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You’re missing the final point - the use case beyond Chat. Google has search, GMail, Android, Docs, Developer Tools, etc Google can put an LLM into everything

You’re missing the final point - the use case beyond Chat. Google has search, GMail, Android, Docs, Developer Tools, etc Google can put an LLM into everything and sell it. Not just a chatbot. OpenAI can sell theirs to consumers as a chat bot or an API. Google can out monetize them handily. The best thing Google can do (which it’s starting to do) is open up access to LLMs. And help everyone else do the same. Give it away and flood the internet with more LLaMAs, more Groks, more CLIPs, more Hermes, more Mistal, more SIGLIPS, etc. If they just drown out the competition, and turn good enough” models into a true commodity, they’ll dethrone OpenAI easily. Also no one mentions YouTube. Surely that data is a massive untapped opportunity. We saw the multi-modal abilities of Gemini today. A few years from now, and some better GPUs, and it might be able to handle video in real-time.

p1esk 3y ago
No. The best model wins. I’m currently paying $20/mo for all three leading models (GPT4, Opus, and Ultra). But in the future, when GPT5/Opus2/Ultra1.5 come out, I expect the prices to go up. So I will be choosing the best one. Whatever is on the top of the leaderboard will get my $200/mo (maybe even $2k/mo if it’s really smart).
- vineyardmike 3y ago
  This is forward looking. Models need to keep getting better. That takes research, and compute, and data. It’s not free, and it’s getting increasingly expensive. I too pay for multiple services (Gemini, Claude, CodePilot). Not everyone can or will pay $2k, or $200, or even $20 for a massive model. And most flagship models today are significantly better than models 6mo ago, which were already transformative and valuable on their own. There is a huge opportunity to market “good enough” models for tasks that don’t require the latest and greatest abilities (eg summarize this list, write an email). Arguably, we already have much smaller and simpler models for a lot of these tasks. There is a market for $20/mo assistants, but the potential market for “everything else” is much bigger - and assistants will be moving towards running locally where possible. These companies are burning billions, they’re going to need a bigger revenue prize for investors. And that’s integration of LLMs and AI into every other software product. The less of those products that run with OpenAI models, the less income OpenAI has to compete, and the harder it will be to keep up. That’s why the opportunity exists for big tech companies can flood the market with good but smaller models and ruin opportunities for cash flow to build the better models.
  - p1esk 3y ago
    If the next gen of the top models improves as much as I hope they will - we will not need any integration. It will be similar to hiring a human personal assistant. But much cheaper, even at $2k/mo. Even if this doesn’t happen with GPT5, it can very well happen with GPT6 a year later.

p1esk 3y ago

No. The best model wins. I’m currently paying $20/mo for all three leading models (GPT4, Opus, and Ultra). But in the future, when GPT5/Opus2/Ultra1.5 come out, I expect the prices to go up. So I will be choosing the best one. Whatever is on the top of the leaderboard will get my $200/mo (maybe even $2k/mo if it’s really smart).

vineyardmike 3y ago
This is forward looking. Models need to keep getting better. That takes research, and compute, and data. It’s not free, and it’s getting increasingly expensive. I too pay for multiple services (Gemini, Claude, CodePilot). Not everyone can or will pay $2k, or $200, or even $20 for a massive model. And most flagship models today are significantly better than models 6mo ago, which were already transformative and valuable on their own. There is a huge opportunity to market “good enough” models for tasks that don’t require the latest and greatest abilities (eg summarize this list, write an email). Arguably, we already have much smaller and simpler models for a lot of these tasks. There is a market for $20/mo assistants, but the potential market for “everything else” is much bigger - and assistants will be moving towards running locally where possible. These companies are burning billions, they’re going to need a bigger revenue prize for investors. And that’s integration of LLMs and AI into every other software product. The less of those products that run with OpenAI models, the less income OpenAI has to compete, and the harder it will be to keep up. That’s why the opportunity exists for big tech companies can flood the market with good but smaller models and ruin opportunities for cash flow to build the better models.
- p1esk 3y ago
  If the next gen of the top models improves as much as I hope they will - we will not need any integration. It will be similar to hiring a human personal assistant. But much cheaper, even at $2k/mo. Even if this doesn’t happen with GPT5, it can very well happen with GPT6 a year later.