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> I'm familiar with old blog posts from back as far as maybe 2005 that predicted the crash in 2008 accurately. The housing crash happened in 2006, though. I su
by randomdata 3y ago
> I'm familiar with old blog posts from back as far as maybe 2005 that predicted the crash in 2008 accurately.
The housing crash happened in 2006, though. I suppose being able to predict the crash even a few months in advance is impressive, but as you're hazy about the years, it is possible that it was really 2006 and the crash had already happened, which isn't so impressive.
2008 was the securities crash. That is when the mortgage market started to crumble under the weight of housing no longer having the value it once did with mortgagers left underwater. The housing market had to crash beforehand in order for this to happen. Once one saw that the housing market had crashed, it wouldn't take too much of a Kreskin to realize securities were on the horizon.
- flextheruler 3y agoOn December 30, 2008, the Case–Shiller home price index reported the largest price drop in its history.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- derf_ 3y agoOne of my friends started a website called "The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter" to track all of the mortgage lenders going bust... in 2006. It is worth remembering that cheap credit with adjustable rates is what fueled that bubble and what made it unsustainable. A lot of the world (including Ireland) floats rates after the first 5 years of a mortgage. Whereas in the US, anyone with a pre-2022 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now has a massive paper profit due to interest rates going up that can only be realized by slowly making their required payments. That gets vaporized instantly if they sell and pay off the mortgage.