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I found this Twitter account last posted to in 2014. https://twitter.com/lebedbiz https://twitter.com/lebedbiz I checked a good few of the stocks he listed. I

I found this Twitter account last posted to in 2014. https://twitter.com/lebedbiz https://twitter.com/lebedbiz I checked a good few of the stocks he listed. I figured he would have struck a lucky score at one point but he seemed to have an uncanny ability to always pick losing stocks. I was hoping for a happy ending like how many of the people I played Runescape with who hosted dicing games, speculated and flipped in-game assets became successful quants irl, but he sure did seem to just pick a gimmick and roll with it, never evolving or changing.

Solvitieg 3y ago
Is it safe to assume they transitioned to become an anonymous crypto trader around this time?
shnock 3y ago
Really? Merching in RS3 always seemed to be more of a pump and dump than anything that overlapped with real life quantitative investing
- Frummy 3y ago
  If theyre working as quants now, they were probably around before RS3 as well. I remember daytrading the grand exchange personally. There were plenty of profitable patterns that were basically guaranteed to work. I can see how someone who could program at the time could get much higher volumes by automating multiple accounts. The problem was finding profitable new trades at different levels of wealth, what worked at one volume would have to be replaced eventually. I never got into clans and such. I got scammed a few times especially memorable was a scam with a sort of party of social proof around the scammer and they would rinse repeat in every world, some things were so organised that you got really surprised by the intricacy of the scams.
  - mewpmewp2 3y ago
    RuneScape really taught about scams, huh.
- cmcaleer 3y ago
  If you were one of the rubes falling for Smoking Mils sure. But there was always plenty of money to be made from placing stink orders for high volume items though, to name one very basic strategy. When you have a big enough quantity for an in-demand, relatively unvolatile asset like prayer pots you can essentially just have orders in where you get paid by the spread from bigger orders and be the main market maker. There wasn't exactly a CLOB but it was pretty easy to figure out the spread by buying 100 then selling it back for max/min price. Other players would treat the GE like an NPC where they'd dump items in mass at 1gp just to get it all sold - knowing and taking advantage of this was (and prob still is) free money. There were some very fun strategies where like, you would submit a question for the QnA proposing some use for $item around high alch price (e.g. 'the dark bow used to be such an iconic weapon but now it's useless and feels pathetic selling for 70k. with the new boss coming out, could we see a new use for these? :((') and when it got read out and if they liked the idea, speculators would buy these in bulk and especially if they weren't a very liquid item you would cash in, with minimal downside if you don't get read. Jmods caught on to this though, lol. I think the natural scepticism it teaches makes for a good quant too. I remember seeing a Twitter thread like, 'If I have a coin and show you the two sides, then flip 19 heads in a row, what price should you accept to bet that it would be heads again?' with the options all being well >50%. The comments were all like, 'Well based on Laplace's rule of succession...', '...based on a beta distribution with a uniform prior...', etc., all theoretically correct stuff if we live in a mathematically perfect world. The Runescape-brained would give you the real-life most likely answer: 'That coin is rigged, dude. I'm going to find better value elsewhere.'
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
seadan83 3y ago
Not a surprise it is loser stocks. The pump and dumper wants cheap, low volume stocks, preferably those with a plausible turnaround story. The pump and dumper does not disclose holdings or the prospect for them to acquire or sell. Hard to then know if the shilling was unsuccessful or not.
jldugger 3y ago
Not sure how it came to be that every article publishes this kids name, but I'm starting to find a tragic arc to this guy's life. Dead twitter account, no LinkedIn account, and apparently was booked for narcotics possession in 2016. All I found was an arrest record[1]. Maybe he was just on some bad meds and the police caught him before things got worse, maybe they made the whole thing up, but many citations from his Wikipedia page(!) 404 now, and I have my theories as to why. [1]: https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/passaic/wayne/2016/03/24/wayne-police-department-blotter-march-24-2016/94965126/ https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/passaic/wayne/2016/03...
bayouborne 3y ago
Sep 3, 2012 I Am Legend.

Solvitieg 3y ago

Is it safe to assume they transitioned to become an anonymous crypto trader around this time?

shnock 3y ago

Really? Merching in RS3 always seemed to be more of a pump and dump than anything that overlapped with real life quantitative investing

Frummy 3y ago
If theyre working as quants now, they were probably around before RS3 as well. I remember daytrading the grand exchange personally. There were plenty of profitable patterns that were basically guaranteed to work. I can see how someone who could program at the time could get much higher volumes by automating multiple accounts. The problem was finding profitable new trades at different levels of wealth, what worked at one volume would have to be replaced eventually. I never got into clans and such. I got scammed a few times especially memorable was a scam with a sort of party of social proof around the scammer and they would rinse repeat in every world, some things were so organised that you got really surprised by the intricacy of the scams.
- mewpmewp2 3y ago
  RuneScape really taught about scams, huh.
cmcaleer 3y ago
If you were one of the rubes falling for Smoking Mils sure. But there was always plenty of money to be made from placing stink orders for high volume items though, to name one very basic strategy. When you have a big enough quantity for an in-demand, relatively unvolatile asset like prayer pots you can essentially just have orders in where you get paid by the spread from bigger orders and be the main market maker. There wasn't exactly a CLOB but it was pretty easy to figure out the spread by buying 100 then selling it back for max/min price. Other players would treat the GE like an NPC where they'd dump items in mass at 1gp just to get it all sold - knowing and taking advantage of this was (and prob still is) free money. There were some very fun strategies where like, you would submit a question for the QnA proposing some use for $item around high alch price (e.g. 'the dark bow used to be such an iconic weapon but now it's useless and feels pathetic selling for 70k. with the new boss coming out, could we see a new use for these? :((') and when it got read out and if they liked the idea, speculators would buy these in bulk and especially if they weren't a very liquid item you would cash in, with minimal downside if you don't get read. Jmods caught on to this though, lol. I think the natural scepticism it teaches makes for a good quant too. I remember seeing a Twitter thread like, 'If I have a coin and show you the two sides, then flip 19 heads in a row, what price should you accept to bet that it would be heads again?' with the options all being well >50%. The comments were all like, 'Well based on Laplace's rule of succession...', '...based on a beta distribution with a uniform prior...', etc., all theoretically correct stuff if we live in a mathematically perfect world. The Runescape-brained would give you the real-life most likely answer: 'That coin is rigged, dude. I'm going to find better value elsewhere.'

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

seadan83 3y ago

Not a surprise it is loser stocks. The pump and dumper wants cheap, low volume stocks, preferably those with a plausible turnaround story. The pump and dumper does not disclose holdings or the prospect for them to acquire or sell. Hard to then know if the shilling was unsuccessful or not.

jldugger 3y ago

Not sure how it came to be that every article publishes this kids name, but I'm starting to find a tragic arc to this guy's life. Dead twitter account, no LinkedIn account, and apparently was booked for narcotics possession in 2016. All I found was an arrest record[1]. Maybe he was just on some bad meds and the police caught him before things got worse, maybe they made the whole thing up, but many citations from his Wikipedia page(!) 404 now, and I have my theories as to why. [1]: https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/passaic/wayne/2016/03/24/wayne-police-department-blotter-march-24-2016/94965126/ https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/passaic/wayne/2016/03...

bayouborne 3y ago

Sep 3, 2012 I Am Legend.