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> or entered with the purpose of making a definitive end of it at the original border. There is a current argument that the tactic is absolutely necessary beca

> or entered with the purpose of making a definitive end of it at the original border. There is a current argument that the tactic is absolutely necessary because the Russian structure absolutely relies on every level from the bottom to the top to be able to reasonably lie about how things are going. If you do nothing, they obviously win; if you do too much, you actually can lose because it is no longer possible for the lies to work properly to prevent more drastic moves. If you do what seems to be happening right now, the lies keep the machine turning at its current pace and they will drive themselves right off the cliff in no time. It was done economically to the USSR and the same thing appears to be happening right now more directly, militarily. It will seem to be this unstoppable force until the last moment, when it all just spectacularly falls apart in one way or another.

ajuc 3y ago
It's pointless. Russians don't give a fuck about lies being believable - neither the govenernment not the people. They were indoctrinated to be cynical passive conformists for their whole lives, and their parents and grandparents likewise. They will go along with whatever, as long as they don't starve. There's no point counting on them protesting, and there's no point trying "not to provoke them". They just aren't a factor. West needs to ignore all that pussyfooting and send enough resources to make the war materially unsustainable for putin. That's all that matters.
- apaprocki 3y ago
  It's not about lies to the people -- I didn't say it was about their control on society through media. I agree with you that the people are not the ones that are going to overthrow the government. I'm merely observing that the compounding negative effect of this domestic "lie chain" is a damage multiplier. It's myopically about one's lies to their superior. At each level, the situation is portrayed less seriously by some amount to make it less "bad" for the individual. That continues up the chain so that at each point, it doesn't make sense for some drastic overreaction to happen. By the time it reaches the top, it's very divorced from reality. Case in point, given the events of last evening -- the Black Sea Fleet is practically getting erased with no real change in behavior because it is happening slowly. I'm sure the story as it makes its way up the ranks each time is that the damage was minor, it's being repaired, only a few casualties, etc. Acknowledging how bad the situation is to your superiors is acknowledging how effective naval drones and modern missiles are and how bad your harbor protection and air defense is. Again, they only care about money, not their people. Even in light of clear videos showing air defense being powerless to stop these attacks, they'll deny, deny, deny because they still have paying customers for their technology. Ukraine is taking out their refinery capacity and making those paying weapons customers think twice and change long-term behavior. (See yesterday's story about how India isn't going to get its planned S-400 delivery.)
  - ajuc 3y ago
    I'm very pessimistic about such interpretations. They seem to me to be mostly western wishful thinking so I'm trying to consciously correct for that. Yes, russians are incompetent, always have been. But most armies are to some degree, and they have been operating under strict darwinian selection for the last 2 years. They adapted to a lot of early tactics that no longer work. And they have time to adapt if the west doesn't help Ukraine finish the job early enough. What west does is microdosing the antibiotics with pauses between the doses instead of pumping the necessary dose for 2 weeks and solving the problem. It's VERY irresponsible. As for naval situation - Russian fleets have always been a joke, the only thing that matters is whether they can block the Black See (they can't), and whether they can use the ships to launch missiles (they can, but if they can't - they can just use ground and air launchers). So there's not much potential wins for Ukraine left there, even if they destroy the whole black see fleet. From Russian POV it's just more sunk costs (pardon the pun) and more PR problems. They aren't very sensitive to either. Ultimately the war will end when Russia can't afford to keep its army in Ukraine or when it loses its army. The first one is easier to achieve, but that takes mass attacks on Russian infrastructure. Not 15 attacks but 100 or 1000. Repeated over and over, so that damage can't be repaired. The west seems to be very restrictive with how Ukrainians can use the west-provided weapons, and that makes this approach unlikely to work in short term. So then the last possible strategy is just hoping Russian economy will collapse. Which it will, don't get me wrong - but in Russia it's hard to distinguish collapsed and uncollapsed economy anyway.
    - apaprocki 3y ago
      We're in broad agreement. The only unknown is that of timing. Russia will not win. The collective "West" is helping very deeply, and part of the problem has been getting everyone closer to the conflict to realize there are no options other than force. That has taken much longer than it should have. (e.g., France's recent change in tone.) It is not such a doom-and-gloom picture -- Poland is leading the charge in terms of ramping up modern military capacity. Every participant nation is chipping in heavily to get the job done. More expensive air defense systems will give way to cheaper alternatives (F-16s, air drones, eventually lasers to neutralize "slow" drone and cruise missile threats), freeing them up to focus on ballistic threats. The front is going to be increasingly taken over by "unmanned" systems -- mine laying robots, loitering vehicles, automated fire vehicles/stations. Systematic destruction of A-50s is paving the way for fighters to operate with much less risk, taking out bomber threat and continuing to use HARMs to further reduce risk from S-300/400s and EW. Ukraine has been so effective in deep targeting of refineries, factories, airfields, at some point it will be time to turn attention to creative ways of stopping the air-launched threat from Olenya and others at the source. These things are won by logistics, and relying on continual delivered aid is a losing strategy. Everyone wants it to be over yesterday, but the only thing that will counter Russia's ability to whip a mobilization economy faster is collective sustainable local production done right. Russia was counting on the US, UK, etc. losing focus through election cycles, but the Eastern Bloc and Baltics will not lose focus. That was a big hurdle to overcome, and the leadership exhibited there helps ease fears that the outcome will solely be determined by what the US does or doesn't do. You couldn't have convinced me earlier Germany would be the ones dragging their feet and France would unambiguously flex muscle, but here we are.

