5 ms·

Do you prefer John Oliver anecdotes or numbers?

wakawaka28 3y ago
I don't like John Oliver. Anyway, I would like to know how many near misses there have been over time. Not just deadly crashes. We could have seen a decline in already-rare fatal crashes as all other types of crashes increase, and planes literally keep falling apart. I think this blogger is trolling with a hot take and/or pushing propaganda.
- frabjoused 3y ago
  It’s very easy to objectively see the improvement over time. Just google around and look at some charts from the 60s to today, preferably that relate accidents and fatalities per million flights so it’s properly scaled. Every chart you look at has improved remarkably. Doesn’t matter how many recent Boeing anecdotes you pull out, planes and regulations have improved and the result is in these numbers.
  - wakawaka28 3y ago
    It's not just anecdotes. Many planes were parked for 2 years and suffered unexpected issues as they were rushed back into service with minimal oversight, after many experienced personnel retired. This isn't even addressing the Boeing whistleblower who mysteriously "committed suicide" after telling his family that he wouldn't, or the spectacular accidents lately with wheels and doors literally falling off of aircraft. You can google all the stats you want but in the current environment I don't trust any recent stats. They are at best cherry-picked, like making dubious claims about "deaths in 2023" vs. serious accidents which indicate systemic problems.
    - abenga 3y ago
      > It's not just anecdotes. They are, almost by definition. > Many planes were parked for 2 years and suffered unexpected issues as they were rushed back into service with minimal oversight, after many experienced personnel retired. I haven't heard of any, care to give examples? I did hear of a few runway incursion incidents due to ATC staff shortage and overwork, but these seem to have subsided (though there was a really bad one in Japan just a couple of days into 2024 that killed some people). > or the spectacular accidents lately with wheels and doors literally falling off of aircraft. Incidents, not accidents. There is a difference. > You can google all the stats you want but in the current environment I don't trust any recent stats. They are at best cherry-picked, like making dubious claims about "deaths in 2023" vs. serious accidents which indicate systemic problems. How can you not trust a simple stat like number of deaths / number of miles flown? Do you think there were accidents with deaths that were hidden? Not to say that there aren't reasons to worry about the slippages at Boeing, though. They betray a negligent eating into the safety margins the industry has built into design and operation of aircraft. The point is that last year, these margins held.
      - wakawaka28 3y ago
        >They are, almost by definition. They're not my anecdotes. They are things that made international news due to being so scandalous. One blogger pulls uncited stats out his ass and now I have to fight in the comment section to get people to admit the obvious. >I haven't heard of any, care to give examples? Sure. 1. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/faa-clears-boeing-737-max-fly-again/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/faa-clears-boeing-737-max-fly-a... 2. https://unitedafa.org/news/2021/5/4/airlines-rush-to-put-parked-airplanes-back-in-the-sky/ https://unitedafa.org/news/2021/5/4/airlines-rush-to-put-par... 3. https://news.delta.com/how-delta-people-are-awakening-over-550-hibernating-planes https://news.delta.com/how-delta-people-are-awakening-over-5... 4. https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/08/business/boeing-safety-quality-problems/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/08/business/boeing-safety-qualit... 5. https://fortune.com/2024/03/08/boeing-united-airlines-runs-off-taxi-tire-engine-fire/ https://fortune.com/2024/03/08/boeing-united-airlines-runs-o... 6. https://fortune.com/2023/06/01/retirement-surge-worker-gap-airlines-nurses-construction-manufacturing/ https://fortune.com/2023/06/01/retirement-surge-worker-gap-a... So you see, there is a clear pattern here. If you're waiting for these people to incriminate themselves, you're going to be waiting a long time. But they can't hide accidents for long because everyone cares about having safe planes, and every single one of these incidents has hundreds of witnesses. >How can you not trust a simple stat like number of deaths / number of miles flown? Do you think there were accidents with deaths that were hidden? I think I already explained it. Airplane crashes are very rare, so I believe the numbers can vary dramatically year by year. Planes are very variable in capacity, so the number of flights and deaths is also highly variable. I can't say for sure whether the number is reliable, but even if it is I think being fixated on that number is a bad idea. All the negligence and personnel issues are putting people in grave danger. >Incidents, not accidents. There is a difference. Yes this is true. Accident implies nobody is at fault, or this stuff is excusable. It really isn't, because it's negligence at multiple levels. On the bright side, that is easier to fix than defective plane designs. I find the presence of this article to be inorganic. Why is this dude trying to convince us that air travel is safer, when everyone can see that it isn't because of the sheer number of ridiculous failures? That's the hilarious nature of the world we live in. People committed to lying for a living put themselves in the position of having to say amusingly wrong shit all the time. I expect to eventually see a reporter telling us that planes are safe as a plane crashes in the background behind him. It would fit the 2020s perfectly.

