9 ms·

You're making a lot of assumptions and predictions there. Not to say that you're wrong, but we don't yet know if you're right. My opinion is that we're seeing t

by jemmyw 3y ago

You're making a lot of assumptions and predictions there. Not to say that you're wrong, but we don't yet know if you're right. My opinion is that we're seeing the shape of the limitations of these LLMs. I use them a lot for coding, it's a sea change. But you still have to understand what you're doing, they don't produce accurate code all the time, and I'm not convinced they'll be able to just insert working code into existing complex systems. > but what if AI creates much better, more powerful, exciting, better films than those you could imagine? Well, something to deal with when it can. Right now it cannot do this.

KingOfCoders 3y ago
Everything about the future is based on assumptions. Nevertheless we talk about the future.
- jemmyw 3y ago
  Yes we do, but there are things we can talk about with certainty and things we can talk about with probabilities. I'll certainly get older and die. But AI won't certainly take all coding jobs. It's highly likely to change all coding jobs. We can discuss the changes with a higher degree of interest and thought. The author seems very certain though that AI will take all coding jobs. A lot of things seem to have a great potential and then peak a lot lower. AI producing very impressive but very short videos gives us a sense that it has the potential to produce whole, coherent films that tell a story.
  - KingOfCoders 3y ago
    There will always be public phones. Sure, mobile phones will grow. But they are expensive. We estimate the total demand for mobile phones to peak at 900.000 [0] All public phones? That is a big assumption we can't make with certainty. The drivers have always been convenience and cost. AI is the ultimate in convenience and cost. I guess there will be programmers needed for legacy systems in Fortran an Java. But new companies 5 years ago didn't use Fortran or Java for new projects, the coming companies will not hire coders for their products. [0] https://www.economist.com/special-report/1999/10/07/cutting-the-cord https://www.economist.com/special-report/1999/10/07/cutting-...
microtonal 3y ago
But you still have to understand what you're doing, they don't produce accurate code all the time, and I'm not convinced they'll be able to just insert working code into existing complex systems. I fully agree. I have been using Copilot for a while and the errors it makes in more complex domains (algorithms and data structures more complex than 'write me a quicksort') are just stupendous. Even at a more basic level, it regularly makes Rust syntax errors that my 10yo daughter has no issues spotting. It has been really awesome for writing boilerplate code though. Especially with in-context learning, writing one example and then letting the model extrapolate it to other methods, functions, etc. works great and saves me a lot of time. It's hard to predict the future. But the current best models feel more like a much better IntelliSense (though API hallucination is a serious issue) than something that is going to replace good programmers anytime soon (unless your task is writing boilerplate code).

by jemmyw 3y ago

KingOfCoders 3y ago

Everything about the future is based on assumptions. Nevertheless we talk about the future.

jemmyw 3y ago
Yes we do, but there are things we can talk about with certainty and things we can talk about with probabilities. I'll certainly get older and die. But AI won't certainly take all coding jobs. It's highly likely to change all coding jobs. We can discuss the changes with a higher degree of interest and thought. The author seems very certain though that AI will take all coding jobs. A lot of things seem to have a great potential and then peak a lot lower. AI producing very impressive but very short videos gives us a sense that it has the potential to produce whole, coherent films that tell a story.
- KingOfCoders 3y ago
  There will always be public phones. Sure, mobile phones will grow. But they are expensive. We estimate the total demand for mobile phones to peak at 900.000 [0] All public phones? That is a big assumption we can't make with certainty. The drivers have always been convenience and cost. AI is the ultimate in convenience and cost. I guess there will be programmers needed for legacy systems in Fortran an Java. But new companies 5 years ago didn't use Fortran or Java for new projects, the coming companies will not hire coders for their products. [0] https://www.economist.com/special-report/1999/10/07/cutting-the-cord https://www.economist.com/special-report/1999/10/07/cutting-...

microtonal 3y ago

But you still have to understand what you're doing, they don't produce accurate code all the time, and I'm not convinced they'll be able to just insert working code into existing complex systems. I fully agree. I have been using Copilot for a while and the errors it makes in more complex domains (algorithms and data structures more complex than 'write me a quicksort') are just stupendous. Even at a more basic level, it regularly makes Rust syntax errors that my 10yo daughter has no issues spotting. It has been really awesome for writing boilerplate code though. Especially with in-context learning, writing one example and then letting the model extrapolate it to other methods, functions, etc. works great and saves me a lot of time. It's hard to predict the future. But the current best models feel more like a much better IntelliSense (though API hallucination is a serious issue) than something that is going to replace good programmers anytime soon (unless your task is writing boilerplate code).