> if you want to be successful when you're older, it helps to try and be successful when you're younger. It's more like: If you weren't successful yet, there's

> if you want to be successful when you're older, it helps to try and be successful when you're younger. It's more like: If you weren't successful yet, there's usually a reason why, and that reason usually doesn't disappear. People and situations can change, but big changes are statistically unlikely, which is why historical performance is predictive. But on an individual level, if the reasons for lack of success are addressed, the past becomes much less predictive of the future, because the underlying causal factors that generate outcomes have changed. That person may as well be a different person at that point.