4 ms·

Why are there many people dying the last few days? I am reading hacker news every day, but it feels like there’s at least a death note or two a day currently

morphle 3y ago
The number of people dying will increase two score and ten years [2] after a baby boom [1] like the United States post-war baby boom. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boom [2] https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Psalm%2090%3A10&version=KJV https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Psalm%2090%3A10...
- endymi0n 3y ago
  also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion
  - jimmygrapes 3y ago
    Modern medical miracles aside, I doubt the die-off of baby boomers all within a short period is a clustering illusion.
- ShamelessC 3y ago
  How is that bible verse relevant exactly?
  - morphle 3y ago
    To explain threescore years and ten. A better link would have been https://www.oed.com/dictionary/threescore_adj?tl=true#:~:text=with%20ellipsis%20of%20years%2C%20in%20reference%20to%20age%3B%20hence%20as,)%20and%20ten%2C%20seventy%20years https://www.oed.com/dictionary/threescore_adj?tl=true#:~:tex....
  - somenameforme 3y ago
    I wasn't aware of it, but found it extremely interesting. A topic I find particularly interesting is the illusion of longevity many have in modern times. Look at the Ancient Greeks and most of them lived 70-100 years of age, with a median age beyond 70. [1] The typical argument is of a survivorship bias, but most/all of the Greeks we know of today would still have gone in history if they had died many decades prior. You can also look at other samples like the Founding Fathers of the US. Most lived past 70, and some even lived beyond 90. The only people who died before 60 were Alexander Hamilton, killed in a duel and John Hancock, died of gout - which can be caused by things including excessive drinking. There was indeed a very low life expectancy in the past, but it was 100% due to infant mortality. If one child dies in infancy, and the other lives to 80, then you have a life expectancy at birth of 40. That the Bible itself also noted this, is extremely interesting. Not even from a religious perspective, but from a historic one. It's really interesting to think about. As an adult today, you have a similar life expectancy to an (upper class) adult from thousands of years ago. There are many implications that one can apply to modern life. For instance it's safe to say that their dietary/lifestyle choices are very much worth considering, if not emulating. [1] - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18359748/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18359748/
throwaway74432 3y ago
If you were in your 30s when the modern internet was born, then you're in your 70s now. The early pioneers and contributors are old now.
- brcmthrowaway 3y ago
  I can't imagine myself not being "with it" and having some knowledge about current technology.. Do you think any of the early modern Internet pioneers know about LLMs? (Besides John Nagle)? Or does the brain biologically give up on processing new information?
  - AlbertCory 3y ago
    1. What makes you think any of the Internet pioneers are not "with it" as you put it? 2. What makes you think you know how you'll feel in 50 years? You cannot possibly predict that.
  - convolvatron 3y ago
    I met and worked with alot of the early internet pioneers and they were some of the most clever and insightful people that I've ever met. I assure you that barring a serious medical condition they all maintain at least a basic awareness about the state of computing.
  - dsr_ 3y ago
    LLMs are a frequent topic of conversation on at least one ex-employees-of-an-internet-pioneer mailing list, yes.
    - brcmthrowaway 3y ago
      What is the mailing list?
      - dsr_ 3y ago
        If you worked for Bolt, Beranek and Newman, you're eligible.
bertil 3y ago
Winter and the baby boom?
raziel2701 3y ago
The boomers are dying. Life expectancy is 76 years in the US. Which reminds me, that middle-age is actually 38. I'm halfway done with my life. Yikes!
- somenameforme 3y ago
  The way I look at it is that I was, in hindsight, barely sentient for the first ~25 years, so that means we've only really gotten to live for 10-20 years!
  - jessekv 3y ago
    I like this argument, I just wonder if the bar rises over time. Do you think that in 5 years you will say you were barely sentient for the first ~30 years?
    - somenameforme 3y ago
      I've also wondered the exact same thing. Suppose we'll see!
- moomoo11 3y ago
  It does make me sad sometimes. But I find great comfort knowing we were all along for the journey together. Whether we knew each other or not, I’m glad to have shared this space time with you and others. We are here because of those before us. Those after us will be there because of us. Good stuff.

