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I don’t doubt you, but it’s also true that there is no simple ‘ethnic Russian equals pro Russian/Putin’ equation. Take the Azov Battalion. Yes I know, an unplea

by simonh 3y ago

I don’t doubt you, but it’s also true that there is no simple ‘ethnic Russian equals pro Russian/Putin’ equation. Take the Azov Battalion. Yes I know, an unpleasant, even despicable bunch of anti-Russian racists. However before 2022 they overwhelmingly consisted of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers, recruited in the ethnic Russian regions. Their web site was in Russian, most of their literature in Russian. How come? Being ethnic Russian doesn’t mean you’re a huge fan of the Moscow system, and it doesn’t mean you want to be ruled by Putin. When Donetsk and Luhansk voted in the independence referendum in the 90s both regions voted over 80% for Ukrainian independence. That’s not possible if a majority of ethnic Russians hadn’t been in favour of it. Vast swathes of the east and south of Ukraine, where civilian areas were shelled to rubble by Russia, were populated by a high proportion of ethnic Russians. Look at the drone footage of the rows of apartment blocks shelled out in Mariupol, a city 50% ethnic Russian and overwhelmingly Russian speaking. The Narative of ethnic Russian liberation is far from simple.

thriftwy 3y ago
Independence referendum of 1991 was about whether UkrSSR will admit the dissolution of already defunct USSR or if it will continue its quasi-state existence. Even then they didn't get everybody on board. It was not a referendum on "independence from Russia" because UkrSSR and RSFSR were distinct entites for 60 years already. Then again, people could change their mind about being a part of the state of Ukraine.
- simonh 3y ago
  The (translated) referendum question was “Do you support the Act of Declaration of Independence of Ukraine?”. People can change their minds, but there’s no evidence that significantly happened, or that over 30% of the populations of those regions did so.
  - thriftwy 3y ago
    Independence from who? The evidence that it has significantly happened is the 2014 LDNR referendums and the following harsh resistance of Donbas militias against Ukrainian forces (absolute majority of the soldiets being locals since how would you convince a large number of Russians to go and risk their lives in an unrecognized state). Donbas population is basically miners bearing automatic weapons. Not too easy to control if they oppose you on a fundamental level.

by simonh 3y ago

thriftwy 3y ago

Independence referendum of 1991 was about whether UkrSSR will admit the dissolution of already defunct USSR or if it will continue its quasi-state existence. Even then they didn't get everybody on board. It was not a referendum on "independence from Russia" because UkrSSR and RSFSR were distinct entites for 60 years already. Then again, people could change their mind about being a part of the state of Ukraine.

simonh 3y ago
The (translated) referendum question was “Do you support the Act of Declaration of Independence of Ukraine?”. People can change their minds, but there’s no evidence that significantly happened, or that over 30% of the populations of those regions did so.
- thriftwy 3y ago
  Independence from who? The evidence that it has significantly happened is the 2014 LDNR referendums and the following harsh resistance of Donbas militias against Ukrainian forces (absolute majority of the soldiets being locals since how would you convince a large number of Russians to go and risk their lives in an unrecognized state). Donbas population is basically miners bearing automatic weapons. Not too easy to control if they oppose you on a fundamental level.