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Here's the current best estimate of sea level rise (note we are on the strong emissions timeline and all fossil fuel producers plan to keep production at curren
by photochemsyn 3y ago
Here's the current best estimate of sea level rise (note we are on the strong emissions timeline and all fossil fuel producers plan to keep production at current rates for their foreseeable future of ~30 years):
> " In its 2019 report, the IPCC projected (chart above) 0.6 to 1.1 meters (1 to 3 feet) of global sea level rise by 2100 (or about 15 millimeters per year) if greenhouse gas emissions remain at high rates (RCP8.5). By 2300, seas could stand as much as 5 meters higher under the worst-case scenario. If countries do cut their emissions significantly (RCP2.6), the IPCC expects 0.3 to 0.6 meters of sea level rise by 2100."
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/148494/anticipating-future-sea-levels https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/148494/anticipating...
The lower emissions route would require the phaseout of fossil fuels over 30 years, meaning ~3.3% per year replacement rate with renewables, and even then sea level rise is only cut in half. The trigger has been pulled, the tipping point is in the past, and now we have to deal with the long term consequences, which are going to be expensive and disruptive. Pliocene, here we come!