morphle 3y ago

The number of people dying will increase two score and ten years [2] after a baby boom [1] like the United States post-war baby boom. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boom [2] https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Psalm%2090%3A10&version=KJV https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Psalm%2090%3A10...

endymi0n 3y ago
also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion
- jimmygrapes 3y ago
  Modern medical miracles aside, I doubt the die-off of baby boomers all within a short period is a clustering illusion.
ShamelessC 3y ago
How is that bible verse relevant exactly?
- morphle 3y ago
  To explain threescore years and ten. A better link would have been https://www.oed.com/dictionary/threescore_adj?tl=true#:~:text=with%20ellipsis%20of%20years%2C%20in%20reference%20to%20age%3B%20hence%20as,)%20and%20ten%2C%20seventy%20years https://www.oed.com/dictionary/threescore_adj?tl=true#:~:tex....
- somenameforme 3y ago
  I wasn't aware of it, but found it extremely interesting. A topic I find particularly interesting is the illusion of longevity many have in modern times. Look at the Ancient Greeks and most of them lived 70-100 years of age, with a median age beyond 70. [1] The typical argument is of a survivorship bias, but most/all of the Greeks we know of today would still have gone in history if they had died many decades prior. You can also look at other samples like the Founding Fathers of the US. Most lived past 70, and some even lived beyond 90. The only people who died before 60 were Alexander Hamilton, killed in a duel and John Hancock, died of gout - which can be caused by things including excessive drinking. There was indeed a very low life expectancy in the past, but it was 100% due to infant mortality. If one child dies in infancy, and the other lives to 80, then you have a life expectancy at birth of 40. That the Bible itself also noted this, is extremely interesting. Not even from a religious perspective, but from a historic one. It's really interesting to think about. As an adult today, you have a similar life expectancy to an (upper class) adult from thousands of years ago. There are many implications that one can apply to modern life. For instance it's safe to say that their dietary/lifestyle choices are very much worth considering, if not emulating. [1] - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18359748/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18359748/

throwaway74432 3y ago

If you were in your 30s when the modern internet was born, then you're in your 70s now. The early pioneers and contributors are old now.

brcmthrowaway 3y ago
I can't imagine myself not being "with it" and having some knowledge about current technology.. Do you think any of the early modern Internet pioneers know about LLMs? (Besides John Nagle)? Or does the brain biologically give up on processing new information?
- AlbertCory 3y ago
  1. What makes you think any of the Internet pioneers are not "with it" as you put it? 2. What makes you think you know how you'll feel in 50 years? You cannot possibly predict that.
- convolvatron 3y ago
  I met and worked with alot of the early internet pioneers and they were some of the most clever and insightful people that I've ever met. I assure you that barring a serious medical condition they all maintain at least a basic awareness about the state of computing.
- dsr_ 3y ago
  LLMs are a frequent topic of conversation on at least one ex-employees-of-an-internet-pioneer mailing list, yes.
  - brcmthrowaway 3y ago
    What is the mailing list?
    - dsr_ 3y ago
      If you worked for Bolt, Beranek and Newman, you're eligible.

bertil 3y ago

Winter and the baby boom?

raziel2701 3y ago

The boomers are dying. Life expectancy is 76 years in the US. Which reminds me, that middle-age is actually 38. I'm halfway done with my life. Yikes!

somenameforme 3y ago
The way I look at it is that I was, in hindsight, barely sentient for the first ~25 years, so that means we've only really gotten to live for 10-20 years!
- jessekv 3y ago
  I like this argument, I just wonder if the bar rises over time. Do you think that in 5 years you will say you were barely sentient for the first ~30 years?
  - somenameforme 3y ago
    I've also wondered the exact same thing. Suppose we'll see!
moomoo11 3y ago
It does make me sad sometimes. But I find great comfort knowing we were all along for the journey together. Whether we knew each other or not, I’m glad to have shared this space time with you and others. We are here because of those before us. Those after us will be there because of us. Good stuff.