4 ms·
You've got it mostly right but in this case there would be no racoon dog in the chain. It would be a lab leak. I'm about 30% on that, but what I say is a worker
by Vecr 3y ago
You've got it mostly right but in this case there would be no racoon dog in the chain. It would be a lab leak. I'm about 30% on that, but what I say is a worker from the lab infecting people at the wet market (or infecting someone who goes to the market, etc) takes up most of that probability.
- Scandiravian 3y agoI think I phrased myself poorly, the racoon dog part is the probability where it's a Zoonotic origin The probability of someone getting infected from a racoon dog is much higher than the joined probability required for the lab leak. Someone from the lab only infecting a single person is only a part of the probability of the lab leak, then there's the likelihood of them either going to the market or being close enough to the vendor to cause an infection at some other place I think Peter's argument is that given the amount of conditionals for that to occur it has a low likelihood compared to a racoon dog infecting just one of the people at the market that day