4 ms·
Is Overleaf (online LaTeX editor) making $40M+ ARR and a unicorn?
Overleaf has 11m users, if we take an assumption that 2% of its users are paid users paying $200 / year then it translates to $40m+ ARR
this is likely to be conservative, and very easy to see the ARR being above $50m+ with double digit growth.
hence, Overleaf seems to be a GOAT startup. Highly profitable, likely valued $1bn+
what am i missing?
- florid 3y ago[flagged]
- Tomte 3y agoThe market is limited. Very few people use LaTeX.
- sumly 3y agothere are 11m users. there are about double the number of Overleaf users than the Irish population. It's def not small!
- Tomte 3y agoAnd that's about it. How much do you expect them to grow? They have probably a respectable chunk of the LaTeX population already among their users. How do you expect LaTeX editing to get to a level where there is any chance to get to a billion dollars? I'm not saying Overleaf is a bad business. I'm saying it's not a unicorn.
- sumly 3y agoTheir growth is becoming explosive, growing 1m+ users per year, 10%+ YoY is pretty good at that scale Maybe you are not aware but LaTeX is a proxy on research. Are you bearish research? I am not. long LaTeX. Long Overleaf. ps: they also give exposure to crypto as many needs LaTeX editor! ---------------------------------------- 2012: Overleaf is founded 2021: 9m users 2022: 10m users 2023: 11m+ users source: https://www.overleaf.com/blog/wow-ten-million-users https://www.overleaf.com/blog/wow-ten-million-users
- fragmede 3y ago> LaTeX is a proxy on research. In Mathematics and CS, absolutely, but biology and medicine are on Microsoft Word. > Are you bearish research? I am not. You're not? Between the shrinking middle class, the rising costs of a college education, and then also everyone losing their job to AI, the future doesn't look bright for research. There's a political battle on the horizon that will determine if science and research is something we as a society do actually care about.
- fragmede 3y agoYour assumption is resting on your guess of 2%. I say it's high. If it's .01% instead, the math looks a bit more grim.
- themerone 3y agoI doubt there will ever be enough Latex users for Overleaf to become a billion dollar company. I believe that chasing billions, is a big reason why a lot of niche tech startups die, but Overleaf has the potential to be a very successful small to medium size business.
- sumly 3y ago$1bn valuation = 20x multiple? hence you need $50m ARR so you need 250k paid users at $200 / year thats 12.5m users at 2% conversion