I don't like John Oliver. Anyway, I would like to know how many near misses there have been over time. Not just deadly crashes. We could have seen a decline in already-rare fatal crashes as all other types of crashes increase, and planes literally keep falling apart. I think this blogger is trolling with a hot take and/or pushing propaganda.

frabjoused 3y ago
It’s very easy to objectively see the improvement over time. Just google around and look at some charts from the 60s to today, preferably that relate accidents and fatalities per million flights so it’s properly scaled. Every chart you look at has improved remarkably. Doesn’t matter how many recent Boeing anecdotes you pull out, planes and regulations have improved and the result is in these numbers.
- wakawaka28 3y ago
  It's not just anecdotes. Many planes were parked for 2 years and suffered unexpected issues as they were rushed back into service with minimal oversight, after many experienced personnel retired. This isn't even addressing the Boeing whistleblower who mysteriously "committed suicide" after telling his family that he wouldn't, or the spectacular accidents lately with wheels and doors literally falling off of aircraft. You can google all the stats you want but in the current environment I don't trust any recent stats. They are at best cherry-picked, like making dubious claims about "deaths in 2023" vs. serious accidents which indicate systemic problems.
  - abenga 3y ago
    > It's not just anecdotes. They are, almost by definition. > Many planes were parked for 2 years and suffered unexpected issues as they were rushed back into service with minimal oversight, after many experienced personnel retired. I haven't heard of any, care to give examples? I did hear of a few runway incursion incidents due to ATC staff shortage and overwork, but these seem to have subsided (though there was a really bad one in Japan just a couple of days into 2024 that killed some people). > or the spectacular accidents lately with wheels and doors literally falling off of aircraft. Incidents, not accidents. There is a difference. > You can google all the stats you want but in the current environment I don't trust any recent stats. They are at best cherry-picked, like making dubious claims about "deaths in 2023" vs. serious accidents which indicate systemic problems. How can you not trust a simple stat like number of deaths / number of miles flown? Do you think there were accidents with deaths that were hidden? Not to say that there aren't reasons to worry about the slippages at Boeing, though. They betray a negligent eating into the safety margins the industry has built into design and operation of aircraft. The point is that last year, these margins held.
    - wakawaka28 3y ago
      >They are, almost by definition. They're not my anecdotes. They are things that made international news due to being so scandalous. One blogger pulls uncited stats out his ass and now I have to fight in the comment section to get people to admit the obvious. >I haven't heard of any, care to give examples? Sure. 1. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/faa-clears-boeing-737-max-fly-again/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/faa-clears-boeing-737-max-fly-a... 2. https://unitedafa.org/news/2021/5/4/airlines-rush-to-put-parked-airplanes-back-in-the-sky/ https://unitedafa.org/news/2021/5/4/airlines-rush-to-put-par... 3. https://news.delta.com/how-delta-people-are-awakening-over-550-hibernating-planes https://news.delta.com/how-delta-people-are-awakening-over-5... 4. https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/08/business/boeing-safety-quality-problems/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/08/business/boeing-safety-qualit... 5. https://fortune.com/2024/03/08/boeing-united-airlines-runs-off-taxi-tire-engine-fire/ https://fortune.com/2024/03/08/boeing-united-airlines-runs-o... 6. https://fortune.com/2023/06/01/retirement-surge-worker-gap-airlines-nurses-construction-manufacturing/ https://fortune.com/2023/06/01/retirement-surge-worker-gap-a... So you see, there is a clear pattern here. If you're waiting for these people to incriminate themselves, you're going to be waiting a long time. But they can't hide accidents for long because everyone cares about having safe planes, and every single one of these incidents has hundreds of witnesses. >How can you not trust a simple stat like number of deaths / number of miles flown? Do you think there were accidents with deaths that were hidden? I think I already explained it. Airplane crashes are very rare, so I believe the numbers can vary dramatically year by year. Planes are very variable in capacity, so the number of flights and deaths is also highly variable. I can't say for sure whether the number is reliable, but even if it is I think being fixated on that number is a bad idea. All the negligence and personnel issues are putting people in grave danger. >Incidents, not accidents. There is a difference. Yes this is true. Accident implies nobody is at fault, or this stuff is excusable. It really isn't, because it's negligence at multiple levels. On the bright side, that is easier to fix than defective plane designs. I find the presence of this article to be inorganic. Why is this dude trying to convince us that air travel is safer, when everyone can see that it isn't because of the sheer number of ridiculous failures? That's the hilarious nature of the world we live in. People committed to lying for a living put themselves in the position of having to say amusingly wrong shit all the time. I expect to eventually see a reporter telling us that planes are safe as a plane crashes in the background behind him. It would fit the 2020s perfectly.