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Ask HN: How do you decide what to do given market trends?

How do you decide what to do when you don't find contract posts that match your skills? I've quit my job as an Android developer (Kotlin) and wanted to take contract work. Such contracts seem to be very rare in Sweden these days and there are more devops/project leader/web/fullstack/react contracts. If you were in my shoesm, would you do online courses and get certifications in more popular tech stacks and skills or would you reach out to people and wait weeks/months for the demand in the market to increase as the recession turns towards boom? I've also considered creating products but since I'm no web dev and no great idea yet and no customer contract work still seems to be the best way to go to get freedom and future income. Anyone else in a similar situation or with tips or suggestions?

taylodl 3y ago
Broadly speaking, there are two capabilities that are going the way of the dodo bird: 1. Software Development 2. Infrastructure Planning Software Development is going the way of the dodo because the pipeline is drying up for Junior Developers. Now just about any Senior Developer with Copilot can be that fabled 10x developer. A lot of those Senior Developers still have decades of career remaining. Software Development is therefore a dead career to be going into. Anecdote: I have friends who are hiring, each open position is now receiving thousands of applications. We read here on HN about seemingly competent software developers who've spent months if not over a year now looking for a job. There are two forces causing Infrastructure Planning to go the way of the dodo. One, is Cloud Computing. The other is Infrastructure Planning outsourcers - and the automated tools they're utilizing for infrastructure management. They come in, they setup your data center, and then install tools for you to use to automate the management. What should you be looking into then? Architecture. Whether it's Business Architecture, Enterprise Architecture, Enterprise Solutions Architecture, Software Architecture - we need architects. But your game had better far exceed Visio. If you don't know how to manipulate architecture models in tools like Sparx, and you don't know architectural languages such as BPML, SysML, and ArchiMate - then you're getting left behind. Cyber Security. The laundry list of what you need to know to be competent in this field is too numerous to list here. Added bonus - very few college programs are teaching this stuff so there are very few people in the pipeline and there's a huge demand for their skill. This will likely be a growing field for years to come. Data Architecture. I see this field as separate and distinct from the architecture I mentioned above. At the end of the day, it's called IT - Information Technology, and data is the new oil. Those people who understand how to manage data flows, data provenance, data storage, data analysis and so forth are in high demand. I look for a lot of this to start getting automated, but I would think it has at least another 10 years of legs under it. But software development? We can see its end coming. Let me put it this way, there are still going to be software developers but what they do and how they work is going to be fundamentally different from what we've been doing for the past 40 years.
- comprev 3y ago
  Your comment about Co-Pilot really resonates with me as last week I easily squashed 5 days of "busy work" into 1. Much of my work involves infrastructure development (Terraform/Terragrunt, Python, Gitlab, Jenkins, Azure, etc) and Co-Pilot (in VS Code) really gave a flywheel effect. After figuring out a few hacks like adding a comment on the same like as an attribute/variable, the AI assistant helped with declaring said variables: name, data type, description, even validation syntax (Terraform). Truly mind blowing for me!
  - taylodl 3y ago
    Co-Pilot takes out the drudge work of coding, lessens the need to look at documentation, and reduces your trips to Stack Overflow. Any way you measure it, that's a boost in productivity. In this case it's potentially the largest boost in productivity we've ever seen. Ever. Think about this - I didn't even mention all the low-code/no-code tools that have been continually getting better over the past decade. I know a lot of small businesses that are using those tools to get the software they need. That, in turn, is forcing software developers to work for larger and larger companies. Companies that are going to want to turn that increased productivity into value for their shareholders. I wouldn't be at all surprise if in 10 years there are 50% fewer software developers than there are now. The software developers who remain will have a fundamentally different workflow than they have today.
  - collyw 3y ago
    How does Co-Pilot compare top Chat-GPT? I paid for the professional version and it's worth it, but it's basically like a faster better Stack Overflow.
- throwaway_indie 3y ago
  I haven't really considered architecture, since from my decades of software dev, I have seen the term 'Architect' as more of a label for detached past engineers who want to justify their existence by setting out rules and strategies etc and who want to avoid hands-on work. I have a passion to solve interesting things, not write documents etc. Maybe I've been missing something. I'll check those acronyms you mentioned earlier though. But I would really prefer to stick to Android development or as much application development as possible. Or maybe product management, tech lead, code reviewing... I somehow hope that this AI phase is just a bubble that will burst and increase demand for senior specialized application developers again. I actually don't mind less influx of junior developers or fortune seeking non-technical management. When my interest in software began decades ago, tech was cool and skill was highly valued. Today it feels like a race to the bottom with more low-code and hopefully temporarily less demand for problem solving and intelligent development. I think people really need to stop putting too high hopes on AI and start realizing AI is more of a tool than a complete replacement of a (senior) developer. Eventually reality will catch up... Still, I haven't found what I have to do to get my freelance business up and running and architecture doesn't feel interesting enough. Cyber security seems like a lot to get into and I will not give up software development just yet. I don't want to get back to employment...
brudgers 3y ago
If you were in my shoesm, would you do online courses and get certifications in more popular tech stacks and skills or would you reach out to people I would reach out to people because sales is all that matters for a business and building relationships is how B2B sales work. I would not get certifications etc. because that is pretend work. Pretend work is attractive because it avoids selling. Pretend work avoids selling because selling is mostly rejection and rejection sucks…ergo selling sucks until you get used to it —- avoiding selling will not normalize rejection. wait weeks/months for the demand in the market to increase as the recession turns towards boom? Building relationships during busts is how a business leverages booms later. Or to put it another way, you are just making another argument to rationalize sitting on your seat in your office instead of pounding the pavement to find work. High the technical ability without sales equals a failing business. High sales without technical capability is a road to success. Just hire the talent you need and build that cost into your price (plus markup for overhead and profit of course). Getting lucky is not a plan. You need at least the luck of not having bad luck even in the best of times. Embracing the suck is the only thing in your control. Good luck.
sandspar 3y ago
You quit your job before you had the next thing lined up?
- ksherlock 3y ago
  Cortés scuttled his boats before marching to Tenochtitlan. Sometimes you need to burn your bridges -- figuratively and literally -- to move forward.
patatino 3y ago
Sales sale sales, network network network. Yes, we like to avoid it, so we come up with excuses like let's get a certificate. It's pointless. Learn to sell yourself or get another job.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
jameshush 3y ago
Text ten previous co-workers the following: ``` Hi $NAME! I saw on $SOME_SOCIAL_MEDIA_PLATFORM you're doing $SOMETHING and I wanted to say hi! I'm looking for an Android developer job, do you know anyone hiring? ``` Only send ten messages. Try to personalize it as much as possible. From there message every person they suggest. With a similar template.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
Rupal_S 3y ago
Yes. It happens a lot when you are working as an independent consultant. a. You can invest in learning new technology b. You can invest a newly learned technology and build a small product /utility.
aristofun 3y ago
If you're any good at kotlin - create and sell some courses, books to share your valuable skills with others. While you're looking for a decent job offer.
muzani 3y ago
I do Android dev and have contracted for 5 years. It's a different job than full time work. Most of the clients you'll find are products whose core is mobile, but they don't have the budget for it. Some will be huge. They have maybe 4 or so mobile teams but they want to add a new feature. Back in the heights of VC money, these were startups raising $300m or something, under pressure to use that money to grow. Those were great times to freelance. Now, it's probably a company that has laid off their entire team but now needs to make changes. Little money and no documentation. Some would recommend spreading out into other mobile things (iOS/Flutter/RN), but I'd say that's doubling down on a market that may not exist. I'd say do a different market like React which you can learn from. There's no good books on how to do Compose + Flow afaik, but there's plenty of great books on React. You can learn established methods. It's more of a low risk/medium returns approach, while you keep your experience on Android as a high risk/high returns skill.

