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The examples in the article are rather cherry-picked. Failures in Vietnam can hardly be blamed on an IBM 360 only. The Hamas attack might have surprised Israel

The examples in the article are rather cherry-picked. Failures in Vietnam can hardly be blamed on an IBM 360 only. The Hamas attack might have surprised Israel but the Iron Dome has been tech working well in recent years. The US warned anybody who wanted to listen (not many) that Russia was about to attack Ukraine. And it was a bunch of rather theoretical physicists who built the atomic bomb.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
kurthr 3y ago
Lots of failures are just human and political. Sure technology can obscure the obvious or highlight the unlikely, but it's just not that commonly influential (at least not yet, the day will come). The US even warned Russia of the attack in Moscow, but it was treated as political interference. That was almost certainly signals intelligence ignored. https://apnews.com/article/russia-intelligence-duty-to-warn-ab89b8b933c1c51b25903166951a1c7a https://apnews.com/article/russia-intelligence-duty-to-warn-...
- somenameforme 3y ago
  The warning was quite broad, claiming that some group was planning some attack on some large gathering, including concerts, in Moscow, of which there are many. And it warned Americans to avoid large gatherings for the next 48 hours. That was on March 7th. The actual attack would only take place on March 24th. Incidentally, there is speculation that the attack may have been planned for March 9th. One of the terrorists was photographed at Crocus on the 7th, and on the 9th there was a large concert by Shaman - a patriotic Russian singer who's regularly made songs glorifying the war in Ukraine, performed for soldiers in Russia's claimed territories, and so on. This would also have coincided with just before the Russian elections, which happened on the 15th. But security was extremely high during that concert - very possibly in response to the US warning. By contrast when Russia warned the US about the Boston Bomber, the warning was precise to the point of even naming him.
  - wolverine876 3y ago
    Is there evidence of the last claim?
    - foolfoolz 3y ago
      https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBREA2P02R/ https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBREA2P02R/
    - semerda 3y ago
      https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/boston-bombing-anniversary/russia-warned-u-s-about-tsarnaev-spelling-issue-let-him-n60836 https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/boston-bombing-anniversary...
  - omnibrain 3y ago
    > The warning was quite broad, claiming that some group was planning some attack on some large gathering, including concerts, in Moscow, of which there are many. And it warned Americans to avoid large gatherings for the next 48 hours. That was the public "travel advisory" by the US department of state. We don't know what the CIA told their Russian counterparts according to their "duty to warn". Insightful thread: https://twitter.com/laurae_thomas/status/1773094283320668526 https://twitter.com/laurae_thomas/status/1773094283320668526
    - somenameforme 3y ago
      The media has swapped into repulsive but predictable propaganda mode over the attack. However, as a result, more facts are coming out. And those facts suggest that nothing significant was shared beyond the travel advisory. From a recent NYTimes article [1]: --- "Aleksandr V. Bortnikov, the director of the F.S.B., emphasized Tuesday in public comments that the information the United States provided was “of a general nature.” “We reacted to this information, of course, and took appropriate measures,” he said, noting that the actions the F.S.B. took to follow up on the tip didn’t confirm it. The adversarial relationship between Washington and Moscow prevented U.S. officials from sharing any information about the plot beyond what was necessary, out of fear Russian authorities might learn their intelligence sources or methods. In its March 7 public warning, the U.S. embassy said the risk of a concert venue attack in Moscow was acute for the next 48 hours. U.S. officials say it’s possible Russian authorities pushed hard around the 48-hour warning period but later grew more relaxed and distrustful when an attack didn’t occur." It is unclear whether U.S. intelligence mistook the timing of the attack or the extremists delayed their plan upon seeing heightened security. --- It's amusing contrasting the very few facts the article provides, buried deep within it, with the framing, implications, and non sequiturs scattered through the first 60% of the article. Irrefutable and undeniable [2], all over again. [1] - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/28/world/europe/russia-concert-attack-security-failures.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/28/world/europe/russia-conce... [1] - https://archive.is/l6BYv https://archive.is/l6BYv [2] - https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/06/opinion/irrefutable-and-undeniable.html https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/06/opinion/irrefutable-and-u...
quotemstr 3y ago
Organizations commonly fail by deluding themselves. One form of self-delusion is confusing motion for progress. The author's point is that the Pentagon thinks it is funding technology but isn't getting value for its money. It's failing to do so because it lacks the will or ability to unite expertise, authority, and responsibility in a single brain. When organizations diffuse responsibility or grant authority to people unequipped to distinguish motion from progress, the result is always waste and stagnation. Effective leadership is a continual struggle against this entropic tendency of organizations towards management of appearances over world-of-atoms results. During those rare interludes in history when a strong leader manages to temporarily reverse this organizational entropy, magic happens. Consider ULA versus SpaceX or DeepMind vs. OpenAI Imagine how much further up the technology ladder we as a species would be if institutional competence were the norm, not an unstable and fleeting miracle.
EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 3y ago
>> The danger could only be warded off by adopting ... aerial and naval unmanned systems ... That was actually spot on, as recent events show.
_heimdall 3y ago
> The US warned anybody who wanted to listen (not many) that Russia was about to attack Ukraine The fact that anyone needed a warning was ridiculous. It was plain as day that Russia was committed to entering the country either immediately before or immediately after the Olympic games. You don't bother sending a large part of your navy all the way around Europe and into the Black Sea just for fun. And you definitely don't send supplies of blood to the staging area near your border if it's just a drill or a show of force.
- Invictus0 3y ago
  And yet, many people in Ukraine did not believe it until after the invasion began, because they had had numerous false alarms in the years after the Crimea seizure.
  - _heimdall 3y ago
    I can't speak to anyone in Ukraine as I don't know what was being reported there, but from the basic media reports I saw in western Europe it was clear. Russia had built up a similar sized ground force in the border in past years, either as drills or threats. Those never included major naval movements though, and definitely didn't include blood supply on the front lines. As soon as the blood showed up a week before the Olympics everyone should have known it was game on, even if naval actions alone could be written of as not a sure sign.
    - EB-Barrington 3y ago
      [dead]
    - bart_spoon 3y ago
      French intelligence was asserting the US was essentially fearmongering and that Russia would not invade right up until the moment they did.
      - _heimdall 3y ago
ZoomerCretin 3y ago
> The Hamas attack might have surprised Israel What? They were warned multiple times of an attack and chose to do nothing.
yieldcrv 3y ago
> The US warned anybody who wanted to listen (not many) that Russia was about to attack Ukraine. I had a Ukrainian model over February 21st, 2022 and I had mentioned it, she was very dismissive about the idea of invasion, and I gave a quizzical look because I wasn't sure if this was a coping mechanism, a real belief, her playing devil's advocate, or just a cultural way of responding - you know how some cultures or individuals have toxic positivity like ingrained in all their responses. To me, it was obvious, like short position, prediction-market level of obvious. 0 days to expiration options contracts obvious. I saw the buildup on the border, the chatter, what Biden was saying, how Republicans politicized it based on nothing. But I still think about her reaction, like in the future how I would respond. It seems pointless to have a differing worldview than people, and that leaves me with either complete inaction or just financial bets. I like "betting on my beliefs" as that's rewarded decently, and I'm fine with things not panning out like I predicted. Just seems more natural to have discussions and seek a shared understanding of reality. But that seems pointless nowadays.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