ajuc 3y ago

It's pointless. Russians don't give a fuck about lies being believable - neither the govenernment not the people. They were indoctrinated to be cynical passive conformists for their whole lives, and their parents and grandparents likewise. They will go along with whatever, as long as they don't starve. There's no point counting on them protesting, and there's no point trying "not to provoke them". They just aren't a factor. West needs to ignore all that pussyfooting and send enough resources to make the war materially unsustainable for putin. That's all that matters.

apaprocki 3y ago
It's not about lies to the people -- I didn't say it was about their control on society through media. I agree with you that the people are not the ones that are going to overthrow the government. I'm merely observing that the compounding negative effect of this domestic "lie chain" is a damage multiplier. It's myopically about one's lies to their superior. At each level, the situation is portrayed less seriously by some amount to make it less "bad" for the individual. That continues up the chain so that at each point, it doesn't make sense for some drastic overreaction to happen. By the time it reaches the top, it's very divorced from reality. Case in point, given the events of last evening -- the Black Sea Fleet is practically getting erased with no real change in behavior because it is happening slowly. I'm sure the story as it makes its way up the ranks each time is that the damage was minor, it's being repaired, only a few casualties, etc. Acknowledging how bad the situation is to your superiors is acknowledging how effective naval drones and modern missiles are and how bad your harbor protection and air defense is. Again, they only care about money, not their people. Even in light of clear videos showing air defense being powerless to stop these attacks, they'll deny, deny, deny because they still have paying customers for their technology. Ukraine is taking out their refinery capacity and making those paying weapons customers think twice and change long-term behavior. (See yesterday's story about how India isn't going to get its planned S-400 delivery.)
- ajuc 3y ago
  I'm very pessimistic about such interpretations. They seem to me to be mostly western wishful thinking so I'm trying to consciously correct for that. Yes, russians are incompetent, always have been. But most armies are to some degree, and they have been operating under strict darwinian selection for the last 2 years. They adapted to a lot of early tactics that no longer work. And they have time to adapt if the west doesn't help Ukraine finish the job early enough. What west does is microdosing the antibiotics with pauses between the doses instead of pumping the necessary dose for 2 weeks and solving the problem. It's VERY irresponsible. As for naval situation - Russian fleets have always been a joke, the only thing that matters is whether they can block the Black See (they can't), and whether they can use the ships to launch missiles (they can, but if they can't - they can just use ground and air launchers). So there's not much potential wins for Ukraine left there, even if they destroy the whole black see fleet. From Russian POV it's just more sunk costs (pardon the pun) and more PR problems. They aren't very sensitive to either. Ultimately the war will end when Russia can't afford to keep its army in Ukraine or when it loses its army. The first one is easier to achieve, but that takes mass attacks on Russian infrastructure. Not 15 attacks but 100 or 1000. Repeated over and over, so that damage can't be repaired. The west seems to be very restrictive with how Ukrainians can use the west-provided weapons, and that makes this approach unlikely to work in short term. So then the last possible strategy is just hoping Russian economy will collapse. Which it will, don't get me wrong - but in Russia it's hard to distinguish collapsed and uncollapsed economy anyway.
  - apaprocki 3y ago
    We're in broad agreement. The only unknown is that of timing. Russia will not win. The collective "West" is helping very deeply, and part of the problem has been getting everyone closer to the conflict to realize there are no options other than force. That has taken much longer than it should have. (e.g., France's recent change in tone.) It is not such a doom-and-gloom picture -- Poland is leading the charge in terms of ramping up modern military capacity. Every participant nation is chipping in heavily to get the job done. More expensive air defense systems will give way to cheaper alternatives (F-16s, air drones, eventually lasers to neutralize "slow" drone and cruise missile threats), freeing them up to focus on ballistic threats. The front is going to be increasingly taken over by "unmanned" systems -- mine laying robots, loitering vehicles, automated fire vehicles/stations. Systematic destruction of A-50s is paving the way for fighters to operate with much less risk, taking out bomber threat and continuing to use HARMs to further reduce risk from S-300/400s and EW. Ukraine has been so effective in deep targeting of refineries, factories, airfields, at some point it will be time to turn attention to creative ways of stopping the air-launched threat from Olenya and others at the source. These things are won by logistics, and relying on continual delivered aid is a losing strategy. Everyone wants it to be over yesterday, but the only thing that will counter Russia's ability to whip a mobilization economy faster is collective sustainable local production done right. Russia was counting on the US, UK, etc. losing focus through election cycles, but the Eastern Bloc and Baltics will not lose focus. That was a big hurdle to overcome, and the leadership exhibited there helps ease fears that the outcome will solely be determined by what the US does or doesn't do. You couldn't have convinced me earlier Germany would be the ones dragging their feet and France would unambiguously flex muscle, but here we are.