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I posted links because I've had this conversation many times over. The short version is: yeah, I used to be a techno-utopian too, 20 years ago. But none of thos

by titzer 3y ago

I posted links because I've had this conversation many times over. The short version is: yeah, I used to be a techno-utopian too, 20 years ago. But none of those magic technologies are realistic, we aren't on the path to them being widely deployed, the population and emissions and resource consumption are all worse, as summarized in the conclusions of the experts who put together the Earth Overshoot Day report. If you want to argue about it, take it up with them. > the invention of fertilizer Nitrogen-based fertilizers are made with hydrogen from natural gas. The agriculture industry, at its base, is like the rest of modern economy: based on drawing down a vast reservoir of non-renewal fossil fuels, with the unfortunate massive externality of altering the composition of our atmosphere and the global climate in a bad way. While technology will play a role in how humans adapt to the changes we've brought on ourselves, it's important to take realistic stock of where we are and where our trajectory is. Human population peaking will happen--the question is whether it's gradual or whether it's sudden. You don't want the global equivalent of this: https://www.geo.arizona.edu/Antevs/nats104/00lect21reindeer.html https://www.geo.arizona.edu/Antevs/nats104/00lect21reindeer....

analyte123 3y ago
It's estimated that green ammonia costs between $800 and $1500 per ton today to produce [1]. While this is higher than conventional ammonia, it is less than how much ammonia cost in the 2022 energy crisis [2] and likely to decrease further in the future. Massive amounts of nitrogen fertilizer are wasted because it's so cheap [3]. There's headroom for bringing back crop rotation of nitrogen-fixing crops. Nitrogen-fixing microbes are an emerging technology [4]. I am not convinced that we're all going to die. [1] https://itif.org/publications/2023/04/17/climate-tech-to-watch-green-ammonia/ https://itif.org/publications/2023/04/17/climate-tech-to-wat... [2] https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2022/09/fertilizer-prices-rates-and-costs-for-2023.html https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2022/09/fertilizer-prices-... [3] https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2016/06/07/nutrient-challenge-sustainable-fertilizer-management https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2016/06/07/nutrient-challeng... [4] pivotbio.com
- PaulDavisThe1st 3y ago
  Anybody who argues that "we're all going to die" is, from where I sit, clearly delusional. So that's not really a problem worth refuting. On the other hand, hundreds of millions of people dying, 10s of millions of species going extinct, massive migration causing chaos in our current understanding of "nation states", sea level rise causing the abandonment and destruction of many of the world's great cities ... these are actual likely problems. The human race will still exist in the face of them, but what will be lost?
  - anonym29 3y ago
    Hundreds of millions of people die from war, and avoiding war is a lot easier than what the (well-meaning) climate change evangelists/zealots want us to do. You don't need to destroy the entire modern economy and western civilization to avoid war. Also, why is it that the people constantly screaming about sea levels rising are the same millionaires and billionaires who own $$$$$ properties in places like Miami or Martha's Vineyard, which are ostensibly going to be underwater within their lifetime, if true? Migration can be ultimately be summed up as someone else's problem, if you have a political elite with enough backbone to represent the interests of the citizens of their own country above those of non-citizens.
    - PaulDavisThe1st 3y ago
      Your blithe dismissal of migration seems likely to me to put severely to the test. According to the US Republican Party, the USA is already suffering from an invasion that is out of control, when climate change has barely gotten started. What the US can and will do if and when it faces 100M people trying to get north is an open question. The US military will not be able to use ground force to keep out that sort of mass migration. Will it drop bombs on migrating populations? Is that what you call "backbone" ? Finally, it seems as if you think that having lots of money somehow exempts you from the same cognitive biases as everybody else, as if the behavior of the rich is an indicator of "the smart move". It never has been, and it never will be.

by titzer 3y ago

analyte123 3y ago

It's estimated that green ammonia costs between $800 and $1500 per ton today to produce [1]. While this is higher than conventional ammonia, it is less than how much ammonia cost in the 2022 energy crisis [2] and likely to decrease further in the future. Massive amounts of nitrogen fertilizer are wasted because it's so cheap [3]. There's headroom for bringing back crop rotation of nitrogen-fixing crops. Nitrogen-fixing microbes are an emerging technology [4]. I am not convinced that we're all going to die. [1] https://itif.org/publications/2023/04/17/climate-tech-to-watch-green-ammonia/ https://itif.org/publications/2023/04/17/climate-tech-to-wat... [2] https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2022/09/fertilizer-prices-rates-and-costs-for-2023.html https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2022/09/fertilizer-prices-... [3] https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2016/06/07/nutrient-challenge-sustainable-fertilizer-management https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2016/06/07/nutrient-challeng... [4] pivotbio.com

PaulDavisThe1st 3y ago
Anybody who argues that "we're all going to die" is, from where I sit, clearly delusional. So that's not really a problem worth refuting. On the other hand, hundreds of millions of people dying, 10s of millions of species going extinct, massive migration causing chaos in our current understanding of "nation states", sea level rise causing the abandonment and destruction of many of the world's great cities ... these are actual likely problems. The human race will still exist in the face of them, but what will be lost?
- anonym29 3y ago
  Hundreds of millions of people die from war, and avoiding war is a lot easier than what the (well-meaning) climate change evangelists/zealots want us to do. You don't need to destroy the entire modern economy and western civilization to avoid war. Also, why is it that the people constantly screaming about sea levels rising are the same millionaires and billionaires who own $$$$$ properties in places like Miami or Martha's Vineyard, which are ostensibly going to be underwater within their lifetime, if true? Migration can be ultimately be summed up as someone else's problem, if you have a political elite with enough backbone to represent the interests of the citizens of their own country above those of non-citizens.
  - PaulDavisThe1st 3y ago
    Your blithe dismissal of migration seems likely to me to put severely to the test. According to the US Republican Party, the USA is already suffering from an invasion that is out of control, when climate change has barely gotten started. What the US can and will do if and when it faces 100M people trying to get north is an open question. The US military will not be able to use ground force to keep out that sort of mass migration. Will it drop bombs on migrating populations? Is that what you call "backbone" ? Finally, it seems as if you think that having lots of money somehow exempts you from the same cognitive biases as everybody else, as if the behavior of the rich is an indicator of "the smart move". It never has been, and it never will be.