kurthr 3y ago

Lots of failures are just human and political. Sure technology can obscure the obvious or highlight the unlikely, but it's just not that commonly influential (at least not yet, the day will come). The US even warned Russia of the attack in Moscow, but it was treated as political interference. That was almost certainly signals intelligence ignored. https://apnews.com/article/russia-intelligence-duty-to-warn-ab89b8b933c1c51b25903166951a1c7a https://apnews.com/article/russia-intelligence-duty-to-warn-...

somenameforme 3y ago
The warning was quite broad, claiming that some group was planning some attack on some large gathering, including concerts, in Moscow, of which there are many. And it warned Americans to avoid large gatherings for the next 48 hours. That was on March 7th. The actual attack would only take place on March 24th. Incidentally, there is speculation that the attack may have been planned for March 9th. One of the terrorists was photographed at Crocus on the 7th, and on the 9th there was a large concert by Shaman - a patriotic Russian singer who's regularly made songs glorifying the war in Ukraine, performed for soldiers in Russia's claimed territories, and so on. This would also have coincided with just before the Russian elections, which happened on the 15th. But security was extremely high during that concert - very possibly in response to the US warning. By contrast when Russia warned the US about the Boston Bomber, the warning was precise to the point of even naming him.
- wolverine876 3y ago
  Is there evidence of the last claim?
  - foolfoolz 3y ago
    https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBREA2P02R/ https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBREA2P02R/
  - semerda 3y ago
    https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/boston-bombing-anniversary/russia-warned-u-s-about-tsarnaev-spelling-issue-let-him-n60836 https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/boston-bombing-anniversary...
- omnibrain 3y ago
  > The warning was quite broad, claiming that some group was planning some attack on some large gathering, including concerts, in Moscow, of which there are many. And it warned Americans to avoid large gatherings for the next 48 hours. That was the public "travel advisory" by the US department of state. We don't know what the CIA told their Russian counterparts according to their "duty to warn". Insightful thread: https://twitter.com/laurae_thomas/status/1773094283320668526 https://twitter.com/laurae_thomas/status/1773094283320668526
  - somenameforme 3y ago
    The media has swapped into repulsive but predictable propaganda mode over the attack. However, as a result, more facts are coming out. And those facts suggest that nothing significant was shared beyond the travel advisory. From a recent NYTimes article [1]: --- "Aleksandr V. Bortnikov, the director of the F.S.B., emphasized Tuesday in public comments that the information the United States provided was “of a general nature.” “We reacted to this information, of course, and took appropriate measures,” he said, noting that the actions the F.S.B. took to follow up on the tip didn’t confirm it. The adversarial relationship between Washington and Moscow prevented U.S. officials from sharing any information about the plot beyond what was necessary, out of fear Russian authorities might learn their intelligence sources or methods. In its March 7 public warning, the U.S. embassy said the risk of a concert venue attack in Moscow was acute for the next 48 hours. U.S. officials say it’s possible Russian authorities pushed hard around the 48-hour warning period but later grew more relaxed and distrustful when an attack didn’t occur." It is unclear whether U.S. intelligence mistook the timing of the attack or the extremists delayed their plan upon seeing heightened security. --- It's amusing contrasting the very few facts the article provides, buried deep within it, with the framing, implications, and non sequiturs scattered through the first 60% of the article. Irrefutable and undeniable [2], all over again. [1] - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/28/world/europe/russia-concert-attack-security-failures.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/28/world/europe/russia-conce... [1] - https://archive.is/l6BYv https://archive.is/l6BYv [2] - https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/06/opinion/irrefutable-and-undeniable.html https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/06/opinion/irrefutable-and-u...