taylodl 3y ago

Broadly speaking, there are two capabilities that are going the way of the dodo bird: 1. Software Development 2. Infrastructure Planning Software Development is going the way of the dodo because the pipeline is drying up for Junior Developers. Now just about any Senior Developer with Copilot can be that fabled 10x developer. A lot of those Senior Developers still have decades of career remaining. Software Development is therefore a dead career to be going into. Anecdote: I have friends who are hiring, each open position is now receiving thousands of applications. We read here on HN about seemingly competent software developers who've spent months if not over a year now looking for a job. There are two forces causing Infrastructure Planning to go the way of the dodo. One, is Cloud Computing. The other is Infrastructure Planning outsourcers - and the automated tools they're utilizing for infrastructure management. They come in, they setup your data center, and then install tools for you to use to automate the management. What should you be looking into then? Architecture. Whether it's Business Architecture, Enterprise Architecture, Enterprise Solutions Architecture, Software Architecture - we need architects. But your game had better far exceed Visio. If you don't know how to manipulate architecture models in tools like Sparx, and you don't know architectural languages such as BPML, SysML, and ArchiMate - then you're getting left behind. Cyber Security. The laundry list of what you need to know to be competent in this field is too numerous to list here. Added bonus - very few college programs are teaching this stuff so there are very few people in the pipeline and there's a huge demand for their skill. This will likely be a growing field for years to come. Data Architecture. I see this field as separate and distinct from the architecture I mentioned above. At the end of the day, it's called IT - Information Technology, and data is the new oil. Those people who understand how to manage data flows, data provenance, data storage, data analysis and so forth are in high demand. I look for a lot of this to start getting automated, but I would think it has at least another 10 years of legs under it. But software development? We can see its end coming. Let me put it this way, there are still going to be software developers but what they do and how they work is going to be fundamentally different from what we've been doing for the past 40 years.

