4 ms·

It also should be considered that accidents depend on chance. It is completely fine to point out that aviation has gained an enormous standard of safety, which

It also should be considered that accidents depend on chance. It is completely fine to point out that aviation has gained an enormous standard of safety, which is the result of around of a hundred years of constant vigilance and self improvement of the industry. Nevertheless a commercial airliner, recently produced, lost a door mid flight. Under less fortunate circumstances that could have been a major disaster and the statistic would look very different. I think the worry people have is that safety standards are slipping, when it comes to building airplanes, specifically Boeing building airplanes. This is not something that would be noticeable in an accident statistic while it is actually happening, yet it is an extremely serious matter for the safety of aviation in the future.

hackernewds 3y ago
yeah airline safety in a year can be a lagging indicator. and the airlines are safe due to the safety regulations being respected and issues being broadcasted rather than in spite of it
solatic 3y ago
This exactly. Looking at the safety record to make predictions about airline safety in the future is like making a bet in 2006 that subprime mortgages should be rated AAA because the price of real estate is always increasing. The real characteristics of what lies beneath the numbers matter.
hurtuvac78 3y ago
> It also should be considered [...] on chance To be fair to the author, this is very much mentioned. And yes, luck has played a role as well. We closed out 2023 with a near-perfect record, but not without a few close calls.
User23 3y ago
> self improvement of the industry Credit is mostly due to the government here. The NTSB[1] has been a shining success. And yes, hysteresis must be considered for transport safety. [1] https://www.ntsb.gov/ https://www.ntsb.gov/
jmward01 3y ago
I believe you just made the author's point. The door thing was an issue but in reality it was an incredibly minor issue considering the scale of the industry involved and the incredible reliability we now take for granted. Oh, and the fact that nobody died. Over and over again people are fixating on the door issue because there is basically nothing else to point at. As soon as anything even minor happens panic sets in and it is irrational given the safety record the industry has worked very hard to achieve. There 'could have been' a major disaster on any flight last year, but there wasn't. If we play the 'could have been' game we will always give in to fear and panic. The fact is there wasn't. And there hasn't been for a long time. The author is right to point out that, unfortunately, there will actually be a major event some time in the future but that is because nothing is perfect. In the grand scheme of things though, the airline industry safety record is about as perfect as something can be right now so please stop panicking.
- CaptainOfCoit 3y ago
  > There 'could have been' a major disaster on any flight last year One would think there is a slightly more risk of a major disaster for flights where the door plugs haven't been properly attached, compared to others. But I guess you've looked into the numbers in order to make the strong claims you make in your comment. > can be right now so please stop panicking. Just because people write about this whole thing doesn't mean people are panicking, so please stop trying to stop people from doing something they probably aren't even doing in the first place.
- xcv123 3y ago
  > Over and over again people are fixating on the door issue because there is basically nothing else to point at The door issue revealed severe quality control issues at Boeing. How much is Boeing paying you to post this crap?
  - cooper_ganglia 3y ago
    After the Boeing whistleblower “killed himself”, I’ve just gotta assume anyone who has anything positive to say about Boeing either has a red dot on their forehead or a financial incentive (or both!).

hackernewds 3y ago

yeah airline safety in a year can be a lagging indicator. and the airlines are safe due to the safety regulations being respected and issues being broadcasted rather than in spite of it

solatic 3y ago

This exactly. Looking at the safety record to make predictions about airline safety in the future is like making a bet in 2006 that subprime mortgages should be rated AAA because the price of real estate is always increasing. The real characteristics of what lies beneath the numbers matter.

hurtuvac78 3y ago

> It also should be considered [...] on chance To be fair to the author, this is very much mentioned. And yes, luck has played a role as well. We closed out 2023 with a near-perfect record, but not without a few close calls.

User23 3y ago

> self improvement of the industry Credit is mostly due to the government here. The NTSB[1] has been a shining success. And yes, hysteresis must be considered for transport safety. [1] https://www.ntsb.gov/ https://www.ntsb.gov/

jmward01 3y ago

I believe you just made the author's point. The door thing was an issue but in reality it was an incredibly minor issue considering the scale of the industry involved and the incredible reliability we now take for granted. Oh, and the fact that nobody died. Over and over again people are fixating on the door issue because there is basically nothing else to point at. As soon as anything even minor happens panic sets in and it is irrational given the safety record the industry has worked very hard to achieve. There 'could have been' a major disaster on any flight last year, but there wasn't. If we play the 'could have been' game we will always give in to fear and panic. The fact is there wasn't. And there hasn't been for a long time. The author is right to point out that, unfortunately, there will actually be a major event some time in the future but that is because nothing is perfect. In the grand scheme of things though, the airline industry safety record is about as perfect as something can be right now so please stop panicking.

CaptainOfCoit 3y ago
> There 'could have been' a major disaster on any flight last year One would think there is a slightly more risk of a major disaster for flights where the door plugs haven't been properly attached, compared to others. But I guess you've looked into the numbers in order to make the strong claims you make in your comment. > can be right now so please stop panicking. Just because people write about this whole thing doesn't mean people are panicking, so please stop trying to stop people from doing something they probably aren't even doing in the first place.
xcv123 3y ago
> Over and over again people are fixating on the door issue because there is basically nothing else to point at The door issue revealed severe quality control issues at Boeing. How much is Boeing paying you to post this crap?
- cooper_ganglia 3y ago
  After the Boeing whistleblower “killed himself”, I’ve just gotta assume anyone who has anything positive to say about Boeing either has a red dot on their forehead or a financial incentive (or both!).