I've been tracking my weight weekly and all calories (even with crude estimates in some cases) for a year and a half, and have been experimenting with exactly t

I've been tracking my weight weekly and all calories (even with crude estimates in some cases) for a year and a half, and have been experimenting with exactly this: I made a scatter plot and linear regression of average calories per day on the X axis, and weight change for that week on the Y axis. Week to week weight has extra fluctuations that make it difficult to tell what's going on, but after around 6 months of data it stabilizes, and has been consistent for any 6-month period over the last year and a half: I burn around 2200 - 2300 calories per day on average (way higher than the online estimator tools think I burn, 1600 - 1700). Knowing this I've also been reliably able to control my weight up or down at the rate I want as long as I'm looking at it for over a month span - because as above, week to week there's too much fluctuation (fullness of stomach and bowels mostly).