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We need thoughts like this, even though it doesn't bring any new information. The question the author puts forth is basically; will it work this time?". This is

We need thoughts like this, even though it doesn't bring any new information. The question the author puts forth is basically; will it work this time?". This is a q. that many seems to believe the answer to is, "yes". I am one of those. However, distinguishing between truly autonomous AI systems and those that are simply high-performing can become challenging. The line between the two might become blurred when performance reaches a level that seems autonomous. In this context I believe that another "AI winter" will be hard to identify in the future.

bondarchuk 3y ago
It's not even a question of "will it work this time?" as if we are uncertain about some future capability. We already know that it works right now. There are demonstrable capabilities you can just go out and use this very moment that are beyond the most optimistic hopes of 10 years ago in both the text and image domain (and video but that's unreleased). There is some tendency to discount the current state of AI because it doesn't match the level of hype - ignoring the fact that hype is non-linear and it makes no sense to speak of an appropriate level of hype anyway. All that stuff is just pop culture. If you can look past it and objectively view the current state of the art through the lens of 10 or even 5 years ago (gpt-2 era) IMHO you'll see we have enough progress to last 10 or 20 years without declaring a "winter" even if from here on out progress will be slow.
- Manheim 3y ago
  I agree, there has been exponential progress in the last two decades, and all indications suggest that this trend will persist. My point is that while autonomous AI may still be far off, it will become increasingly challenging to differentiate between an autonomous AI that operates and reprograms itself without human intervention, and a highly advanced AI system.

bondarchuk 3y ago

It's not even a question of "will it work this time?" as if we are uncertain about some future capability. We already know that it works right now. There are demonstrable capabilities you can just go out and use this very moment that are beyond the most optimistic hopes of 10 years ago in both the text and image domain (and video but that's unreleased). There is some tendency to discount the current state of AI because it doesn't match the level of hype - ignoring the fact that hype is non-linear and it makes no sense to speak of an appropriate level of hype anyway. All that stuff is just pop culture. If you can look past it and objectively view the current state of the art through the lens of 10 or even 5 years ago (gpt-2 era) IMHO you'll see we have enough progress to last 10 or 20 years without declaring a "winter" even if from here on out progress will be slow.

Manheim 3y ago
I agree, there has been exponential progress in the last two decades, and all indications suggest that this trend will persist. My point is that while autonomous AI may still be far off, it will become increasingly challenging to differentiate between an autonomous AI that operates and reprograms itself without human intervention, and a highly advanced AI system.