comprev 3y ago
Your comment about Co-Pilot really resonates with me as last week I easily squashed 5 days of "busy work" into 1. Much of my work involves infrastructure development (Terraform/Terragrunt, Python, Gitlab, Jenkins, Azure, etc) and Co-Pilot (in VS Code) really gave a flywheel effect. After figuring out a few hacks like adding a comment on the same like as an attribute/variable, the AI assistant helped with declaring said variables: name, data type, description, even validation syntax (Terraform). Truly mind blowing for me!
- taylodl 3y ago
  Co-Pilot takes out the drudge work of coding, lessens the need to look at documentation, and reduces your trips to Stack Overflow. Any way you measure it, that's a boost in productivity. In this case it's potentially the largest boost in productivity we've ever seen. Ever. Think about this - I didn't even mention all the low-code/no-code tools that have been continually getting better over the past decade. I know a lot of small businesses that are using those tools to get the software they need. That, in turn, is forcing software developers to work for larger and larger companies. Companies that are going to want to turn that increased productivity into value for their shareholders. I wouldn't be at all surprise if in 10 years there are 50% fewer software developers than there are now. The software developers who remain will have a fundamentally different workflow than they have today.
- collyw 3y ago
  How does Co-Pilot compare top Chat-GPT? I paid for the professional version and it's worth it, but it's basically like a faster better Stack Overflow.
throwaway_indie 3y ago
I haven't really considered architecture, since from my decades of software dev, I have seen the term 'Architect' as more of a label for detached past engineers who want to justify their existence by setting out rules and strategies etc and who want to avoid hands-on work. I have a passion to solve interesting things, not write documents etc. Maybe I've been missing something. I'll check those acronyms you mentioned earlier though. But I would really prefer to stick to Android development or as much application development as possible. Or maybe product management, tech lead, code reviewing... I somehow hope that this AI phase is just a bubble that will burst and increase demand for senior specialized application developers again. I actually don't mind less influx of junior developers or fortune seeking non-technical management. When my interest in software began decades ago, tech was cool and skill was highly valued. Today it feels like a race to the bottom with more low-code and hopefully temporarily less demand for problem solving and intelligent development. I think people really need to stop putting too high hopes on AI and start realizing AI is more of a tool than a complete replacement of a (senior) developer. Eventually reality will catch up... Still, I haven't found what I have to do to get my freelance business up and running and architecture doesn't feel interesting enough. Cyber security seems like a lot to get into and I will not give up software development just yet. I don't want to get back to employment...

brudgers 3y ago

If you were in my shoesm, would you do online courses and get certifications in more popular tech stacks and skills or would you reach out to people I would reach out to people because sales is all that matters for a business and building relationships is how B2B sales work. I would not get certifications etc. because that is pretend work. Pretend work is attractive because it avoids selling. Pretend work avoids selling because selling is mostly rejection and rejection sucks…ergo selling sucks until you get used to it —- avoiding selling will not normalize rejection. wait weeks/months for the demand in the market to increase as the recession turns towards boom? Building relationships during busts is how a business leverages booms later. Or to put it another way, you are just making another argument to rationalize sitting on your seat in your office instead of pounding the pavement to find work. High the technical ability without sales equals a failing business. High sales without technical capability is a road to success. Just hire the talent you need and build that cost into your price (plus markup for overhead and profit of course). Getting lucky is not a plan. You need at least the luck of not having bad luck even in the best of times. Embracing the suck is the only thing in your control. Good luck.

sandspar 3y ago

You quit your job before you had the next thing lined up?

ksherlock 3y ago
Cortés scuttled his boats before marching to Tenochtitlan. Sometimes you need to burn your bridges -- figuratively and literally -- to move forward.

patatino 3y ago

Sales sale sales, network network network. Yes, we like to avoid it, so we come up with excuses like let's get a certificate. It's pointless. Learn to sell yourself or get another job.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

jameshush 3y ago

Text ten previous co-workers the following: ``` Hi $NAME! I saw on $SOME_SOCIAL_MEDIA_PLATFORM you're doing $SOMETHING and I wanted to say hi! I'm looking for an Android developer job, do you know anyone hiring? ``` Only send ten messages. Try to personalize it as much as possible. From there message every person they suggest. With a similar template.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

Rupal_S 3y ago

Yes. It happens a lot when you are working as an independent consultant. a. You can invest in learning new technology b. You can invest a newly learned technology and build a small product /utility.

aristofun 3y ago

If you're any good at kotlin - create and sell some courses, books to share your valuable skills with others. While you're looking for a decent job offer.

muzani 3y ago

I do Android dev and have contracted for 5 years. It's a different job than full time work. Most of the clients you'll find are products whose core is mobile, but they don't have the budget for it. Some will be huge. They have maybe 4 or so mobile teams but they want to add a new feature. Back in the heights of VC money, these were startups raising $300m or something, under pressure to use that money to grow. Those were great times to freelance. Now, it's probably a company that has laid off their entire team but now needs to make changes. Little money and no documentation. Some would recommend spreading out into other mobile things (iOS/Flutter/RN), but I'd say that's doubling down on a market that may not exist. I'd say do a different market like React which you can learn from. There's no good books on how to do Compose + Flow afaik, but there's plenty of great books on React. You can learn established methods. It's more of a low risk/medium returns approach, while you keep your experience on Android as a high risk/high returns skill.