3 ms·

Proponents of what is called the "real estate cycle" say it is about 18 years long (plus or minus, and discounting its disruption due to wars), from peak to pea

by all2 3y ago

Proponents of what is called the "real estate cycle" say it is about 18 years long (plus or minus, and discounting its disruption due to wars), from peak to peak. They say the next peak is due in late '26 or early '27 (October or March, if the month matters). There are some that say they can predict the movements of land speculation based economies. I'm familiar with old blog posts from back as far as maybe 2005 that predicted the crash in 2008 accurately.

vasco 3y ago
Proponents of "millennial cycles" say it's about 1000 years long. They know as much as the 18-year cycle ones. There's guys predicting the end of the world tomorrow from an alien invasion also, and if it happens they'd have been right, but not any smarter.
- me_me_me 3y ago
  haha, exactly! The bauble bursts for a reason. and the reason that there is not enough housing available for the demand, the investment corpo is now buying up the housing as a new avenue of income and population is still growing is only pointing to prices growing indefinitely. Unless there is a population crash, people suddenly stop requiring having place to live, or someone discovers personal pocket dimensions with free houses. But I wouldnt expect it in next 10 years.
randomdata 3y ago
> I'm familiar with old blog posts from back as far as maybe 2005 that predicted the crash in 2008 accurately. The housing crash happened in 2006, though. I suppose being able to predict the crash even a few months in advance is impressive, but as you're hazy about the years, it is possible that it was really 2006 and the crash had already happened, which isn't so impressive. 2008 was the securities crash. That is when the mortgage market started to crumble under the weight of housing no longer having the value it once did with mortgagers left underwater. The housing market had to crash beforehand in order for this to happen. Once one saw that the housing market had crashed, it wouldn't take too much of a Kreskin to realize securities were on the horizon.
- flextheruler 3y ago
  On December 30, 2008, the Case–Shiller home price index reported the largest price drop in its history.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - derf_ 3y ago
    One of my friends started a website called "The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter" to track all of the mortgage lenders going bust... in 2006. It is worth remembering that cheap credit with adjustable rates is what fueled that bubble and what made it unsustainable. A lot of the world (including Ireland) floats rates after the first 5 years of a mortgage. Whereas in the US, anyone with a pre-2022 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now has a massive paper profit due to interest rates going up that can only be realized by slowly making their required payments. That gets vaporized instantly if they sell and pay off the mortgage.

by all2 3y ago

vasco 3y ago

Proponents of "millennial cycles" say it's about 1000 years long. They know as much as the 18-year cycle ones. There's guys predicting the end of the world tomorrow from an alien invasion also, and if it happens they'd have been right, but not any smarter.

me_me_me 3y ago
haha, exactly! The bauble bursts for a reason. and the reason that there is not enough housing available for the demand, the investment corpo is now buying up the housing as a new avenue of income and population is still growing is only pointing to prices growing indefinitely. Unless there is a population crash, people suddenly stop requiring having place to live, or someone discovers personal pocket dimensions with free houses. But I wouldnt expect it in next 10 years.

randomdata 3y ago

> I'm familiar with old blog posts from back as far as maybe 2005 that predicted the crash in 2008 accurately. The housing crash happened in 2006, though. I suppose being able to predict the crash even a few months in advance is impressive, but as you're hazy about the years, it is possible that it was really 2006 and the crash had already happened, which isn't so impressive. 2008 was the securities crash. That is when the mortgage market started to crumble under the weight of housing no longer having the value it once did with mortgagers left underwater. The housing market had to crash beforehand in order for this to happen. Once one saw that the housing market had crashed, it wouldn't take too much of a Kreskin to realize securities were on the horizon.

flextheruler 3y ago
On December 30, 2008, the Case–Shiller home price index reported the largest price drop in its history.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- derf_ 3y ago
  One of my friends started a website called "The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter" to track all of the mortgage lenders going bust... in 2006. It is worth remembering that cheap credit with adjustable rates is what fueled that bubble and what made it unsustainable. A lot of the world (including Ireland) floats rates after the first 5 years of a mortgage. Whereas in the US, anyone with a pre-2022 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now has a massive paper profit due to interest rates going up that can only be realized by slowly making their required payments. That gets vaporized instantly if they sell and pay off the mortgage.