I used to work at National Grid, and we had a non-parametric mixture model developed by some very smart quants. It was used to predict gas escapes, and would ta

I used to work at National Grid, and we had a non-parametric mixture model developed by some very smart quants. It was used to predict gas escapes, and would take into account the current SLA performance (aka the cost function) to predict how many engineers we would need to reserve to respond. The main variables were weather related (temperature, wind) as well as some obvious modifiers like public holidays.