34 ms·

I highly recommend "The Fourth Turning is Here" by Neil Howe. According to the generational theory he co-developed (1): "The theory states that a crisis recurs

I highly recommend "The Fourth Turning is Here" by Neil Howe. According to the generational theory he co-developed (1): "The theory states that a crisis recurs in American history after every fourth generation which is followed by a recovery (high). During this recovery, institutions and communitarian values are strong. Ultimately, succeeding generational archetypes attack and weaken institutions in the name of autonomy and individualism, which eventually creates a tumultuous political environment that ripens conditions for another crisis" We're in a crisis period now. In all his books have provided the best explanation for the highs and lows in American society If you can't get to the book, just look him up in any podcast or YouTube. But really the books are where the really detailed, convincing evidence lives. (1) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generat...

resolutebat 3y ago
So the previous crises were the Civil War and the Great Depression/WW2? If so, our current crisis is barely getting started.
- passwordoops 3y ago
  Crises culminating in wars going back to the 1400s, but yes, according to the theory this crisis period was triggered by the crash in 2008 and will likely climax sometime between 2028-2035. So this decade's gonna suck, will probably involve a war (civil or great power). But I err on the side that a conflict will leave the country stronger as happened in the past (no guarantee, especially if we lose a great power conflict) and America will be a more egalitarian, prosperous place by the 2040s. Thus the cycle will begin anew and the country will suck again circa 2115
  - lobsterthief 3y ago
    It’s also quite possible none of that happens ;) We’re naturally trained to find patterns in things.
    - passwordoops 3y ago
      Yeah like how spring leads to summer leads to autumn leads to winter leads to spring. Or how the sun rises. Or how people are born, grow up, then die. Yeah naturally trained to find patterns, all of it is an illusion. Or, instead of superficial snark maybe look into the patterns people identify and see if they make any sense. This particular one does
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
- crq-yml 3y ago
  The wrinkle in the generational hypothesis is that the "when" of a crisis being felt may depend on which generation you belong to. The nature of the major trends in the US have been primarily economic: rising debt being kicked down towards younger people, asset prices rising and concentrating in fewer places. This trend favored the Boomer generation up until recently, since they had relatively more opportunities to get assets when they were young, many of them had long lives in good health, and they were still occupying job positions by the time their children had finished education, setting the stage for the younger cohorts being educated for things they couldn't be hired for. Now that the Boomers are exiting the workforce there's a different kind of turmoil taking place as the economy is trying to put different hands at the wheel. But it's not exactly a new crisis for someone who entered the workforce in the 2010's, it's just incrementally more intense and their sense of crisis may have hit at graduation or even before. In contrast it looks downright apocalyptic to older people who had a long career insulated from the effects of the trends only to abruptly retire into a world of Zoom meetings, high inflation, and understaffed healthcare, while the national leaders are suddenly making radical policy moves that offend their sensibilities. The stage for crisis is properly set at this point because every generational cohort seems to recognize it as a crisis that needs a reframed social contract, instead of a "that's your problem, not mine". That kind of consensus is the dividing factor. But the specific grievances are a thing that were building up for decades.
  - passwordoops 3y ago
    Exactly. In his interviews he mentioned a lot of people at the time asked if 9/11 was the triggering of a crisis (the hypothesis had just been published in 1999) and no, it just kind of went by because the generations weren't aligned. Kind of like WW1. Was a major disruptor, but society continued down the same trajectory

resolutebat 3y ago

So the previous crises were the Civil War and the Great Depression/WW2? If so, our current crisis is barely getting started.

passwordoops 3y ago
Crises culminating in wars going back to the 1400s, but yes, according to the theory this crisis period was triggered by the crash in 2008 and will likely climax sometime between 2028-2035. So this decade's gonna suck, will probably involve a war (civil or great power). But I err on the side that a conflict will leave the country stronger as happened in the past (no guarantee, especially if we lose a great power conflict) and America will be a more egalitarian, prosperous place by the 2040s. Thus the cycle will begin anew and the country will suck again circa 2115
- lobsterthief 3y ago
  It’s also quite possible none of that happens ;) We’re naturally trained to find patterns in things.
  - passwordoops 3y ago
    Yeah like how spring leads to summer leads to autumn leads to winter leads to spring. Or how the sun rises. Or how people are born, grow up, then die. Yeah naturally trained to find patterns, all of it is an illusion. Or, instead of superficial snark maybe look into the patterns people identify and see if they make any sense. This particular one does
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
crq-yml 3y ago
The wrinkle in the generational hypothesis is that the "when" of a crisis being felt may depend on which generation you belong to. The nature of the major trends in the US have been primarily economic: rising debt being kicked down towards younger people, asset prices rising and concentrating in fewer places. This trend favored the Boomer generation up until recently, since they had relatively more opportunities to get assets when they were young, many of them had long lives in good health, and they were still occupying job positions by the time their children had finished education, setting the stage for the younger cohorts being educated for things they couldn't be hired for. Now that the Boomers are exiting the workforce there's a different kind of turmoil taking place as the economy is trying to put different hands at the wheel. But it's not exactly a new crisis for someone who entered the workforce in the 2010's, it's just incrementally more intense and their sense of crisis may have hit at graduation or even before. In contrast it looks downright apocalyptic to older people who had a long career insulated from the effects of the trends only to abruptly retire into a world of Zoom meetings, high inflation, and understaffed healthcare, while the national leaders are suddenly making radical policy moves that offend their sensibilities. The stage for crisis is properly set at this point because every generational cohort seems to recognize it as a crisis that needs a reframed social contract, instead of a "that's your problem, not mine". That kind of consensus is the dividing factor. But the specific grievances are a thing that were building up for decades.
- passwordoops 3y ago
  Exactly. In his interviews he mentioned a lot of people at the time asked if 9/11 was the triggering of a crisis (the hypothesis had just been published in 1999) and no, it just kind of went by because the generations weren't aligned. Kind of like WW1. Was a major disruptor, but society continued down the same trajectory