4 ms·

A year ago, HN didnt think he was going to jail: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33908850 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33908850

swader999 3y ago
Yes, I was one of those doubters.
- arrowsmith 3y ago
  I had my doubts, but I'm glad to see they were unfounded. He's getting what he deserves.
- rsynnott 3y ago
  Why, as a matter of interest? These _really_ big, blatant frauds usually do; see Madoff, Holmes, et al. Like, it's hard to see how he'd avoid prison, certainly in the US. Other noted fraud-y bitcoin exchange guy Mark Karpelès avoided prison after conviction, but the evidence was much weaker there and they only found him guilty on fraudulently inflating MtGox's holdings (a la Donald Trump); also, that was Japan. (Fun fact; after the collapse of MtGox, Karpelès went into business with Andrew Lee, the guy who broke freenode and claims to be the Crown Prince of Korea. The world of weird internet grifters is small and incestuous.)
  - swader999 3y ago
    He was well connected, especially his parents. Huge political donor. He likely would have recieved a small sentence and somewhat validated my doubt had he not purgured and witness tampered during the trial.
    - rsynnott 3y ago
      Sure, but, like, so were Madoff and Holmes. Henry Kissinger, _Henry Kissinger_, was on Theranos's board. Rupert Murdoch invested. I don't think SBF really had anyone on that level? There is a certain point where it no longer matters; such connections would only really matter if they could get the investigation stopped. Once it goes to court, assuming it's a proper court, those sort of connections kind of cease to matter.
ceejayoz 3y ago
Yeah, it's been a bit funny to watch the goalposts move. He won't be arrested, he won't be charged, he won't go to trial, he won't be convicted, he'll get a light sentence, his political donations will get him off, etc.
- JKCalhoun 3y ago
  And I'm wondering now, who else will join him?
  - user90131313 3y ago
    everyone except Sam Trabucco of alameda , very litte mention of him
  - ceejayoz 3y ago
    Several others have already pled guilty; most notably Wang, Ellison, and Salame.
  - lawgimenez 3y ago
    That dude from Binance should be next.
paulryanrogers 3y ago
Plenty of us did think he'd go to jail. There are even examples in the linked thread.
chongli 3y ago
One person was cynical. Everyone else chimed in to correct that person: SBF was "new money" which carries no social status to protect against jail time.
- ceejayoz 3y ago
  There were dozens if not hundreds of SBF threads; the above link is just one subthread of one of those threads. In each of them, quite a few people would argue he'd never see consequences; his political donations were extensively pointed to as evidence of this. (Including, notably, Elon Musk: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1591822387267665921 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1591822387267665921)
lesuorac 3y ago
Honestly, downvoted. The top voted comment in that topic is saying he's going to jail. Just because in a forum with a gazillion people some people have a different one doesn't make it representative of the median/mean/etc. Also, it's not bad to have a counter-opinion to a group; it is bad to claim a singular opinion is that of the group without any actual justification. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33908577 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33908577
- ceejayoz 3y ago
  The top voted comment in that topic is also saying "For everyone on this thread making broad proclamations about how SBF won't go to jail", yes? Implying quite a few people held that opinion here?
  - lesuorac 3y ago
    Sure, at least a few people held that opinion. However, that isn't what the post I'm replying to said. The post I replied to used the literally lowest voted top level comment as their basis of "HN didnt think he was going to jail". They skipped over all of the higher top level comments when making their post (you have to go to the bottom of page 2 to see the one they picked). Their post is classic bad faith argument and I think it should receive a penalty (downvote).
- gjvc 3y ago
  Dishonestly, you mean.
latexr 3y ago
Your argument that HN didn’t think he was going to jail is a heavily downvoted post whose top reply says he’s going to jail?

swader999 3y ago

Yes, I was one of those doubters.

arrowsmith 3y ago
I had my doubts, but I'm glad to see they were unfounded. He's getting what he deserves.
rsynnott 3y ago
Why, as a matter of interest? These _really_ big, blatant frauds usually do; see Madoff, Holmes, et al. Like, it's hard to see how he'd avoid prison, certainly in the US. Other noted fraud-y bitcoin exchange guy Mark Karpelès avoided prison after conviction, but the evidence was much weaker there and they only found him guilty on fraudulently inflating MtGox's holdings (a la Donald Trump); also, that was Japan. (Fun fact; after the collapse of MtGox, Karpelès went into business with Andrew Lee, the guy who broke freenode and claims to be the Crown Prince of Korea. The world of weird internet grifters is small and incestuous.)
- swader999 3y ago
  He was well connected, especially his parents. Huge political donor. He likely would have recieved a small sentence and somewhat validated my doubt had he not purgured and witness tampered during the trial.
  - rsynnott 3y ago
    Sure, but, like, so were Madoff and Holmes. Henry Kissinger, _Henry Kissinger_, was on Theranos's board. Rupert Murdoch invested. I don't think SBF really had anyone on that level? There is a certain point where it no longer matters; such connections would only really matter if they could get the investigation stopped. Once it goes to court, assuming it's a proper court, those sort of connections kind of cease to matter.

ceejayoz 3y ago

Yeah, it's been a bit funny to watch the goalposts move. He won't be arrested, he won't be charged, he won't go to trial, he won't be convicted, he'll get a light sentence, his political donations will get him off, etc.

JKCalhoun 3y ago
And I'm wondering now, who else will join him?
- user90131313 3y ago
  everyone except Sam Trabucco of alameda , very litte mention of him
- ceejayoz 3y ago
  Several others have already pled guilty; most notably Wang, Ellison, and Salame.
- lawgimenez 3y ago
  That dude from Binance should be next.

paulryanrogers 3y ago

Plenty of us did think he'd go to jail. There are even examples in the linked thread.

chongli 3y ago

One person was cynical. Everyone else chimed in to correct that person: SBF was "new money" which carries no social status to protect against jail time.

ceejayoz 3y ago
There were dozens if not hundreds of SBF threads; the above link is just one subthread of one of those threads. In each of them, quite a few people would argue he'd never see consequences; his political donations were extensively pointed to as evidence of this. (Including, notably, Elon Musk: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1591822387267665921 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1591822387267665921)

lesuorac 3y ago

Honestly, downvoted. The top voted comment in that topic is saying he's going to jail. Just because in a forum with a gazillion people some people have a different one doesn't make it representative of the median/mean/etc. Also, it's not bad to have a counter-opinion to a group; it is bad to claim a singular opinion is that of the group without any actual justification. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33908577 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33908577

ceejayoz 3y ago
The top voted comment in that topic is also saying "For everyone on this thread making broad proclamations about how SBF won't go to jail", yes? Implying quite a few people held that opinion here?
- lesuorac 3y ago
  Sure, at least a few people held that opinion. However, that isn't what the post I'm replying to said. The post I replied to used the literally lowest voted top level comment as their basis of "HN didnt think he was going to jail". They skipped over all of the higher top level comments when making their post (you have to go to the bottom of page 2 to see the one they picked). Their post is classic bad faith argument and I think it should receive a penalty (downvote).
gjvc 3y ago
Dishonestly, you mean.

latexr 3y ago

Your argument that HN didn’t think he was going to jail is a heavily downvoted post whose top reply says he’s going to jail?