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Possible that this could explain some of the recent unexplained ocean warming?
by __xor_eax_eax 3y ago
Possible that this could explain some of the recent unexplained ocean warming?
- organsnyder 3y agoThe warming isn't localized—or even more prevalent—in that area.
- __xor_eax_eax 3y agoHmm. Yea, you would expect to see localized warming I imagine
- 0xB31B1B 3y agoThe ocean warming is well explained. It’s the result of removing sulfur compounds from ship fuels. This change reduces could cover and increases the flux of solar radiation into the ocean causing heating. This is well agreed upon by scientists and not controversial. Cloud cover reduction is measurable and clearly visible in pre and post 2021 satellite imagery where shipping lanes have cloud trails before the change and do not have cloud trails now.
- organsnyder 3y agoHow did the ocean stay cool before steamships were invented?
- Kuinox 3y agoThere was less CO2 in the air.
- eptcyka 3y agoThere was less CO2 in the atmosphere, which increased its capacity to cool off the oceans.
- energybored11 3y agoThey did not.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- samatman 3y agoWe don't know that they did. It takes satellites to get a representative measure of ocean temperatures worldwide. There's some noisy data from ships dipping mercury thermometers into the oceans, but this was hardly a widespread practice.
- __xor_eax_eax 3y agoI've heard that theory is pretty contentious. I'm certainly not an expert though
- mecsred 3y agoActual information for those interested. https://www.nasa.gov/missions/aqua/nasa-study-finds-evidence-that-fuel-regulation-reduced-air-pollution-from-shipping/ https://www.nasa.gov/missions/aqua/nasa-study-finds-evidence...
- uoaei 3y agoSo the change in regulation happened in 2020. How then does this hypothesis explain changes in ocean temperature before then? What is the relative magnitude of the correction vs CO2-only-based models?
- mecsred 3y agoIt doesn't. This model isn't an alternative to CO2 based atmospheric warming models, it just explains a very recent trend in ocean temperature. This branched off a discussion about recent temperature trends. Everyone asking questions about general long term trends either aren't reading or are starting a different conversation.
- uoaei 3y agoGP explicitly referenced this phenomenon in an unqualified manner when addressing ocean warming. If they wanted to be understood the first time, they should have clarified the context.
- btilly 3y agoIf you check, the GP said "the recent unexplained warming". That's sufficient qualification to say that this is the explanation. Of course the sudden recent spike is on top of an existing warming trend. And that trends is due to long-term trends from CO2.
- Scarblac 3y agoWhy would the extraordinary heating effect start in March 2023 then?
- chucksta 3y agoNorth America is done going through most of its winter phase
- groby_b 3y agoAh yes, global ocean temperatures are famously tied to winter on a single continent.
- btilly 3y agoShip tracks are concentrated to an from that continent. So the effect of the clearing of those tracks was concentrated on those oceans. The fact that they could warm more easily than expected, only mattered when they started to warm. And then a sufficient area warmed sufficiently quickly to impact global ocean temperatures. That's the problem with snarky dismissals like the one that you just gave. Often they are missing some important point that will move the think you are ridiculing from ridiculous, to surprisingly reasonable. And if that happens, you're the one who looks bad. As an alternative, I would suggest curiosity questions. If there is no good answer, your point is still made. And if there is one, you will still look good. The only disadvantage is that you don't get the pleasure of that "gotcha" moment.
- tejohnso 3y agoEverything I've seen indicates scientists are completely flabbergasted with this six sigma warming. For example https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/06/14/record-warm-ocean-temperatures/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/06/14/record-war... Your theory is mentioned in the article and is far from a valid, complete explanation.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- sourthyme 3y agoI thought this was explained by excess greenhouse gases. Ref: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content#:~:text=Rising%20amounts%20of%20greenhouse%20gases,over%20the%20past%20few%20decades https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/....
- __xor_eax_eax 3y agoOver the long-term, yes. But the very recent, very acute 1.5 degree warming is unexpected against pure CO2-based models. I've read a bunch of theories (reduction in certain type of emissions from ships being a prevalent one), but nothing conclusive
- tejohnso 3y agoWe are increasing the energy imbalance in the earth system. A large part of that energy is absorbed by oceans. And at the same time our temperature buffers like the arctic sea ice, are disappearing. I think we're seeing the same thing that is always seen when a complex system is sufficiently perturbed. Loss of stability, chaotic behaviour, and eventual collapse.