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Huge misconceptions from naysayers in this thread as per usual with anything related to autonomous. Let's establish a few items... 1) Autonomous trucks do not
by mdorazio 3y ago
Huge misconceptions from naysayers in this thread as per usual with anything related to autonomous. Let's establish a few items...
1) Autonomous trucks do not need to, nor will they, drive on "difficult" routes to be impactful. The "Texas triangle" alone accounts for a huge volume of truck traffic. Add the LA to El Paso route on I-10 and you've got another huge volume of trucks. There are similar routes all over the US.
2) The automated part will start as hub-to-hub to make the ODD simpler. Pick up a trailer ~15 miles outside a city, drive it non-stop to another hub ~15 miles outside the destination city, drop it off. Human drivers ferry the loads the rest of the way to/from warehouses, the autonomous trucks can drive around the clock with lower accident rates and push down fleet costs as a result.
3) Just because the trucks aren't ready today doesn't mean they won't be in the near future. Everyone got jaded by the breathless CEOs and pundits a few years ago who were full of shit, but those of us in the trenches always had realistic expectations. Current timelines are looking like 2027 for scale-up on fully driverless trucks. 3 years is nothing in the automotive industry, especially for something as potentially cost-saving as autonomous trucking.
4) Unlike robo-taxis, the autonomous trucking business model is fairly easy to understand, and the economics absolutely can work if ADK costs continue declining.