3 ms·
End Times by Peter Turchin review – can we predict the collapse of societies?
- coldtea 3y ago>can we predict the collapse of societies? We sure have great real time training material for that!
- 082349872349872 3y agoFor comparison, previous cyclic theories, esp. anacyclosis: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_cycle_theory#Polybius https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_cycle_theory#Polybius I find Polybius' anacyclosis model predictive (as long as we are charitable) of current US politics: the Ds believe only they are preventing democracy from degenerating further into oligarchy, and the Rs believe only they are preventing democracy from degenerating further into ochlocracy. (Compare Thucydides 5.84, in which the Melian few covertly meet with the Athenian envoys instead of having them address the Melian many. Truly this "dialogue" has many lessons beyond what the strong and weak do and suffer.)