quotemstr 3y ago

Organizations commonly fail by deluding themselves. One form of self-delusion is confusing motion for progress. The author's point is that the Pentagon thinks it is funding technology but isn't getting value for its money. It's failing to do so because it lacks the will or ability to unite expertise, authority, and responsibility in a single brain. When organizations diffuse responsibility or grant authority to people unequipped to distinguish motion from progress, the result is always waste and stagnation. Effective leadership is a continual struggle against this entropic tendency of organizations towards management of appearances over world-of-atoms results. During those rare interludes in history when a strong leader manages to temporarily reverse this organizational entropy, magic happens. Consider ULA versus SpaceX or DeepMind vs. OpenAI Imagine how much further up the technology ladder we as a species would be if institutional competence were the norm, not an unstable and fleeting miracle.

EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 3y ago

>> The danger could only be warded off by adopting ... aerial and naval unmanned systems ... That was actually spot on, as recent events show.

_heimdall 3y ago

> The US warned anybody who wanted to listen (not many) that Russia was about to attack Ukraine The fact that anyone needed a warning was ridiculous. It was plain as day that Russia was committed to entering the country either immediately before or immediately after the Olympic games. You don't bother sending a large part of your navy all the way around Europe and into the Black Sea just for fun. And you definitely don't send supplies of blood to the staging area near your border if it's just a drill or a show of force.

Invictus0 3y ago
And yet, many people in Ukraine did not believe it until after the invasion began, because they had had numerous false alarms in the years after the Crimea seizure.
- _heimdall 3y ago
  I can't speak to anyone in Ukraine as I don't know what was being reported there, but from the basic media reports I saw in western Europe it was clear. Russia had built up a similar sized ground force in the border in past years, either as drills or threats. Those never included major naval movements though, and definitely didn't include blood supply on the front lines. As soon as the blood showed up a week before the Olympics everyone should have known it was game on, even if naval actions alone could be written of as not a sure sign.
  - EB-Barrington 3y ago
    [dead]
  - bart_spoon 3y ago
    French intelligence was asserting the US was essentially fearmongering and that Russia would not invade right up until the moment they did.
    - _heimdall 3y ago

ZoomerCretin 3y ago

> The Hamas attack might have surprised Israel What? They were warned multiple times of an attack and chose to do nothing.

yieldcrv 3y ago

> The US warned anybody who wanted to listen (not many) that Russia was about to attack Ukraine. I had a Ukrainian model over February 21st, 2022 and I had mentioned it, she was very dismissive about the idea of invasion, and I gave a quizzical look because I wasn't sure if this was a coping mechanism, a real belief, her playing devil's advocate, or just a cultural way of responding - you know how some cultures or individuals have toxic positivity like ingrained in all their responses. To me, it was obvious, like short position, prediction-market level of obvious. 0 days to expiration options contracts obvious. I saw the buildup on the border, the chatter, what Biden was saying, how Republicans politicized it based on nothing. But I still think about her reaction, like in the future how I would respond. It seems pointless to have a differing worldview than people, and that leaves me with either complete inaction or just financial bets. I like "betting on my beliefs" as that's rewarded decently, and I'm fine with things not panning out like I predicted. Just seems more natural to have discussions and seek a shared understanding of reality. But that seems pointless nowadays.