking non-technical management. When my interest in software began decades ago, tech was cool and skill was highly valued. Today it feels like a race to the bottom with more low-code and hopefully temporarily less demand for problem solving and intelligent development. I think people really need to stop putting too high hopes on AI and start realizing AI is more of a tool than a complete replacement of a (senior) developer. Eventually reality will catch up... Still, I haven't found what I have to do to get my freelance business up and running and architecture doesn't feel interesting enough. Cyber security seems like a lot to get into and I will not give up software development just yet. I don't want to get back to employment...

taylodl 3y ago
You are missing something - a bona fide architectural practice. Architects who can't code are worse than worthless. But - putting AI tools in the hands of good architects is an absolute force multiplier that companies are starting to realize.

fgjbginobbn 3y ago

> because the pipeline is drying up for Junior Developers How do you know this is due to AI and not poor economic conditions? > Now just about any Senior Developer with Copilot can be that fabled 10x developer While 10x can mean a lot of different things, I think it’s safe to say it’s not related to how fast you literally write code. I don’t see how Copilot is 10x’ing senior devs, unless they’re copying yaml all day (those tasks would be automated eventually, anyways). > Anecdote: I have friends who are hiring, each open position is now receiving thousands of applications Additional anecdote: 90% of those applications are worthless - as in you’re not even sure they’re real people worthless. To the OP: maybe your software skills will be replaced by AI, though if that happens most other white collar jobs are done as well.

taylodl 3y ago
> How do you know this is due to AI and not poor economic conditions? What poor economic conditions? The economy is doing just fine. The markets are doing fine. Profits are at record highs. This isn't like 1991, 2001, and 2008 - all of which I was present for. We're seeing software developers being let go by the hundreds of thousands across the industry in a comparatively strong economy. There's your sign.
- cpcat 3y ago
  AI solutions haven't taken anyone's job yet. Current AI solutions do make copy-pasta a lot faster though. I believe the reason all these engineers lost their jobs is because of companies greedily re-budgeting to hire AI talent and acquire AI startups. AI still hasn't replaced any developers yet, although that might still happen one day.
  - taylodl 3y ago
    Have any evidence for that or are you just trying to console yourself? Because hundreds of thousands of developers have been laid off in a strong economy. Your arguing that happening at the same time as the general availability of AI is just a coincidence seems a bit disingenuous. Today's AI is a force multiplier, one of the largest productivity boosts in history. Of course companies are going to cash-out on that opportunity - and they are.

poulsbohemian 3y ago

>But software development? We can see its end coming. Let me put it this way, there are still going to be software developers but what they do and how they work is going to be fundamentally different from what we've been doing for the past 40 years. Do you really believe this? Not the evolution part, but the idea that software development will be dead in 40 years? Of course things will change, but I can't help but feel like everything revolves around software. It's in every device we touch, it's embedded in every industry, and I just don't believe that generative AI is going to magically replace all of that overnight.

taylodl 3y ago
Software development, as we understand it today, is going away. Absolutely. Note, I didn't say software is going away, but the methodologies currently used to create software are. Look at every engineering and manufacturing discipline over the past 100 years - they are significantly different today than they were back then, so much so that yesteryear's practitioners would not recognize today's methodologies and processes. We're at a major inflection point, and those currently in the pipeline learning the old ways are going to be ill-served.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]