It's not even a question of "will it work this time?" as if we are uncertain about some future capability. We already know that it works right now. There are de

It's not even a question of "will it work this time?" as if we are uncertain about some future capability. We already know that it works right now. There are demonstrable capabilities you can just go out and use this very moment that are beyond the most optimistic hopes of 10 years ago in both the text and image domain (and video but that's unreleased). There is some tendency to discount the current state of AI because it doesn't match the level of hype - ignoring the fact that hype is non-linear and it makes no sense to speak of an appropriate level of hype anyway. All that stuff is just pop culture. If you can look past it and objectively view the current state of the art through the lens of 10 or even 5 years ago (gpt-2 era) IMHO you'll see we have enough progress to last 10 or 20 years without declaring a "winter" even if from here on out progress will be slow.