4 ms·

Knowing agriculture a little, it's not going to be "replaced by" but rather "in addition to". These tulip farms will continue to use as much pesticides and herb

by berkes 3y ago

Knowing agriculture a little, it's not going to be "replaced by" but rather "in addition to". These tulip farms will continue to use as much pesticides and herbicides as before regardless of mechanical pest controls. It's just too cheap to use chemicals, and the risk for not using it too big. A local farmer told me that if they don't use herbicides on timed basis (so even if the farmer can see there's no weeds with his eyes and experience) their insurances would go up so much that they could pay twice the amount of chemicals for that insurance rate rise.

ajmurmann 3y ago
Seems like there is gonna be opportunity for another insurance company to compete by understanding new technology and offer new policies that acknowledge that.
- berkes 3y ago
  If that were the case, there would have been insurance companies that understood statistics and deep, local and domain- knowledge of farmers on what is needed to mitigate or predict risks. I'm quite sure insurance companies know this extremely well. But either choose to stay on the safe side because of extreme risk aversion and quite certainly because of monopolies or vendor-lock-in.
  - ProllyInfamous 3y ago
    >there would have been insurance companies that understood statistics and deep, local and domain- knowledge Sounds like a perfect job for an AI-actuary-based insurance company.
taneq 3y ago
> These tulip farms will continue to use as much pesticides and herbicides as before regardless of mechanical pest controls. Not if robots are cheaper than the poisons. Your point about insurance is interesting, the industry would do a massive backflip on pesticides if some robotics company managed to convince insurance companies that using their product was less risky than chemical means.
- berkes 3y ago
  Organic gardening is the third "alternative", and it has been proven to work, work well, refined for hundreds of thousands of years, is well known and the risks are known extremely well. It's not robotics or chemical, that's a false dichotomy. And yes, I am aware of the "tradeoffs" of organic farming. But it still is a viable business plan, often the farmers' margins (at least in west EU) are much higher than "chemical farming". And no, not always is the yield lower. Nor are the crops it always more expensive. And no, the common conception that "we cannot feed the world with organic farming" is also disproven.
  - evandijk70 3y ago
    Do you have any references to these claims?
  - lukeschlather 3y ago
    Organic farming still uses "organic" pesticides like copper. The real falsehood is that organic farming is perfectly nontoxic and safe. Looking forward to having more advanced robots, we could start seeing a lot more permaculture. Organic farming not only relies on pesticides and herbicides but also on monocrops and tilling all of which add up to a lot of problems. Robotic tending could eventually allow more diverse permaculture to take over.
- unregistereddev 3y ago
  So you just need a robotics company large enough to have some industry clout. https://www.deere.com/en/sprayers/see-spray-ultimate/ https://www.deere.com/en/sprayers/see-spray-ultimate/
- fire_lake 3y ago
  Reminds me of “once we pay for the service, they won’t sell our data”. No, now you pay for the service AND they sell your data. Companies will take every edge they can legally hold.
j-a-a-p 3y ago
> These tulip farms will continue to use as much pesticides and herbicides as before regardless of mechanical pest controls. I happen to have worked in that industry. And I do not want justify the environmental burden of floriculture. It is a far from green industry using lots of chemicals and energy. But the tulip business you mention here is also remarkably high tech. It is unfair to frame these companies as they would always choose chemicals against innovation. Au contraire I would say, it is maybe even the most innovative branche of agriculture.
fire_lake 3y ago
Hopefully the EU can increase pesticide regulation in step with robotics advancements by industry.

by berkes 3y ago

ajmurmann 3y ago

Seems like there is gonna be opportunity for another insurance company to compete by understanding new technology and offer new policies that acknowledge that.

berkes 3y ago
If that were the case, there would have been insurance companies that understood statistics and deep, local and domain- knowledge of farmers on what is needed to mitigate or predict risks. I'm quite sure insurance companies know this extremely well. But either choose to stay on the safe side because of extreme risk aversion and quite certainly because of monopolies or vendor-lock-in.
- ProllyInfamous 3y ago
  >there would have been insurance companies that understood statistics and deep, local and domain- knowledge Sounds like a perfect job for an AI-actuary-based insurance company.

taneq 3y ago

> These tulip farms will continue to use as much pesticides and herbicides as before regardless of mechanical pest controls. Not if robots are cheaper than the poisons. Your point about insurance is interesting, the industry would do a massive backflip on pesticides if some robotics company managed to convince insurance companies that using their product was less risky than chemical means.

berkes 3y ago
Organic gardening is the third "alternative", and it has been proven to work, work well, refined for hundreds of thousands of years, is well known and the risks are known extremely well. It's not robotics or chemical, that's a false dichotomy. And yes, I am aware of the "tradeoffs" of organic farming. But it still is a viable business plan, often the farmers' margins (at least in west EU) are much higher than "chemical farming". And no, not always is the yield lower. Nor are the crops it always more expensive. And no, the common conception that "we cannot feed the world with organic farming" is also disproven.
- evandijk70 3y ago
  Do you have any references to these claims?
- lukeschlather 3y ago
  Organic farming still uses "organic" pesticides like copper. The real falsehood is that organic farming is perfectly nontoxic and safe. Looking forward to having more advanced robots, we could start seeing a lot more permaculture. Organic farming not only relies on pesticides and herbicides but also on monocrops and tilling all of which add up to a lot of problems. Robotic tending could eventually allow more diverse permaculture to take over.
unregistereddev 3y ago
So you just need a robotics company large enough to have some industry clout. https://www.deere.com/en/sprayers/see-spray-ultimate/ https://www.deere.com/en/sprayers/see-spray-ultimate/
fire_lake 3y ago
Reminds me of “once we pay for the service, they won’t sell our data”. No, now you pay for the service AND they sell your data. Companies will take every edge they can legally hold.

j-a-a-p 3y ago

> These tulip farms will continue to use as much pesticides and herbicides as before regardless of mechanical pest controls. I happen to have worked in that industry. And I do not want justify the environmental burden of floriculture. It is a far from green industry using lots of chemicals and energy. But the tulip business you mention here is also remarkably high tech. It is unfair to frame these companies as they would always choose chemicals against innovation. Au contraire I would say, it is maybe even the most innovative branche of agriculture.

fire_lake 3y ago

Hopefully the EU can increase pesticide regulation in step with robotics advancements by industry.